Current weather · Oct 2, 1:27 PM EDT

41.7450, -79.2650

63°

Slight chance of light rain showersFeels like 63° · Humidity 90%NWS forecast for this hour; no recent station reportForecast by NWS State College, PA · grid 16,94
High
65°
Low
59°
Rain today
97%
Sunrise
7:15 AM
Sunset
6:57 PM

Hour by hour

NWS forecast grid

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

Every hour as a table48 hours
TimeWeatherTemperatureFeels likeDew pointHumidityChanceAmountSnowDirWindGustSky coverThunderPressureVisibilityCeiling
Fri 1 PMSlight chance of light rain showers63°63°58°90%21%0.05 inNNW6 mph16 mph96%1%——
Fri 2 PM62°62°56°87%11%NNW6 mph16 mph97%——
Fri 3 PM62°62°54°78%9%NNW6 mph16 mph89%——
Fri 4 PM61°61°51°72%0%NNW6 mph16 mph82%——
Fri 5 PM60°60°50°69%0%NNW6 mph16 mph74%——
Fri 6 PM59°59°50°72%0%NNW6 mph15 mph84%——
Fri 7 PM56°56°50°77%0%NNW5 mph14 mph87%——
Fri 8 PM54°54°50°80%0%NNW3 mph13 mph76%——
Fri 9 PM53°53°48°80%0%NNW3 mph13 mph69%——
Fri 10 PM51°51°47°86%0%N5 mph14 mph46%——
Fri 11 PM50°48°47°86%0%N5 mph14 mph31%——
Sat 12 AM49°48°46°93%0%N3 mph13 mph34%——
Sat 1 AM48°47°46°93%0%N3 mph12 mph14%——
Sat 2 AM47°46°45°93%0%N3 mph10 mph15%——
Sat 3 AM46°45°45°96%0%N3 mph10 mph19%——
Sat 4 AM45°44°44°100%0%NNE3 mph9 mph19%——
Sat 5 AM45°44°44°100%0%NNE3 mph9 mph19%——
Sat 6 AM44°42°44°100%0%NNE3 mph9 mph15%——
Sat 7 AM43°41°43°100%0%NE3 mph9 mph13%——
Sat 8 AM45°44°45°100%0%NE3 mph9 mph9%——
Sat 9 AM46°45°46°93%0%NE3 mph9 mph10%——
Sat 10 AM52°52°47°71%0%NE3 mph10 mph8%——
Sat 11 AM56°56°45°62%0%ENE3 mph10 mph11%——
Sat 12 PM60°60°44°53%0%ENE3 mph10 mph7%——
Sat 1 PM62°62°43°48%0%ENE3 mph9 mph1%——
Sat 2 PM63°63°43°43%0%ENE3 mph9 mph1%——
Sat 3 PM64°64°43°43%0%ENE3 mph8 mph1%——
Sat 4 PM63°63°43°44%0%ENE2 mph8 mph3%——
Sat 5 PM63°63°44°43%0%ENE2 mph7 mph6%——
Sat 6 PM62°62°46°48%0%ENE2 mph7 mph6%——
Sat 7 PM55°55°46°57%0%ENE2 mph7 mph1%——
Sat 8 PM52°52°46°66%0%ENE2 mph7 mph2%——
Sat 9 PM50°50°45°77%0%E2 mph9 mph0%——
Sat 10 PM49°49°44°80%0%E2 mph10 mph5%——
Sat 11 PM48°47°44°83%0%E3 mph12 mph9%——
Sun 12 AM47°46°44°83%0%E3 mph12 mph11%——
Sun 1 AM46°45°43°83%0%ESE3 mph12 mph14%——
Sun 2 AM46°45°43°83%0%ESE3 mph12 mph16%——
Sun 3 AM45°44°43°86%0%ESE3 mph12 mph18%——
Sun 4 AM45°43°43°86%0%ESE5 mph12 mph19%——
Sun 5 AM46°44°43°89%0%ESE5 mph13 mph21%——
Sun 6 AM46°44°43°86%0%SE5 mph14 mph32%——
Sun 7 AM46°44°44°93%0%SE5 mph15 mph42%——
Sun 8 AM48°46°45°89%2%SE5 mph16 mph53%——
Sun 9 AM51°51°47°89%2%SSE5 mph16 mph55%——
Sun 10 AM55°55°48°83%2%SSE6 mph16 mph58%——
Sun 11 AM59°59°50°78%2%S6 mph16 mph60%——
Sun 12 PM62°62°51°72%2%S6 mph16 mph56%——

