Current weather · Sep 26, 5:14 AM EDT
41.4410, -72.1410
56°
- High
- 62°
- Low
- 55°
- Rain today
- 90%
- Sunrise
- 6:40 AM
- Sunset
- 6:39 PM
Hour by hour
NWS forecast gridScroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.
Every hour as a table48 hours
| Time | Weather | Temperature | Feels like | Dew point | Humidity | Chance | Amount | Snow | Dir | Wind | Gust | Sky cover | Thunder | Pressure | Visibility | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 5 AM | Chance of light rain | 56° | 56° | 51° | 83% | 49% | 0.00 in | NNE | 24 mph | 46 mph | 81% | 11% | — | 5 mi | 2,600 ft | |
| Sat 6 AM | Chance of light rain | 55° | 55° | 51° | 86% | 40% | 0.00 in | NNE | 28 mph | 46 mph | 78% | 11% | — | 5 mi | 2,000 ft | |
| Sat 7 AM | Chance of light rain | 55° | 55° | 52° | 90% | 40% | 0.00 in | NNE | 26 mph | 46 mph | 86% | 11% | — | 5 mi | 1,500 ft | |
| Sat 8 AM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and light rain | 57° | 57° | 53° | 86% | 75% | 0.03 in | NNE | 26 mph | 46 mph | 90% | 16% | — | 4 mi | 1,300 ft | |
| Sat 9 AM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and light rain | 56° | 56° | 53° | 90% | 75% | 0.03 in | NNE | 25 mph | 46 mph | 90% | 16% | — | 4 mi | 1,200 ft | |
| Sat 10 AM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and light rain | 59° | 59° | 55° | 87% | 75% | 0.03 in | NNE | 25 mph | 46 mph | 90% | 16% | — | 4 mi | 1,200 ft | |
| Sat 11 AM | Light rain | 59° | 59° | 55° | 87% | 85% | 0.03 in | NNE | 24 mph | 46 mph | 95% | 13% | — | 5 mi | 1,100 ft | |
| Sat 12 PM | Light rain | 60° | 60° | 55° | 84% | 82% | 0.03 in | NNE | 26 mph | 46 mph | 94% | 13% | — | 5 mi | 1,200 ft | |
| Sat 1 PM | Light rain | 62° | 62° | 56° | 81% | 82% | 0.03 in | NNE | 26 mph | 46 mph | 94% | 13% | — | 5 mi | 1,200 ft | |
| Sat 2 PM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and moderate rain | 60° | 60° | 53° | 78% | 90% | 0.05 in | NNE | 25 mph | 46 mph | 98% | 22% | — | 2.0 mi | 1,100 ft | |
| Sat 3 PM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and moderate rain | 60° | 60° | 54° | 81% | 90% | 0.05 in | NNE | 26 mph | 46 mph | 98% | 22% | — | 2.0 mi | 1,100 ft | |
| Sat 4 PM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and moderate rain | 60° | 60° | 53° | 78% | 90% | 0.05 in | NNE | 28 mph | 46 mph | 98% | 22% | — | 2.0 mi | 1,200 ft | |
| Sat 5 PM | Moderate rain likely | 59° | 59° | 55° | 87% | 59% | 0.05 in | NNE | 25 mph | 46 mph | 90% | 14% | — | 3 mi | 1,000 ft | |
| Sat 6 PM | Moderate rain | 59° | 59° | 55° | 87% | 87% | 0.05 in | NNE | 26 mph | 46 mph | 96% | 14% | — | 3 mi | 1,000 ft | |
| Sat 7 PM | Moderate rain | 57° | 57° | 55° | 93% | 87% | 0.05 in | NNE | 26 mph | 47 mph | 96% | 14% | — | 3 mi | 1,000 ft | |
| Sat 8 PM | Moderate rain | 57° | 57° | 55° | 93% | 80% | 0.07 in | NNE | 25 mph | 46 mph | 94% | 9% | — | 3 mi | 1,000 ft | |
| Sat 9 PM | Moderate rain | 55° | 55° | 55° | 100% | 80% | 0.07 in | NNE | 26 mph | 46 mph | 93% | 9% | — | 3 mi | 900 ft | |
| Sat 10 PM | Moderate rain | 56° | 56° | 55° | 96% | 80% | 0.07 in | NNE | 29 mph | 46 mph | 93% | 9% | — | 3 mi | 800 ft | |
| Sat 11 PM | Moderate rain | 56° | 56° | 55° | 96% | 90% | 0.07 in | NNE | 28 mph | 46 mph | 98% | 14% | — | 3 mi | 800 ft | |
| Sun 12 AM | Moderate rain | 56° | 56° | 56° | 100% | 99% | 0.07 in | NNE | 26 mph | 46 mph | 100% | 14% | — | 3 mi | 800 ft | |
| Sun 1 AM | Moderate rain | 56° | 56° | 56° | 100% | 99% | 0.07 in | NNE | 24 mph | 46 mph | 100% | 14% | — | 3 mi | 900 ft | |
| Sun 2 AM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and moderate rain | 57° | 57° | 57° | 100% | 96% | 0.14 in | NNE | 23 mph | 46 mph | 100% | 20% | — | 2.0 mi | 900 ft | |
| Sun 3 AM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and moderate rain | 57° | 57° | 57° | 100% | 96% | 0.14 in | NE | 21 mph | 46 mph | 100% | 20% | — | 2.0 mi | 900 ft | |
| Sun 4 AM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and moderate rain | 58° | 58° | 58° | 100% | 96% | 0.14 in | NE | 18 mph | 45 mph | 100% | 20% | — | 2.0 mi | 900 ft | |
