40.8830, -72.7150

1. Sat8 AM61°10 mph
2. 9 AM62°10 mph
3. 10 AM63°10 mph
4. 11 AM64°10 mph
5. 12 PM65°10 mph
6. 1 PM67°9 mph
7. 2 PM68°8 mph
8. 3 PM68°8 mph
9. 4 PM68°7 mph
10. 5 PM67°6 mph
11. 6 PM65°6 mph
12. 7 PM63°6 mph
13. 8 PM62°6 mph
14. 9 PM60°6 mph
15. 10 PM59°6 mph
16. 11 PM58°6 mph
17. Sun12 AM57°7 mph
18. 1 AM56°7 mph
19. 2 AM55°7 mph
20. 3 AM55°7 mph
21. 4 AM54°8 mph
22. 5 AM53°8 mph
23. 6 AM52°9 mph
24. 7 AM52°9 mph
25. 8 AM52°2%10 mph
26. 9 AM54°2%12 mph
27. 10 AM56°2%12 mph
28. 11 AM58°10%12 mph
29. 12 PM60°10%12 mph
30. 1 PM61°10%12 mph
31. 2 PM63°38%10 mph
32. 3 PM63°38%10 mph
33. 4 PM63°38%10 mph
34. 5 PM63°60%9 mph
35. 6 PM61°60%8 mph
36. 7 PM60°60%9 mph
37. 8 PM59°55%9 mph
38. 9 PM58°55%8 mph
39. 10 PM57°55%8 mph
40. 11 PM57°55%8 mph
41. Mon12 AM56°55%7 mph
42. 1 AM55°55%6 mph
43. 2 AM55°14%5 mph
44. 3 AM55°14%5 mph
45. 4 AM54°14%5 mph
46. 5 AM54°14%6 mph
47. 6 AM53°14%5 mph
48. 7 AM53°14%5 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodayOct 368°60°Sunny14%wind 10 mph · gusts 18 mph
2. SunOct 463°53°Partly Sunny then Rain Showers Likely60%0.14 inwind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph
3. MonOct 569°48°Mostly Sunny55%0.02 inwind 16 mph · gusts 23 mph
4. TueOct 659°39°Sunny0%wind 15 mph · gusts 22 mph
5. WedOct 761°52°Sunny0%wind 7 mph
6. ThuOct 866°54°Sunny0%wind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
7. FriOct 967°52°Sunny2%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
8. SatOct 1064°53°2%wind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
9. SunOct 1165°57°National Blend28%wind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
10. MonOct 1267°56°National Blend40%0.57 inwind 12 mph · gusts 22 mph
11. TueOct 13~65°60°Model mean0.14 in
12. WedOct 14~61°57°Model mean0.02 in
13. ThuOct 15~61°54°Model mean0.14 in
14. FriOct 16~65°58°Model mean0.46 in
15. SatOct 17~66°56°Model mean0.13 in
16. SunOct 18~70°51°Model mean0.63 in

• Feels like61°
• WindNNE 10 mphgusts 17 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity72%
• Dew point52°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
• Moonrise11:46 PMMoonset 2:42 PM
• Moon phaseLast quarter54% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodayOct 368°54°NWS grid 68° / 60°rain 15%wind 9 mph · gusts 17 mph
2. SunOct 463°54°NWS grid 63° / 53°rain 60%0.16 inwind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph
3. MonOct 569°48°NWS grid 69° / 48°rain 12%0.01 inwind 12 mph · gusts 21 mph
4. TueOct 659°47°NWS grid 59° / 39°rain 0%wind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph
5. WedOct 761°52°NWS grid 61° / 52°rain 0%wind 6 mph
6. ThuOct 866°54°NWS grid 66° / 54°rain 0%wind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
7. FriOct 967°52°NWS grid 67° / 52°rain 2%wind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
8. SatOct 1064°53°NWS grid 64° / 53°rain 2%wind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
9. SunOct 1165°57°Beyond the NWS gridrain 28%wind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
10. MonOct 1267°56°Beyond the NWS gridrain 40%0.57 inwind 12 mph · gusts 22 mph
11. TueOct 1364°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 32%0.20 inwind 12 mph · gusts 22 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sun Oct 18, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight: 4 dark, clear hours without a bright moon, from 8:00 PM. Rated good.

The last night runs past the end of the forecast and is rated on the hours it covers.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: fly with caution (gusts near or over your limit). Next good stretch: Sat 1 PM to 6 PM, 5 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:20 AM to sunrise 6:50 AM, and sunset 6:29 PM to 6:59 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Sat 2 PM to Sun 12 AM 10 hours, every hour within the rules
• Tue 6 PM to Wed 4 AM 10 hours, every hour within the rules
• Wed 11 AM to Thu 1 AM 14 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 10 AM to 9 PM 11 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 10 AM to 1 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Fri 5 PM to Sat 5 PM 24 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Friday, rated best.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Today68° · NE 6–10 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 68. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph.

2. Tonight52° · E 8 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 52. East wind around 8 mph.

3. Sunday63° · 60% · E 12 mph

   Rain showers likely after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. East wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

4. Sunday Night53° · 60% · NE 5–9 mph

   Rain showers likely before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 53. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

5. Monday69° · 14% · NW 5–16 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Northwest wind 5 to 16 mph.

6. Monday Night48° · NW 16 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 48.

7. Tuesday59° · NW 9–15 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 59.

8. Tuesday Night39° · NW 2–6 mph

   Clear, with a low around 39.

9. Wednesday61° · W 1–7 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 61.

10. Wednesday Night52° · SW 7 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

11. Thursday66° · SW 7 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 66.

12. Thursday Night54° · SW 6 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

13. Friday67° · 1% · W 5–9 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 67.

14. Friday Night52° · 2% · W 7 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS41 KOKX 030632
HWOOKX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
232 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

ANZ345-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
041000-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
232 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, 
southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

$$

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-350-353-355-380-383-385-041000-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
232 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 24 and the first fall freeze around October 25: a growing season of about 182 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 11; one spring in ten still has one after May 9.

Climate of 40.88, -72.72: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.