The next 8 days

NWS forecast grid published Oct 2, 11:51 AM EDT, daily figures derived from the hourly
  1. TodayOct 265°59°Slight Chance Rain Showers97%0.32 inwind 9 mph · gusts 20 mph
  2. SatOct 364°44°Sunny0%wind 3 mph · gusts 13 mph
  3. SunOct 468°47°Mostly Sunny3%wind 6 mph · gusts 16 mph
  4. MonOct 558°36°Mostly Sunny0%wind 9 mph · gusts 24 mph
  5. TueOct 658°36°Areas Of Frost then Sunny0%wind 3 mph · gusts 13 mph
  6. WedOct 765°44°Areas Of Frost then Sunny2%wind 6 mph · gusts 16 mph
  7. ThuOct 868°47°Mostly Sunny15%wind 7 mph · gusts 20 mph
  8. FriOct 966°44°17%wind 8 mph · gusts 22 mph

Right now

NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow
  • Feels like63°
  • WindNNW 6 mphgusts 16 mph
  • Radar over this pointno reading
  • Humidity90%
  • Dew point58°
  • Pressure—
  • UV index—
  • Air quality—
  • Visibility—
  • Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
  • Moonrise10:58 PMMoonset 2:18 PM
  • Moon phaseWaning gibbous64% lit

The next 90 days

NOAA GHCN normals and records at Jamestown (Awos) (JHW) · Climate Prediction Center outlooks

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Fri Oct 9, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature leanequal chances40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec-20°0°20°40°60°80°TodayNov 1Dec 1

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

Week ofNormalWarmest on recordColdest on recordTemperature leanPrecipitation lean
Oct 264° / 44°87° (2019)22° (1987)equal chances · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 963° / 40°86° (2007)18° (1987)near normal most likely · days 8 to 1433% chance below normal · days 8 to 14
Oct 1658° / 38°83° (1989)19° (1974)equal chances · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 2355° / 38°81° (1991)13° (1985)equal chances · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 3053° / 34°79° (1961)13° (1985)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec
Nov 651° / 30°79° (2015)10° (1991)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec
Nov 1348° / 31°73° (1990)8° (1986)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec
Nov 2045° / 27°73° (1991)3° (2000)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec
Nov 2745° / 29°72° (1990)-5° (1976)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec
Dec 437° / 26°73° (1982)-7° (2025)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec
Dec 1136° / 22°67° (2015)-21° (1988)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec
Dec 1833° / 20°64° (2013)-15° (1989)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec
Dec 2535° / 21°67° (1982)-18° (1980)40% chance above normal · Oct to Decequal chances · Oct to Dec

Health and activities

Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollen

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Health

  • Arthritisnext 24 hModeratehumid
  • Sinus pressurenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Common coldtodayLowmild
  • FlutodayLowmild
  • Migrainenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
  • Heat stresstodayLowmild
  • SunburntodayLowweak sun
  • Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
  • SleepingtonightIdealcool, quiet night

Outdoors

  • RunningtodayIdealfine conditions
  • HikingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • BikingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • GolftodayIdealfine conditions
  • FishingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Boating and paddlingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Beach and pooltodayFaircool
  • CampingtonightIdealfine conditions
  • StargazingtonightPoorpartly cloudy

Travel

  • Air travelnext 24 hIdealclear skies
  • Drivingnext 24 hIdealclear roads

Home and garden

  • Lawn mowingtodayVery goodwet ground
  • GardeningtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Outdoor entertainingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Drying laundry outsidetodayFairlittle sun
  • Painting and outdoor projectstodayGoodchance of rain
  • FrosttonightLowmild

Pests

  • MosquitoestodayVery highwarm
  • TickstodayVery highwarm
  • Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
  • Outdoor peststodayHighhumid

Stargazing

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moon

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated fair.