| Sun 5 AM | Slight chance of thunderstorms and moderate rain | 58° | 58° | 58° | 100% | 97% | 0.14 in | NE | 17 mph | 41 mph | 100% | 16% | — | 2.0 mi | 800 ft | |
| Sun 6 AM | Moderate rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 59° | 59° | 59° | 100% | 94% | 0.14 in | NE | 14 mph | 38 mph | 96% | 16% | — | 2.0 mi | 700 ft | |
| Sun 7 AM | Moderate rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 59° | 59° | 59° | 100% | 94% | 0.14 in | ENE | 12 mph | 37 mph | 96% | 16% | — | 2.0 mi | 600 ft | |
| Sun 8 AM | Light rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 60° | 60° | 60° | 100% | 78% | 0.04 in | ENE | 21 mph | 35 mph | 86% | 21% | — | 4 mi | 500 ft | |
| Sun 9 AM | Light rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 61° | 61° | 61° | 100% | 78% | 0.04 in | ENE | 21 mph | 35 mph | 88% | 21% | — | 4 mi | 500 ft | |
| Sun 10 AM | Light rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 63° | 63° | 63° | 100% | 78% | 0.04 in | ENE | 20 mph | 35 mph | 86% | 21% | — | 4 mi | 600 ft | |
| Sun 11 AM | Light rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 64° | 64° | 64° | 100% | 83% | 0.04 in | ENE | 17 mph | 32 mph | 89% | 19% | — | 4 mi | 600 ft | |
| Sun 12 PM | Light rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 64° | 64° | 64° | 100% | 83% | 0.04 in | ENE | 17 mph | 31 mph | 89% | 19% | — | 4 mi | 600 ft | |
| Sun 1 PM | Light rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 65° | 65° | 65° | 100% | 83% | 0.04 in | ENE | 16 mph | 29 mph | 89% | 19% | — | 4 mi | 600 ft | |
| Sun 2 PM | Moderate rain showers and chance of thunderstorms | 66° | 66° | 65° | 97% | 92% | 0.07 in | ENE | 14 mph | 26 mph | 95% | 28% | — | 2.0 mi | 500 ft | |
| Sun 3 PM | Moderate rain showers and chance of thunderstorms | 66° | 66° | 65° | 97% | 92% | 0.07 in | ENE | 14 mph | 26 mph | 95% | 28% | — | 2.0 mi | 400 ft | |
| Sun 4 PM | Moderate rain showers and chance of thunderstorms | 66° | 66° | 65° | 97% | 92% | 0.07 in | ENE | 13 mph | 25 mph | 95% | 28% | — | 2.0 mi | 300 ft | |
| Sun 5 PM | Moderate rain showers and chance of thunderstorms | 65° | 65° | 64° | 97% | 89% | 0.07 in | ENE | 13 mph | 24 mph | 93% | 29% | — | 2.0 mi | 300 ft | |
| Sun 6 PM | Moderate rain showers and chance of thunderstorms | 65° | 65° | 64° | 97% | 89% | 0.07 in | ENE | 14 mph | 25 mph | 93% | 29% | — | 2.0 mi | 300 ft | |
| Sun 7 PM | Moderate rain showers and chance of thunderstorms | 64° | 64° | 63° | 97% | 89% | 0.07 in | ENE | 14 mph | 25 mph | 93% | 29% | — | 2.0 mi | 400 ft | |
| Sun 8 PM | Moderate rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 62° | 62° | 62° | 100% | 97% | 0.07 in | NE | 13 mph | 24 mph | 98% | 17% | — | 2.0 mi | 400 ft | |
| Sun 9 PM | Moderate rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 61° | 61° | 61° | 100% | 97% | 0.07 in | ENE | 14 mph | 24 mph | 98% | 17% | — | 2.0 mi | ||
| Sun 10 PM | Moderate rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 61° | 61° | 61° | 100% | 97% | 0.07 in | ENE | 14 mph | 23 mph | 98% | 17% | — | 2.0 mi | ||
| Sun 11 PM | Moderate rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 61° | 61° | 61° | 100% | 97% | 0.07 in | NE | 13 mph | 22 mph | 98% | 15% | — | 2.0 mi | ||
| Mon 12 AM | Moderate rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 61° | 61° | 61° | 100% | 97% | 0.07 in | NE | 13 mph | 21 mph | 98% | 15% | — | 2.0 mi | ||
| Mon 1 AM | Moderate rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms | 60° | 60° | 60° | 100% | 97% | 0.07 in | ENE | 12 mph | 21 mph | 98% | 15% | — | 2.0 mi | ||
| Mon 2 AM | Moderate rain showers | 60° | 60° | 60° | 100% | 94% | 0.06 in | ENE | 12 mph | 21 mph | 96% | 12% | — | 3 mi | ||
| Mon 3 AM | Moderate rain showers | 60° | 60° | 60° | 100% | 94% | 0.06 in | ENE | 12 mph | 21 mph | 96% | 12% | — | 3 mi | ||
| Mon 4 AM | Moderate rain showers | 60° | 60° | 60° | 100% | 94% | 0.06 in | ENE | 12 mph | 22 mph | 96% | 12% | — | 3 mi |
The next 16 days
NWS grid published Sep 26, 5:05 AM EDT to day 8, the National Blend of Models to day 10, the mean of GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AI to day 16- TodaySep 2662°55°Rainwind 29 mph · gusts 47 mph
