43.0360, -77.4230

1. Fri2 AM71°24%12 mph
2. 3 AM71°21%12 mph
3. 4 AM70°36%10 mph
4. 5 AM68°60%8 mph
5. 6 AM65°63%8 mph
6. 7 AM64°77%10 mph
7. 8 AM62°96%9 mph
8. 9 AM60°90%9 mph
9. 10 AM61°77%8 mph
10. 11 AM61°51%9 mph
11. 12 PM61°16%9 mph
12. 1 PM63°6%10 mph
13. 2 PM62°5%10 mph
14. 3 PM63°6%10 mph
15. 4 PM63°2%12 mph
16. 5 PM62°10 mph
17. 6 PM61°10 mph
18. 7 PM59°10 mph
19. 8 PM57°9 mph
20. 9 PM56°9 mph
21. 10 PM54°9 mph
22. 11 PM53°8 mph
23. Sat12 AM52°7 mph
24. 1 AM51°6 mph
25. 2 AM50°6 mph
26. 3 AM50°5 mph
27. 4 AM48°5 mph
28. 5 AM47°3 mph
29. 6 AM46°3 mph
30. 7 AM46°2 mph
31. 8 AM47°2 mph
32. 9 AM50°3 mph
33. 10 AM55°5 mph
34. 11 AM58°6 mph
35. 12 PM60°6 mph
36. 1 PM61°6 mph
37. 2 PM61°6 mph
38. 3 PM62°6 mph
39. 4 PM61°7 mph
40. 5 PM60°6 mph
41. 6 PM58°5 mph
42. 7 PM53°3 mph
43. 8 PM51°3 mph
44. 9 PM49°2 mph
45. 10 PM48°2 mph
46. 11 PM47°2 mph
47. Sun12 AM46°2 mph
48. 1 AM45°2 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodayOct 264°46°Rain Showers96%0.42 inwind 13 mph · gusts 18 mph
2. SatOct 362°41°Mostly Sunny0%wind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
3. SunOct 469°48°Mostly Sunny3%wind 10 mph · gusts 17 mph
4. MonOct 558°39°Mostly Sunny3%wind 17 mph · gusts 29 mph
5. TueOct 655°38°Sunny0%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
6. WedOct 765°48°Sunny6%wind 8 mph · gusts 14 mph
7. ThuOct 867°49°Mostly Sunny14%wind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
8. FriOct 965°45°18%wind 14 mph · gusts 25 mph
9. SatOct 1063°47°National Blend7%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
10. SunOct 1167°48°National Blend32%0.06 inwind 13 mph · gusts 23 mph
11. MonOct 12~61°54°Model mean0.19 in
12. TueOct 13~61°50°Model mean0.12 in
13. WedOct 14~64°46°Model mean0.01 in
14. ThuOct 15~69°48°Model mean0.02 in
15. FriOct 16~78°57°Model mean
16. SatOct 17~68°58°Model mean0.04 in

• Feels like71°
• WindWSW 12 mphgusts 18 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity74%
• Dew point62°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
• Moonrise10:44 PMMoonset 2:17 PM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous64% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodayOct 264°45°NWS grid 64° / 46°rain 99%thunder 11%0.36 inwind 10 mph · gusts 18 mph
2. SatOct 361°40°NWS grid 62° / 41°rain 0%wind 7 mph
3. SunOct 468°48°NWS grid 69° / 48°rain 9%wind 10 mph · gusts 17 mph
4. MonOct 558°38°NWS grid 58° / 39°rain 6%wind 17 mph · gusts 29 mph
5. TueOct 654°37°NWS grid 55° / 38°rain 0%wind 8 mph · gusts 14 mph
6. WedOct 764°47°NWS grid 65° / 48°rain 7%wind 8 mph · gusts 14 mph
7. ThuOct 867°47°NWS grid 67° / 49°rain 11%wind 12 mph · gusts 21 mph
8. FriOct 963°44°NWS grid 65° / 45°rain 19%wind 14 mph · gusts 24 mph
9. SatOct 1063°47°Beyond the NWS gridrain 7%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
10. SunOct 1167°48°Beyond the NWS gridrain 32%0.06 inwind 13 mph · gusts 23 mph
11. MonOct 1261°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 28%wind 13 mph · gusts 22 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sat Oct 17, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and low

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight: 1 dark, clear hours without a bright moon, from 10:00 PM. Rated fair.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: fly with caution (gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Sat 8 AM to 6 PM, 10 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:38 AM to sunrise 7:08 AM, and sunset 6:49 PM to 7:19 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Sat 11 AM to 8 PM 9 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 4 PM to 9 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 11 PM to Tue 6 AM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
• Tue 9 AM to 8 PM 11 hours, every hour within the rules
• Wed 8 AM to Thu 7 AM 23 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 6 PM to 10 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Wednesday, rated good.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Overnight60° · 60% · W 8–12 mph

   Rain showers likely. Cloudy. Low around 60, with temperatures rising to around 68 overnight. West wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

2. Friday64° · 96% · NW 8–12 mph

   Rain showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 64. Northwest wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

3. Friday Night46° · NW 3–10 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Northwest wind 3 to 10 mph.

4. Saturday62° · N 2–7 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. North wind 2 to 7 mph.

5. Saturday Night41° · E 5 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 41. East wind around 5 mph.

6. Sunday69° · 1% · S 5–10 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

7. Sunday Night48° · 3% · SW 7–10 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph.

8. Monday58° · 2% · W 10–17 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. West wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

9. Monday Night39° · 1% · NW 6–16 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

10. Tuesday55° · NW 8 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 55.

11. Tuesday Night38° · W 2–6 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

12. Wednesday65° · SW 5–8 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 65.

13. Wednesday Night48° · 6% · SW 8 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

14. Thursday67° · 11% · SW 10 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS41 KBUF 011851
HWOBUF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-021900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
251 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

$$

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-021900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
251 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Reading the outlooks…

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 2 and the first fall freeze around October 17: a growing season of about 167 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 2; one spring in ten still has one after May 18.

Climate of 43.04, -77.42: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.