Night ofRatingDarkClear hoursClear and moonlessMoon litTransparency (est.)DewStrongest wind
FridayFair8:29 PM to 5:44 AM5 of 10None60%Poor7 h5 mph
SaturdayGood8:28 PM to 5:45 AM9 of 104 h from 8:00 PM50%Fair6 h5 mph
SundayPoor8:26 PM to 5:46 AM0 of 10None39%10 h5 mph
MondayFair8:24 PM to 5:47 AM4 of 101 h from 2:00 AM29%Poor1 h5 mph
TuesdayGood8:22 PM to 5:48 AM10 of 1010 h from 8:00 PM20%Poor2 mph
WednesdayPoor8:21 PM to 5:49 AM0 of 10None12%3 mph
ThursdayPoor8:19 PM to 5:50 AM0 of 10None6%5 h3 mph

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour and blue hour

Computed from the sun and moon positions
DayBlue hour, morningGolden hour, morningGolden hour, eveningBlue hour, evening
Fri6:47 AM to 6:58 AM6:58 AM to 7:52 AM6:20 PM to 7:14 PM7:14 PM to 7:25 PM
Sat6:48 AM to 6:59 AM6:59 AM to 7:53 AM6:18 PM to 7:12 PM7:12 PM to 7:23 PM
Sun6:49 AM to 7:00 AM7:00 AM to 7:54 AM6:17 PM to 7:11 PM7:11 PM to 7:21 PM
Mon6:51 AM to 7:01 AM7:01 AM to 7:55 AM6:15 PM to 7:09 PM7:09 PM to 7:20 PM
Tue6:52 AM to 7:02 AM7:02 AM to 7:57 AM6:13 PM to 7:07 PM7:07 PM to 7:18 PM
Wed6:53 AM to 7:03 AM7:03 AM to 7:58 AM6:11 PM to 7:06 PM7:06 PM to 7:16 PM
Thu6:54 AM to 7:04 AM7:04 AM to 7:59 AM6:10 PM to 7:04 PM7:04 PM to 7:15 PM
NESWSRSSMRMS
  • SR Sunrise 7:15 AM, 94° E
  • SS Sunset 6:57 PM, 266° W
  • MR Moonrise 10:58 PM, 52° NE
  • MS Moonset 2:18 PM, 309° NW
  • Waning gibbous, 64% lit

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

Drone flying

NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107

This hour: fly with caution (gusts near or over your limit). Next good stretch: Sat 8 AM to 6 PM, 10 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:45 AM to sunrise 7:15 AM, and sunset 6:57 PM to 7:27 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Fri6 PM
Sat12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sun12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Caution No-fly

HourVerdictWind (mph)400 ft est. (mph)Gust (mph)RainVisibilityCloud allowsTempKpWhy
Fri 1 PMCaution681921%63°gusts near or over your limit
Fri 2 PMCaution681911%62°gusts near or over your limit
Fri 3 PMCaution68199%62°gusts near or over your limit
Fri 4 PMCaution68190%61°gusts near or over your limit
Fri 5 PMGood67180%60°nothing against it
Fri 6 PMCaution68180%59°civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Fri 7 PMCaution57160%56°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 8 PMCaution38170%54°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 9 PMCaution38170%53°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 10 PMNo-fly518270%51°gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 11 PMNo-fly518270%50°gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 12 AMCaution314230%49°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 1 AMCaution314220%48°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 2 AMCaution314210%47°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 3 AMCaution314210%46°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 4 AMCaution314190%45°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 5 AMCaution314190%45°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 6 AMCaution314190%44°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 7 AMCaution34100%43°civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Sat 8 AMGood34100%45°nothing against it
Sat 9 AMGood34100%46°nothing against it
Sat 10 AMGood34110%52°nothing against it
Sat 11 AMGood34110%56°nothing against it
Sat 12 PMGood34110%60°nothing against it