- SunSep 2767°58°Showers And Thunderstormswind 26 mph · gusts 46 mph
- MonSep 2866°56°Rain Showerswind 13 mph · gusts 22 mph
- TueSep 2970°56°Partly Sunnywind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
- WedSep 3073°58°Mostly Sunnywind 5 mph
- ThuOct 173°59°Mostly Sunnywind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
- FriOct 274°57°Mostly Sunnywind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
- SatOct 372°57°wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
- SunOct 470°56°National Blendwind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
- MonOct 568°51°National Blendwind 9 mph · gusts 18 mph
- TueOct 6~61°46°Model mean
- WedOct 7~64°46°Model mean
- ThuOct 8~68°51°Model mean
- FriOct 9~68°58°Model mean
- SatOct 10~58°49°Model mean
- SunOct 11~62°46°Model mean
Right now
NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow- Feels like56°
- WindNNE 24 mphgusts 46 mph
- Radar over this pointno reading
- Humidity83%
- Dew point51°
- Pressure—
- UV index—
- Air quality—
- Visibility5 mi
- Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
- Moonrise6:26 PMMoonset 6:31 AM
- Moon phaseFull moon100% lit
The National Blend of Models
NOAA NBM v5.0 · run of Sep 26, 2:00 AM EDTNOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.
- TodaySep 2662°55°NWS grid 62° / 55°wind 23 mph · gusts 40 mph
- SunSep 2767°58°NWS grid 67° / 58°wind 24 mph · gusts 39 mph
- MonSep 2866°56°NWS grid 66° / 56°wind 13 mph · gusts 22 mph
- TueSep 2970°56°NWS grid 70° / 56°wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
- WedSep 3073°58°NWS grid 73° / 58°wind 5 mph
- ThuOct 173°59°NWS grid 73° / 59°wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
- FriOct 274°57°NWS grid 74° / 57°wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
- SatOct 372°57°NWS grid 72° / 57°wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
- SunOct 470°56°Beyond the NWS gridwind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
- MonOct 568°51°Beyond the NWS gridwind 9 mph · gusts 18 mph
- TueOct 664°—Beyond the NWS gridwind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
BlendNWS gridChance of rain, hourly
The models, side by side
HRRR Sep 26, 2:00 AM EDT · GFS Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · GEFS Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · ECMWF Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · ECMWF AI Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDTEach line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.
| Day | NWS grid | HRRR | GFS | GEFS | ECMWF | ECMWF AI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today Sep 26 | 62° 55°0.89 in | 58° 55°0.66 in | 55° 54°0.66 in | 61° 56°0.43 in | 61° 54°0.57 in | ~57° 56°1.21 in |
| Sun Sep 27 | 67° 58°1.95 in | 70° 56°1.30 in | 63° 56°1.16 in | 65° 61°0.97 in | 66° 55°1.72 in | ~64° 58°1.30 in |
| Mon Sep 28 | 66° 56°0.66 in | ~62° 61°0.50 in | 60° 54°0.66 in | 62° 58°0.63 in | 60° 56°0.55 in | ~60° 58°0.63 in |
| Tue Sep 29 | 70° 56° | — | 61° 53° | 67° 56°0.10 in | 69° 56° | ~66° 57°0.02 in |
| Wed Sep 30 | 73° 58° | — | 74° 59°0.12 in | 72° 55° | 74° 56° | ~72° 59° |
| Thu Oct 1 | 73° 59° | — | 75° 56° | 74° 61°0.05 in | 76° 62° | ~77° 63°0.01 in |
| Fri Oct 2 | 74° 57° | — | 72° 60°0.04 in | 73° 61°0.06 in | ~76° 67°0.06 in | ~73° 65°0.03 in |
| Sat Oct 3 | 72° 57° | — | 64° 51°0.57 in | 69° 57°0.05 in | ~66° 59°0.20 in | ~65° 53° |
| Sun Oct 4 | — | — | 64° 47°0.01 in | 65° 55°0.19 in | ~66° 53° | ~57° 47°0.20 in |
| Mon Oct 5 | — | — | 69° 57°1.30 in | 65° 56°0.20 in | ~64° 48° | ~57° 49°0.22 in |
| Tue Oct 6 | — | — | ~54° 46°0.19 in | — | ~63° 46°0.01 in | ~67° 45° |
| Wed Oct 7 | — | — | ~60° 41° | — | ~64° 49° | ~68° 47° |
| Thu Oct 8 | — | — | ~62° 50° | — | ~68° 49° | ~73° 55° |
| Fri Oct 9 | — | — | ~64° 57°0.83 in | — | ~65° 56°0.04 in | ~75° 59° |
| Sat Oct 10 | — | — | ~59° 47°0.04 in | — | ~51° 42° | ~65° 57°0.35 in |
| Sun Oct 11 | — | — | ~62° 46° | — | — | — |
A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.
