39.4390, -97.7050

1. Thu3 AM68°24%7 mph
2. 4 AM67°27%7 mph
3. 5 AM66°38%8 mph
4. 6 AM66°50%8 mph
5. 7 AM66°62%8 mph
6. 8 AM66°58%9 mph
7. 9 AM65°54%10 mph
8. 10 AM66°50%12 mph
9. 11 AM65°55%14 mph
10. 12 PM65°59%15 mph
11. 1 PM66°63%16 mph
12. 2 PM66°61%18 mph
13. 3 PM67°59%18 mph
14. 4 PM65°57%20 mph
15. 5 PM64°48%20 mph
16. 6 PM64°38%18 mph
17. 7 PM61°28%17 mph
18. 8 PM60°22%17 mph
19. 9 PM59°16%16 mph
20. 10 PM59°10%15 mph
21. 11 PM57°7%15 mph
22. Fri12 AM56°3%13 mph
23. 1 AM55°13 mph
24. 2 AM54°13 mph
25. 3 AM53°12 mph
26. 4 AM52°12 mph
27. 5 AM51°13 mph
28. 6 AM51°12 mph
29. 7 AM50°12 mph
30. 8 AM50°12 mph
31. 9 AM52°12 mph
32. 10 AM54°12 mph
33. 11 AM56°12 mph
34. 12 PM59°10 mph
35. 1 PM61°10 mph
36. 2 PM63°9 mph
37. 3 PM65°9 mph
38. 4 PM65°8 mph
39. 5 PM65°7 mph
40. 6 PM63°6 mph
41. 7 PM60°5 mph
42. 8 PM58°3 mph
43. 9 PM55°3 mph
44. 10 PM52°3 mph
45. 11 PM50°3 mph
46. Sat12 AM50°3 mph
47. 1 AM49°3 mph
48. 2 AM49°3 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodayOct 169°50°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely63%0.83 inwind 20 mph · gusts 33 mph
2. FriOct 266°48°Sunny3%wind 13 mph · gusts 22 mph
3. SatOct 369°54°Sunny0%wind 7 mph
4. SunOct 472°52°Sunny0%wind 7 mph
5. MonOct 570°56°Sunny1%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
6. TueOct 676°59°Mostly Sunny15%wind 15 mph · gusts 24 mph
7. WedOct 777°60°Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny16%0.03 inwind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
8. ThuOct 877°60°National Blend2%wind 6 mph
9. FriOct 977°61°National Blend3%wind 8 mph
10. SatOct 1075°58°National Blend8%wind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
11. SunOct 11~67°54°Model mean0.03 in
12. MonOct 12~67°48°Model mean
13. TueOct 13~65°42°Model mean
14. WedOct 14~74°52°Model mean
15. ThuOct 15~64°47°Model mean
16. FriOct 16~58°43°Model mean

• Feels like68°
• WindN 7 mphgusts 13 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity100%
• Dew point68°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility7 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
• Moonrise10:20 PMMoonset 1:21 PM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous73% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodayOct 169°49°NWS grid 69° / 50°rain 81%thunder 26%0.50 inwind 20 mph · gusts 33 mph
2. FriOct 265°46°NWS grid 66° / 48°rain 1%wind 14 mph · gusts 23 mph
3. SatOct 369°54°NWS grid 69° / 54°rain 0%wind 7 mph
4. SunOct 472°52°NWS grid 72° / 52°rain 1%wind 7 mph
5. MonOct 570°55°NWS grid 70° / 56°rain 0%thunder 10%wind 9 mph · gusts 15 mph
6. TueOct 676°60°NWS grid 76° / 59°rain 7%thunder 13%wind 15 mph · gusts 24 mph
7. WedOct 778°60°NWS grid 77° / 60°rain 5%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
8. ThuOct 877°60°Beyond the NWS gridrain 2%wind 6 mph
9. FriOct 977°61°Beyond the NWS gridrain 3%wind 8 mph
10. SatOct 1075°58°Beyond the NWS gridrain 8%wind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
11. SunOct 1170°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 9%wind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Fri Oct 16, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normal

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated fair.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Fri 2 PM to 7 PM, 5 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:57 AM to sunrise 7:27 AM, and sunset 7:13 PM to 7:43 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Fri 2 PM to 9 PM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 11 AM to 8 PM 9 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 12 PM to 8 PM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 11 AM to 10 PM 11 hours, every hour within the rules
• Wed 12 PM to 4 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Wednesday, rated good.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Overnight64° · 38% · N 5–10 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 64. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

2. Thursday69° · 63% · NE 10–20 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 7am and 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 10am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

3. Thursday Night50° · 38% · NE 10–20 mph

   A chance of rain showers before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

4. Friday66° · NE 5–10 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

5. Friday Night48° · E 5 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 48. East wind around 5 mph.

6. Saturday69° · S 5 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 69. South wind around 5 mph.

7. Saturday Night54° · S 0–5 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 54. South wind 0 to 5 mph.

8. Sunday72° · N 5 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 72. North wind around 5 mph.

9. Sunday Night52° · E 5 mph

   Clear, with a low around 52. East wind around 5 mph.

10. Monday70° · 1% · SE 5–10 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 70.

11. Monday Night56° · 2% · SE 5–10 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 56.

12. Tuesday76° · 4% · S 10–15 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

13. Tuesday Night59° · 16% · S 10 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers after 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

14. Wednesday77° · 16% · NW 5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS43 KTOP 010729
HWOTOP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
229 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>039-020730-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-
229 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central 
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

One last round of heavy rain is expected today. Widespread 
additional amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected, with isolated 
3 inch amounts. This could continue to result in flooding, especially
in areas that have received 3 to 5 inches of rain over the past 36
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

$$

KSZ040-054>056-058-059-020730-
Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
229 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

One last round of heavy rain is expected today. Widespread 
additional amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected, with isolated 
3 inch amounts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 18 and the first fall freeze around October 19: a growing season of about 183 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 3; one spring in ten still has one after May 2.

Climate of 39.44, -97.70: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.