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Spraying and field work

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

  • Fri 6 PM to 10 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Sat 10 AM to 4 PM 6 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Sun 1 PM to 8 PM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Mon 9 PM to Tue 12 AM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Tue 11 AM to 6 PM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Wed 9 AM to 4 PM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Wed 6 PM to Thu 4 AM 10 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Thu 7 PM to 10 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
Fri6 PM
Sat12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sun12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Marginal No

Field days

DayDaytimeChance of rainRainLowest humidityStrongest windDry days in a rowHay drying
FridayWet97%0.32 in69%7 mph
SaturdayDry0%0.00 in43%3 mph7 d
SundayDry3%0.00 in65%6 mph6 d
MondayDry0%0.00 in45%9 mph5 dGood
TuesdayDry0%0.00 in43%3 mph4 d
WednesdayDry0%0.00 in38%6 mph3 dGood
ThursdayDry6%0.00 in46%7 mph2 dGood
FridayDry12%0.00 in44%8 mph1 dGood

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

Solunar times

Computed from the moon’s position

The best-rated day this week is Wednesday, rated good.

DayRatingMajor periodsMinor periodsMoonSunrise, sunset
Fri Fair5:06 AM to 7:06 AM5:37 PM to 7:37 PM1:48 PM to 2:48 PM10:28 PM to 11:28 PM 64%7:15 AM, 6:57 PM
Sat Fair6:08 AM to 8:08 AM6:39 PM to 8:39 PM2:42 PM to 3:42 PM 54%7:16 AM, 6:55 PM
Sun Fair7:08 AM to 9:08 AM7:37 PM to 9:37 PM11:40 PM to 12:40 AM3:25 PM to 4:25 PM 43%7:17 AM, 6:54 PM
Mon Fair8:04 AM to 10:04 AM8:31 PM to 10:31 PM12:56 AM to 1:56 AM3:59 PM to 4:59 PM 33%7:18 AM, 6:52 PM
Tue Poor8:56 AM to 10:56 AM9:21 PM to 11:21 PM2:12 AM to 3:12 AM4:27 PM to 5:27 PM 23%7:19 AM, 6:50 PM
Wed Good9:45 AM to 11:45 AM10:08 PM to 12:08 AM3:26 AM to 4:26 AM4:51 PM to 5:51 PM 15%7:20 AM, 6:49 PM
Thu Good10:31 AM to 12:31 PM10:53 PM to 12:53 AM4:37 AM to 5:37 AM5:12 PM to 6:12 PM 8%7:22 AM, 6:47 PM

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

In words

NWS forecast periods, as issued
  1. This Afternoon65° · 21% · NW 6 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  2. Tonight43° · N 6 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. North wind around 6 mph.

  3. Saturday64° · NE 3 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 64. Northeast wind around 3 mph.

  4. Saturday Night44° · E 5 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 44. East wind around 5 mph.

  5. Sunday68° · 3% · S 6 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. South wind around 6 mph.

  6. Sunday Night47° · 3% · W 5 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

  7. Monday58° · NW 5–9 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

  8. Monday Night36° · NW 1–8 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 36.

  9. Tuesday58° · NW 3 mph

    Areas of frost before 9am. Sunny, with a high near 58.

  10. Tuesday Night36° · NE 2 mph

    Areas of frost after 3am. Mostly clear, with a low around 36.

  11. Wednesday65° · S 2–6 mph

    Areas of frost before 8am. Sunny, with a high near 65.

  12. Wednesday Night44° · 2% · S 5 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

  13. Thursday68° · 6% · SW 3–7 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

  14. Thursday Night47° · 17% · SW 5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers after 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

The forecaster’s discussion

NWS State College, PA · issued Oct 2, 7:25 AM EDT

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

What Has Changed

No significant changes

KEY Messages

1) A cold frontal passage today will bring a few to several hour period of showers in most places, followed by a weekend cooldown and a frost/freeze risk early next week

2) Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold frontal passage today will bring a few to several hour period of showers in most places, followed by a weekend cooldown and a frost/freeze risk early next week

Our recent warm spell (with daytime high temps some 8 to 12 deg F above normal and nighttime low temperature departures even greater) will exit to the east as clouds and the chance for showers increase today with the arrival of a cold front.