ECMWF ensemble meteogram
The next 90 days
NOAA GHCN normals and records at Groton/New London (GON) · Climate Prediction Center outlooksNo forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.
The forecast reaches Sun Oct 11, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.
Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normal
| Week of | Normal | Warmest on record | Coldest on record | Temperature lean | Precipitation lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | 69° / 53° | 87° (2019) | 36° (2000) | no outlook | no outlook |
| Oct 3 | 66° / 48° | 86° (2011) | 30° (2001) | 33% chance above normal · days 8 to 14 | 33% chance above normal · days 8 to 14 |
| Oct 10 | 64° / 46° | 86° (2011) | 27° (2012) | 40% chance above normal · Oct 2026 | equal chances · Oct 2026 |
| Oct 17 | 64° / 43° | 77° (2016) | 24° (2015) | 40% chance above normal · Oct 2026 | equal chances · Oct 2026 |
| Oct 24 | 60° / 43° | 75° (2023) | 26° (2003) | 40% chance above normal · Oct 2026 | equal chances · Oct 2026 |
| Oct 31 | 58° / 38° | 74° (2022) | 26° (2002) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | equal chances · Oct to Dec |
| Nov 7 | 56° / 37° | 79° (2022) | 20° (2019) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | equal chances · Oct to Dec |
| Nov 14 | 52° / 35° | 68° (2005) | 20° (2019) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | equal chances · Oct to Dec |
| Nov 21 | 49° / 31° | 65° (2020) | 12° (2018) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | equal chances · Oct to Dec |
| Nov 28 | 51° / 36° | 66° (2001) | 15° (2003) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | equal chances · Oct to Dec |
| Dec 5 | 40° / 27° | 64° (2001) | 10° (2002) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | equal chances · Oct to Dec |
| Dec 12 | 44° / 31° | 62° (2015) | 10° (2005) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | equal chances · Oct to Dec |
| Dec 19 | 45° / 31° | 65° (2015) | 6° (2004) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | equal chances · Oct to Dec |
Health and activities
Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollenNone of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.
Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.
Health
- Arthritisnext 24 hModeratehumid
- Sinus pressurenext 24 hModeratehumid
- Common coldtodayLowmild
- FlutodayLowmild
- Migrainenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
- Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
- Heat stresstodayLowmild
- SunburntodayLowweak sun
- Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
- SleepingtonightGoodWind Advisory in force
Outdoors
- RunningtodayPoorchance of rain
- HikingtodayFairchance of rain
- BikingtodayPoorchance of rain
- GolftodayPoorchance of rain
- FishingtodayGoodwind
- Boating and paddlingtodayPoorwind
- Beach and pooltodayPoorchance of rain
- CampingtonightPoorWind Advisory in force
- StargazingtonightPoormostly cloudy
Travel
- Air travelnext 24 hPoorWind Advisory in force
- Drivingnext 24 hPoorchance of rain
Home and garden
- Lawn mowingtodayFairchance of rain
- GardeningtodayFairchance of rain
- Outdoor entertainingtodayPoorchance of rain
- Drying laundry outsidetodayPoorchance of rain
- Painting and outdoor projectstodayPoorchance of rain
- FrosttonightLowmild
Pests
- MosquitoestodayHighwarm
- TickstodayVery highwarm
- Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
- Outdoor peststodayHighhumid
Stargazing
Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moonTonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.
| Night of | Rating | Dark | Clear hours | Clear and moonless | Moon lit | Transparency (est.) | Dew | Strongest wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday | Poor | 8:11 PM to 5:09 AM | 0 of 9 | None | 100% | 9 h | 29 mph | |
| Sunday | Poor | 8:09 PM to 5:10 AM | 0 of 9 | None | 98% | 9 h | 14 mph | |
| Monday | Poor | 8:08 PM to 5:11 AM | 0 of 9 | None | 94% | 9 h | 6 mph | |
| Tuesday | Poor | 8:06 PM to 5:12 AM | 0 of 9 | None | 88% | 9 h | 1 mph | |
| Wednesday | Poor | 8:04 PM to 5:13 AM | 0 of 9 | None | 80% | 8 h | 2 mph | |
| Thursday | Poor | 8:02 PM to 5:14 AM | 0 of 9 | None | 71% | 8 h | 5 mph | |
| Friday | Poor | 8:00 PM to 5:15 AM | 0 of 9 | None | 61% | 5 mph | ||
| Saturday | Poor | 7:59 PM to 5:17 AM | 0 of 1 | None | 50% | 2 mph |
The last night runs past the end of the forecast and is rated on the hours it covers.
Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.