Prior to the cold frontal passage (across the NW Mtns late this morning, and elsewhere across the Central Mtns and Lower Susq Valley this afternoon and evening respectively) max temps will once again come in well above normal (+10-15 deg F) over the SE half of the state and still near normal across the Northwest.

Temperatures will become seasonably cooler this weekend into next week, when another stronger cold front will push through Sunday night and early Monday.

The second surge of the cooldown will be highlighted by frost potential across the western and central Alleghenies Monday and Tuesday night with min temps near the freezing mark across the northern tier.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Not much rain expected for the first 7-10 days of October

We'll have a few, generally limited opportunities for rain over the next 7+ days in CPA. The first will come this morning over the Northwest Mtns as cold front over the Lower Great Lakes drifts gradually southeast.

02/00Z High Res model members and the HREF are a little more robust with rainfall amounts across the CWA today (compared to the 12Z Thu run) and even ramp up the intensity of the showers across the SE third of the state with a potential for TSRA in the 20+ percent range given some small areas of MU CAPE values of up to 750 J/KG during the mid to late afternoon with temps in the L80s and sfc Tds in the mid 60s.

The second opportunity for rain is on Sunday focused mainly over the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. High confidence in a dry stretch for much of next week as large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern.

Aviation · 12Z Friday Through Tuesday

Cloud cover will gradually increase/thicken-up across the NW half of the state this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front, while the SE half of the CWA sees locally dense fog and times of LIFR/VLIFR until 12-13Z followed by mostly sunny skies/VFR into the early- mid afternoon hours.

Rain associated with this front will begin 12-13Z around KBFD. LLWS will be a concern this morning as a 40 to 60 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves in from the west ahead of the front. LLWS is most likely at BFD and JST, though AOO, UNV, and IPT could see LLWS through about 14-15Z.

Showers with lowering ceilings will begin elsewhere throughout the afternoon reaching UNV and IPT around 18Z, and finally reaching the southeastern terminals afterwards. Localized heavier rain may be on tap with PWATs approaching 1.5 to 2 inches for LNS, JST, AOO, and MDT. Visibilities will primarily remain in MVFR during the showers, but periods of IFR are possible. No thunder mentions added because of weak CAPE primarily below freezing level.

Winds take on a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern behind the front. Drier air will filter in behind the front with improvements to flight restrictions from west to east primarily after 23Z Friday to 2Z Saturday. JST and AOO look the most likely candidates to hang onto MVFR conditions later into tomorrow night.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR favored behind the FROPA. AM fog possible.

Sun...Restrictions possible as a weak low pressure system develops along the residual frontal boundary over the Mid- Atlantic. -RA possible, more so across southern and eastern PA.

Mon...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog possible.

Tue...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog/frost possible, especially across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels.

Climate

September 2026 precipitation rankings

IPT: 11th wettest (6.84") MDT: 26th wettest (4.72") AOO: 9th wettest (5.58") BFD: 10th wettest (4.85") JST: 3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000 STC: 6th wettest (7.90")

CTP Watches / Warnings / Advisories

None.

Hazardous weather outlook Oct 2, 2:55 AM EDT

The office’s own seven-day heads-up for spotters and emergency managers.