Golden hour and blue hour
Computed from the sun and moon positions| Day | Blue hour, morning | Golden hour, morning | Golden hour, evening | Blue hour, evening |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat | 6:13 AM to 6:23 AM | 6:23 AM to 7:17 AM | 6:02 PM to 6:56 PM | 6:56 PM to 7:06 PM |
| Sun | 6:14 AM to 6:24 AM | 6:24 AM to 7:18 AM | 6:01 PM to 6:54 PM | 6:54 PM to 7:05 PM |
| Mon | 6:15 AM to 6:25 AM | 6:25 AM to 7:19 AM | 5:59 PM to 6:52 PM | 6:52 PM to 7:03 PM |
| Tue | 6:16 AM to 6:26 AM | 6:26 AM to 7:20 AM | 5:57 PM to 6:51 PM | 6:51 PM to 7:01 PM |
| Wed | 6:17 AM to 6:27 AM | 6:27 AM to 7:21 AM | 5:55 PM to 6:49 PM | 6:49 PM to 7:00 PM |
| Thu | 6:18 AM to 6:28 AM | 6:28 AM to 7:22 AM | 5:54 PM to 6:47 PM | 6:47 PM to 6:58 PM |
| Fri | 6:19 AM to 6:30 AM | 6:30 AM to 7:23 AM | 5:52 PM to 6:45 PM | 6:45 PM to 6:56 PM |
- SR Sunrise 6:40 AM, 91° E
- SS Sunset 6:39 PM, 269° W
- MR Moonrise 6:26 PM, 83° E
- MS Moonset 6:31 AM, 273° W
- Full moon, 100% lit
Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.
Drone flying
NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107This hour: no-fly (ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). No stretch of two good hours in the next three days.
Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:10 AM to sunrise 6:40 AM, and sunset 6:39 PM to 7:09 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.
| Sat | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Mon | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM |
Good Caution No-fly
| Hour | Verdict | Wind (mph) | 400 ft est. (mph) | Gust (mph) | Rain | Visibility | Cloud allows | Temp | Kp | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 5 AM | No-fly | 24 | 35 | 57 | 49% | 5 mi | 400 ft | 56° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sat 6 AM | No-fly | 28 | 40 | 59 | 40% | 5 mi | 400 ft | 55° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sat 7 AM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 58 | 40% | 5 mi | 400 ft | 55° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible | |
| Sat 8 AM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 58 | 75% | 4.0 mi | 400 ft | 57° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible | |
| Sat 9 AM | No-fly | 25 | 37 | 58 | 75% | 4.0 mi | 400 ft | 56° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible | |
| Sat 10 AM | No-fly | 25 | 37 | 58 | 75% | 4.0 mi | 400 ft | 59° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible | |
| Sat 11 AM | No-fly | 24 | 35 | 57 | 85% | 5 mi | 400 ft | 59° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible | |
| Sat 12 PM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 58 | 82% | 5 mi | 400 ft | 60° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible | |
| Sat 1 PM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 58 | 82% | 5 mi | 400 ft | 62° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible | |
| Sat 2 PM | No-fly | 25 | 37 | 58 | 90% | 2.0 mi | 400 ft | 60° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, visibility under 3 miles (107.51) | |
| Sat 3 PM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 58 | 90% | 2.0 mi | 400 ft | 60° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, visibility under 3 miles (107.51) | |
| Sat 4 PM | No-fly | 28 | 40 | 59 | 90% | 2.0 mi | 400 ft | 60° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, visibility under 3 miles (107.51) | |
| Sat 5 PM | No-fly | 25 | 37 | 58 | 59% | 3.0 mi | 400 ft | 59° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible | |
| Sat 6 PM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 58 | 87% | 3.0 mi | 400 ft | 59° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, civil twilight: lighting required (107.29) | |
| Sat 7 PM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 59 | 87% | 3.0 mi | 400 ft | 57° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sat 8 PM | No-fly | 25 | 37 | 58 | 80% | 3.0 mi | 400 ft | 57° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sat 9 PM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 58 | 80% | 3.0 mi | 400 ft | 55° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sat 10 PM | No-fly | 29 | 42 | 59 | 80% | 3.0 mi | up to 350 ft | 56° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sat 11 PM | No-fly | 28 | 40 | 59 | 90% | 3.0 mi | up to 250 ft | 56° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sun 12 AM | No-fly | 26 | 39 | 58 | 99% | 3.0 mi | up to 250 ft | 56° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sun 1 AM | No-fly | 24 | 35 | 57 | 99% | 3.0 mi | up to 380 ft | 56° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sun 2 AM | No-fly | 23 | 33 | 57 | 96% | 2.0 mi | 400 ft | 57° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, visibility under 3 miles (107.51), ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sun 3 AM | No-fly | 21 | 30 | 55 | 96% | 2.0 mi | 400 ft | 57° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, visibility under 3 miles (107.51), ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |
| Sun 4 AM | No-fly | 18 | 27 | 53 | 96% | 2.0 mi | up to 395 ft | 58° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, visibility under 3 miles (107.51), ground wind near or over your limit, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29) |
Flight restrictions nearby
Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.
Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.
Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.
Spraying and field work
Worked out from the NWS hourly forecastHours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.
Spraying windows
- Tue 1 PM to 6 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
- Wed 12 PM to 7 PM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
- Thu 11 AM to 8 PM 9 hours, every hour within the rules
- Fri 11 AM to 10 PM 11 hours, every hour within the rules
- Sat 10 AM to 5 PM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
| Sat | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Mon | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Tue | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM |
Good Marginal No
Field days
| Day | Daytime | Chance of rain | Rain | Lowest humidity | Strongest wind | Dry days in a row | Hay drying |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday | Wet | 90% | 0.89 in | 78% | 28 mph | ||
| Sunday | Wet | 92% | 1.95 in | 97% | 21 mph | ||
| Monday | Wet | 86% | 0.66 in | 93% | 10 mph | ||
| Tuesday | Dry | 9% | 0.00 in | 76% | 6 mph | 5 d | |
| Wednesday | Dry | 2% | 0.00 in | 66% | 5 mph | 4 d | |
| Thursday | Dry | 4% | 0.00 in | 68% | 8 mph | 3 d | |
| Friday | Dry | 12% | 0.00 in | 66% | 8 mph | 2 d | |
| Saturday | Dry | 15% | 0.00 in | 61% | 6 mph | 1 d |
Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.