FLUS41 KCTP 020655
HWOCTP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
255 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-030700-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
255 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Frost could harm sensitive unprotected vegetation Monday night and
Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

The outlooks beyond

SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this point

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Severe weather

  1. Day 1 · Fri Oct 2No risk area
  2. Day 2 · Sat Oct 3No risk area
  3. Day 3 · Sun Oct 4No risk area
  4. Day 4 · Mon Oct 5No risk area
  5. Day 5 · Tue Oct 6No risk area
  6. Day 6 · Wed Oct 7No risk area
  7. Day 7 · Thu Oct 8No risk area
  8. Day 8 · Fri Oct 9No risk area

Rainfall

  1. Day 1 · Fri Oct 20.10 in
  2. Day 2 · Sat Oct 3Under 0.01 in
  3. Day 3 · Sun Oct 4Under 0.01 in
  4. Day 4-5 · Oct 5–Oct 6Under 0.01 in
  5. Day 6-7 · Oct 7–Oct 80.01 in

The rainfall forecast on the map, days 1 to 7

Six to fourteen days

  1. Days 6–10 · TemperatureNear normal most likelyOct 7–Oct 11
  2. Days 6–10 · PrecipitationNear normal most likelyOct 7–Oct 11
  3. Days 8–14 · TemperatureNear normal most likelyOct 9–Oct 15
  4. Days 8–14 · Precipitation33% chance below normalOct 9–Oct 15

Frost and climate

NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Warren

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 4 and the first fall freeze around October 21: a growing season of about 168 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 6; one spring in ten still has one after May 22.

Climate of 41.74, -79.27: normals, records and every month

Everything else on the grid

NWS forecast grid · 27 elements

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

ElementFriSatSunMonTueWedThuFri
Wet bulb globe temperature max63°60°64°54°53°59°62°61°
Wind chill min48°41°43°41°36°34°44°45°
Chance of thunder max7%0%2%0%0%3%5%5%
Mixing height max2,300 ft3,900 ft3,000 ft5,400 ft4,200 ft3,600 ft4,500 ft5,100 ft
Transport wind max15 mph10 mph15 mph18 mph10 mph12 mph15 mph18 mph
Twenty-foot wind max7 mph5 mph6 mph7 mph3 mph6 mph6 mph7 mph
Davis stability index max121
Atmospheric dispersion index max183912
Low visibility risk max896

Against the record

NOAA GHCN · Jamestown (Awos) (JHW) · 28 mi away

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.

DayForecastNormalRecord highRecord low
Fri Oct 265° / 59°65° / 42°87° (2019)29° (1960)
Sat Oct 364° / 44°66° / 43°84° (1991)24° (1985)
Sun Oct 468° / 47°65° / 44°86° (2023)23° (1974)
Mon Oct 558° / 36°64° / 44°83° (2023)22° (1987)
Tue Oct 658° / 36°63° / 42°85° (2007)31° (2004)
Wed Oct 765° / 44°65° / 42°85° (2007)28° (1999)
Thu Oct 868° / 47°65° / 42°83° (2007)25° (1984)
Fri Oct 966° / 44°65° / 41°86° (2007)25° (1987)

Sun and moon

DayCivil twilightSunriseSunsetCivil twilightDaylightMoon
Fri6:47 AM7:15 AM6:57 PM7:25 PM11 h 42 min Waning gibbous · 64% lit
Sat6:48 AM7:16 AM6:55 PM7:23 PM11 h 39 min Last quarter · 54% lit
Sun6:49 AM7:17 AM6:54 PM7:21 PM11 h 37 min Last quarter · 43% lit
Mon6:51 AM7:18 AM6:52 PM7:20 PM11 h 34 min Waning crescent · 33% lit
Tue6:52 AM7:19 AM6:50 PM7:18 PM11 h 31 min Waning crescent · 23% lit
Wed6:53 AM7:20 AM6:49 PM7:16 PM11 h 29 min Waning crescent · 15% lit
Thu6:54 AM7:22 AM6:47 PM7:15 PM11 h 25 min Waning crescent · 8% lit
Fri6:55 AM7:23 AM6:45 PM7:13 PM11 h 22 min Waning crescent · 3% lit

Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).

What is here

Seven days
The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
Hour by hour
Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
Everything else on the grid
The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
The discussion
The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
Beyond the week
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
Against the record
Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
The next 90 days
The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.

Common questions

Where does this forecast come from?

From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.

How far ahead does it go?

The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.

Why is this different from the app on my phone?

Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.

What is a place’s address here?

Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.

What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from