Solunar times
Computed from the moon’s positionThe best-rated day this week is Saturday, rated best.
| Day | Rating | Major periods | Minor periods | Moon | Sunrise, sunset |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat | Best | 11:12 PM to 1:12 AM11:35 AM to 1:35 PM | 6:01 AM to 7:01 AM5:56 PM to 6:56 PM | 100% | 6:40 AM, 6:39 PM |
| Sun | Best | 11:58 PM to 1:58 AM12:21 PM to 2:21 PM | 7:12 AM to 8:12 AM6:20 PM to 7:20 PM | 99% | 6:41 AM, 6:37 PM |
| Mon | Good | 12:46 AM to 2:46 AM1:11 PM to 3:11 PM | 8:25 AM to 9:25 AM6:48 PM to 7:48 PM | 95% | 6:42 AM, 6:35 PM |
| Tue | Good | 1:38 AM to 3:38 AM2:05 PM to 4:05 PM | 9:41 AM to 10:41 AM7:21 PM to 8:21 PM | 90% | 6:43 AM, 6:34 PM |
| Wed | Poor | 2:34 AM to 4:34 AM3:03 PM to 5:03 PM | 10:58 AM to 11:58 AM8:03 PM to 9:03 PM | 83% | 6:44 AM, 6:32 PM |
| Thu | Fair | 3:34 AM to 5:34 AM4:05 PM to 6:05 PM | 12:12 PM to 1:12 PM8:55 PM to 9:55 PM | 74% | 6:45 AM, 6:30 PM |
| Fri | Fair | 4:36 AM to 6:36 AM5:07 PM to 7:07 PM | 1:17 PM to 2:17 PM9:59 PM to 10:59 PM | 64% | 6:46 AM, 6:29 PM |
Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index
Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.
In words
NWS forecast periods, as issuedOvernight55° · 49% · NE 24 mph
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Northeast wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday62° · 90% · NE 24–28 mph
A chance of rain before 8am, then rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Cloudy. High near 62, with temperatures falling to around 59 in the afternoon. Northeast wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night55° · 99% · NE 17–29 mph
Rain before 2am, then rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Cloudy. Low around 55, with temperatures rising to around 58 overnight. Northeast wind 17 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Sunday67° · 94% · NE 12–21 mph
Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy. High near 67, with temperatures falling to around 65 in the afternoon. Northeast wind 12 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Sunday Night58° · 97% · NE 14 mph
Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy. Low around 58, with temperatures rising to around 60 overnight. Northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Monday66° · 94% · NE 7–12 mph
Rain showers. Cloudy. High near 66, with temperatures falling to around 64 in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Monday Night56° · 69% · N 7 mph
Rain showers likely before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday70° · 13% · NW 6 mph
Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Tuesday Night56° · 3% · NW 2 mph
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Wednesday73° · 2% · W 1–5 mph
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Wednesday Night58° · 4% · SW 3 mph
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Thursday73° · 4% · SW 1–8 mph
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Thursday Night59° · 10% · SW 6 mph
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Friday74° · 12% · SW 5–8 mph
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
The forecaster’s discussion
NWS New York, NY · issued Sep 26, 4:08 AM EDTWritten by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.
What Has Changed
No significant changes.
KEY Messages
1) An early season nor'easter will bring a prolonged period of strong winds and rainfall. A Wind Advisory is in place for most of the area.
2) Widespread coastal flooding impacts expected through the weekend. Greatest impacts expected Saturday and Sunday.
3) High surf and rip current risk through at least Sunday.
Discussion
KEY Message 1
A vertically stacked warm core low about 200 miles E of the VA will move slowly N today, then move NW toward the NJ coast tonight. As its warm seclusion becomes cut off from the main warm conveyor belt late tonight the sfc low should weaken fairly quickly from then into the day on Sunday, and may stall or weakly meander over or nearby the area to the south through Monday. Then the low will depart to the northeast on Tuesday as ridging around the system weakens, the upper low opens up into a trough, and and the system can get picked up by the westerlies to its north.
Rain bands from the low will continue to pivot up into the area today. Conditions may even dry out for a time in spots between these bands especially this afternoon. Then as the low pivots toward the NJ coast the entire CWA should see the best push of organized rainfall tonight into Sunday morning.
Bands of light to moderate rain should continue Sunday into Sunday night as the weakening storm lingers nearby or to the south. Rainfall will taper off and eventually end from southwest to northeast Monday into Monday night. Dry conditions expected by late Monday night.
Total rainfall Friday through Sunday looks to be 3-4 inches across Long Island and CT, and 2-3 inches from NYC north/west. There is some uncertainty on placement of rain bands as we go into Sunday afternoon/night, and some of those heavier amts could expand NW to include the NYC metro area. That said, this will be a long duration rainfall with max rates in heavier bands remaining less than 1/2 inch per hour, so do not really see a flash flood concern, though areal and poor drainage flooding are likely.
Strong winds with this storm will also impact the area, mainly toward the coast, and the wind advisory remains in effect for all but Orange, Putnam, and W Passaic, for sustained winds as high as 30-35 mph in coastal areas and gusts 45-55 mph. Can't rule out some 60 mph gusts in exposed areas of eastern Long Island and SE CT. Long duration rain, and strong winds, and full foliage may allow for trees/power lines to come down during this time frame.
KEY Message 2
Coastal flooding will occur around the times of high tide through at least Sunday.
Peak of coastal flooding will be Saturday AM into Sunday AM high tides with gale to storm force NE winds. At this point guidance is indicating Sat AM high tide to be the highest, but with tidal piling, gradually rising astronomical tide levels, and a possible backing of winds to the NE/E by Sunday, water levels will have trouble falling too much with the Sat PM and Sun AM high tides.
Widespread moderate to locally major flooding coastal flooding remains likely for Long Island and Queens thru the Sun AM high tide. Greatest threat for major is for southern Nassau and SW Suffolk, including the north facing portions of the barrier islands. Water levels may not fall much if at all below minor flood thresholds in a few of these spots even during low tide. Wave action will exacerbate moderate shoreline impacts along north facing shorelines.
For NYC/NJ harbor, coastal CT and westchester, and the tidally effected waters of NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley, the northerly flow should keep impacts to generally minor to locally moderate through these tidal cycles.
The current forecast is based on a blend of bias corrected 00Z ETSS, STOFS, and the Stevens NYHOPS central (50th percentile) forecasts. The forecast captured the latest high tide cycle fairly well, but can also tend to run high in a N-NE flow regime, so there is a safety margin built in through Sun AM high tides.
KEY Message 3
High risk of rip currents and high surf through Sunday along ocean shorelines. While ocean swells in outer ocean reach near 13-16 ft, surf height of near 7-11 ft expected closer to shore. There will be some variation due to swell orientation, with occasionally more ENE vs more ESE swell direction. The lack of orthogonal component to shoreline really limits the surf heights closer to the shore.
However, with current buoy observations running higher than GFSWave by a few feet, felt wave heights are already within advisory range within the surf zone. Beach flooding and erosion can be expected today and into Sunday.
Aviation · 07Z Saturday Through Wednesday
A developing offshore low will slowly approach from the south and east into the weekend. The low will bring a prolonged period of strong N/NE winds and periods of rain.
Mainly VFR through much of the night, especially for the NYC and western terminals. Bands of rain will work their way through the area from the east. MVFR conditions will gradually develop from the east toward 10-12Z and may not reach the NYC terminals until after 12-15Z, possibly as late as Saturday evening for KSWF. IFR conditions expected to slowly develop late Saturday afternoon and evening, beginning in the east and pushing west into Saturday night.
N-NE winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt expected through the TAF period. A few higher gusts up to 50 kt possible. Highest winds and gusts will occur at the coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of flight category changes could vary several hours due to the gradual moistening of the low-levels. Occasional gusts upwards of 50 kt possible over the next 36 hours.
Outlook For 06Z Sunday Through Wednesday
Saturday night: Flight cats mainly MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR overnight into Sunday morning. N/NE gusts 30-40 kt with LLWS.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain. N winds 15-20kt, G25-30kt.
Monday: MVFR, possibly IFR early with a chance of showers, improving to VFR in the afternoon. N gusts around 20kt in the morning.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. Light winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
Marine
Storm Warnings remain in effect on the ocean, and there could even be some occasional 50-kt gusts on the non-ocean waters E of Orient Point this morning. Gale Warnings for the non-ocean waters have been extended until 2 PM Sunday.
Winds and seas will then gradually subside through Sunday night. Winds on all waters should be below SCA levels on Monday, but hazardous seas should linger into most of daytime Monday on all the ocean waters, and from late day Monday into Monday evening out east.
OKX Watches / Warnings / Advisories
CT...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ009-010. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ011-012. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ069>075-078>081- 176>179. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ071>075- 078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ004-006-103>108. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ006-104-106- 108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340- 345. Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355-380-383- 385.
Hazardous weather outlook Sep 25, 6:07 AM EDT
The office’s own seven-day heads-up for spotters and emergency managers.
FLUS41 KOKX 251007 HWOOKX Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 NYZ075-081-178-261015- Kings (Brooklyn)-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Queens- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. High Surf Advisory. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. High Surf Advisory. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ NYZ179-261015- Southern Nassau- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. High Surf Advisory. Coastal Flood Advisory. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. High Surf Advisory. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ NYZ080-261015- Southwest Suffolk- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. High Surf Advisory. Coastal Flood Advisory. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. High Surf Advisory. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ CTZ005>008-NJZ004-103-105-107-NYZ069-070-261015- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ CTZ011-012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ072-261015- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen- Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-New York (Manhattan)- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-074-078-079-176-177-261015- Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Westchester-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ ANZ380-383-385-261015- Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ ANZ355-261015- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ ANZ353-261015- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ ANZ350-261015- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ ANZ331-332-335-340-345-261015- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ ANZ338-261015- New York Harbor- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$ NJZ002-NYZ067-068-261015- Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam- 607 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. $$
The outlooks beyond
SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this pointThe national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.
Severe weather
- Day 1 · Sat Sep 26No risk area
- Day 2 · Sun Sep 27General Thunderstorms Risk
- Day 3 · Mon Sep 28No risk area
- Day 4 · Tue Sep 29No risk area
- Day 5 · Wed Sep 30No risk area
- Day 6 · Thu Oct 1No risk area
- Day 7 · Fri Oct 2No risk area
- Day 8 · Sat Oct 3No risk area
Rainfall
- Day 1 · Sat Sep 261.75 in
- Day 2 · Sun Sep 271.25 in
- Day 3 · Mon Sep 280.10 in
- Day 4-5 · Sep 29–Sep 30Under 0.01 in
- Day 6-7 · Oct 1–Oct 2Under 0.01 in
Flash flood risk
- Day 1 · Sat Sep 26Slight
- Day 2 · Sun Sep 27Slight
- Day 3 · Mon Sep 28Below marginal
- Day 4 · Tue Sep 29Below marginal
- Day 5 · Wed Sep 30Below marginal
Six to fourteen days
- Days 6–10 · Temperature70% chance above normalOct 1–Oct 5
- Days 6–10 · Precipitation33% chance above normalOct 1–Oct 5
- Days 8–14 · Temperature33% chance above normalOct 3–Oct 9
- Days 8–14 · Precipitation33% chance above normalOct 3–Oct 9
Hazards, 3 to 14 days
- Mon Sep 28High Winds
Drought
- Drought MonitorNo drought
Drought in this county: the map, the record since 2000 and the outlook
Frost and climate
NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Norwich Public Utility PltThe last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 14 and the first fall freeze around October 24: a growing season of about 192 days.
One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 9; one spring in ten still has one after April 30.
Everything else on the grid
NWS forecast grid · 26 elementsThe forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.
| Element | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HeatRisk max | 0 · Little | 0 · Little | 0 · Little | 0 · Little | 0 · Little | 1 · Minor | 1 · Minor | 1 · Minor |
| Wet bulb globe temperature max | 60° | 66° | 65° | 67° | 70° | 71° | 70° | 67° |
| Heat index max | 73° | 73° | 73° | 71° | ||||
| Chance of thunder max | 22% | 29% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| Cloud ceiling min | 800 ft | 300 ft | ||||||
| Visibility min | 2.0 mi | 2.0 mi | 2.0 mi | 5 mi | 10 mi | 10 mi | 10 mi | 5 mi |
| Mixing height max | 2,200 ft | 1,600 ft | 1,600 ft | |||||
| Transport wind max | 37 mph | 31 mph | 14 mph | |||||
| Atmospheric dispersion index max | 74 | 34 | 23 |
Against the record
NOAA GHCN · Groton/New London (GON) · 9.0 mi awayEach forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.
| Day | Forecast | Normal | Record high | Record low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 26 | 62° / 55° | 71° / 56° | 78° (2007) | 43° (2009) |
| Sun Sep 27 | 67° / 58° | 72° / 57° | 80° (2017) | 41° (2000) |
| Mon Sep 28 | 66° / 56° | 72° / 57° | 81° (2017) | 42° (2000) |
| Tue Sep 29 | 70° / 56° | 69° / 53° | 78° (2019) | 36° (2000) |
| Wed Sep 30 | 73° / 58° | 67° / 51° | 77° (2010) | 38° (2000) |
| Thu Oct 1 | 73° / 59° | 67° / 52° | 79° (2013) | 41° (2009) |
| Fri Oct 2 | 74° / 57° | 69° / 49° | 87° (2019) | 39° (2009) |
| Sat Oct 3 | 72° / 57° | 67° / 51° | 76° (2013) | 37° (2003) |
Sun and moon
| Day | Civil twilight | Sunrise | Sunset | Civil twilight | Daylight | Moon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat | 6:13 AM | 6:40 AM | 6:39 PM | 7:06 PM | 11 h 59 min | Full moon · 100% lit |
| Sun | 6:14 AM | 6:41 AM | 6:37 PM | 7:05 PM | 11 h 56 min | Waning gibbous · 99% lit |
| Mon | 6:15 AM | 6:42 AM | 6:35 PM | 7:03 PM | 11 h 53 min | Waning gibbous · 95% lit |
| Tue | 6:16 AM | 6:43 AM | 6:34 PM | 7:01 PM | 11 h 51 min | Waning gibbous · 90% lit |
| Wed | 6:17 AM | 6:44 AM | 6:32 PM | 7:00 PM | 11 h 48 min | Waning gibbous · 83% lit |
| Thu | 6:18 AM | 6:45 AM | 6:30 PM | 6:58 PM | 11 h 45 min | Waning gibbous · 74% lit |
| Fri | 6:19 AM | 6:46 AM | 6:29 PM | 6:56 PM | 11 h 43 min | Waning gibbous · 64% lit |
| Sat | 6:20 AM | 6:48 AM | 6:27 PM | 6:54 PM | 11 h 39 min | Last quarter · 54% lit |
Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).
What is here
- Seven days
- The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
- Hour by hour
- Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
- Everything else on the grid
- The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
- The discussion
- The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
- Beyond the week
- The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
- Against the record
- Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
- The next 90 days
- The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.
Common questions
Where does this forecast come from?
From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.
How far ahead does it go?
The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.
Why is this different from the app on my phone?
Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.
What is a place’s address here?
Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.
What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from