Current weather · Oct 4, 9:54 AM EDT

39.1750, -75.9180

62°

Chance of light rain showersFeels like 62° · Humidity 97%NWS forecast for this hour; no recent station reportForecast by NWS Philadelphia/Mt Holly · grid 29,40
High
67°
Low
57°
Rain today
51%
Sunrise
7:03 AM
Sunset
6:41 PM

Hour by hour

NWS forecast grid

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

Every hour as a table48 hours
TimeWeatherTemperatureFeels likeDew pointHumidityChanceAmountSnowDirWindGustSky coverThunderPressureVisibilityCeiling
Sun 9 AMChance of light rain showers62°62°61°97%50%0.01 inENE7 mph16 mph93%4%—7 mi1,000 ft
Sun 10 AMChance of light rain showers63°63°63°100%51%0.01 inENE8 mph15 mph94%4%—7 mi700 ft
Sun 11 AMChance of light rain showers64°64°63°97%51%0.01 inENE8 mph15 mph94%4%—7 mi700 ft
Sun 12 PMChance of light rain showers64°64°64°100%50%0.01 inENE8 mph15 mph94%4%—7 mi700 ft
Sun 1 PMChance of light rain showers65°65°64°97%50%0.01 inENE8 mph15 mph94%4%—7 mi700 ft
Sun 2 PMChance of light rain showers65°65°65°100%44%0.01 inENE8 mph15 mph94%3%—7 mi700 ft
Sun 3 PMChance of light rain showers65°65°65°100%37%0.00 inENE8 mph14 mph94%3%—7 mi700 ft
Sun 4 PMChance of light rain showers66°66°66°100%31%0.00 inNE7 mph13 mph93%3%—7 mi700 ft
Sun 5 PMSlight chance of light rain showers65°65°65°100%24%0.00 inNE7 mph12 mph92%—7 mi700 ft
Sun 6 PMSlight chance of light rain showers65°65°65°100%18%0.00 inNE5 mph9 mph93%—7 mi500 ft
Sun 7 PM64°64°64°100%11%0.00 inNNE5 mph8 mph94%—7 mi300 ft
Sun 8 PM63°63°62°97%7%0.00 inNNE5 mph8 mph95%—7 mi300 ft
Sun 9 PMPatchy fog63°63°62°97%7%NNE1 mph5 mph93%—2.5 mi200 ft
Sun 10 PMPatchy fog63°63°62°97%7%N1 mph3 mph93%—2.6 mi200 ft
Sun 11 PMPatchy fog62°62°61°97%7%N1 mph3 mph93%—2.8 mi500 ft
Mon 12 AMPatchy fog62°62°61°97%7%N0 mph2 mph89%—0.8 mi
Mon 1 AMPatchy fog62°62°61°97%7%N0 mph2 mph89%—1.1 mi
Mon 2 AMPatchy fog62°62°61°97%0%N0 mph2 mph92%—6 mi
Mon 3 AMPatchy fog61°61°61°100%0%N0 mph2 mph79%—2.9 mi
Mon 4 AMPatchy fog59°59°59°100%0%NW0 mph2 mph90%—5 mi
Mon 5 AM59°59°59°100%0%NW1 mph3 mph90%—8 mi
Mon 6 AM59°59°59°100%0%NW2 mph5 mph91%—7 mi
Mon 7 AM58°58°58°100%0%NW2 mph7 mph80%—7 mi
Mon 8 AM60°60°60°100%0%NW3 mph9 mph56%—9 mi
Mon 9 AM61°61°61°100%0%NW5 mph12 mph48%—10 mi
Mon 10 AM65°65°61°87%0%NW7 mph14 mph54%—10 mi
Mon 11 AM67°67°59°75%0%NW8 mph16 mph20%—10 mi
Mon 12 PM68°68°57°68%0%NW9 mph17 mph26%—10 mi
Mon 1 PM69°69°55°61%0%NW10 mph18 mph8%—10 mi
Mon 2 PM69°69°54°59%0%NW10 mph18 mph3%—10 mi
Mon 3 PM70°70°52°53%0%NNW10 mph18 mph4%—10 mi
Mon 4 PM68°68°51°54%0%NW10 mph18 mph7%—10 mi
Mon 5 PM68°68°50°52%0%NW9 mph17 mph9%—10 mi
Mon 6 PM65°65°50°58%0%NNW7 mph14 mph1%—10 mi
Mon 7 PM61°61°48°62%0%NW5 mph10 mph2%—10 mi
Mon 8 PM58°58°48°69%0%NW3 mph8 mph2%—10 mi
Mon 9 PM57°57°47°69%0%NNW3 mph8 mph0%——
Mon 10 PM56°56°46°69%0%NNW3 mph8 mph2%——
Mon 11 PM54°54°46°74%0%NNW3 mph8 mph3%——
Tue 12 AM53°53°45°74%0%NNW3 mph8 mph3%——
Tue 1 AM53°53°43°69%0%NNW3 mph9 mph3%——
Tue 2 AM52°52°42°69%0%NNW3 mph9 mph3%——
Tue 3 AM51°51°41°68%0%NNW3 mph9 mph4%——
Tue 4 AM49°48°41°74%0%NNW3 mph9 mph4%——
Tue 5 AM48°47°41°77%0%NNW3 mph9 mph5%——
Tue 6 AM47°46°41°79%0%NNW3 mph9 mph3%——
Tue 7 AM46°45°42°86%0%N3 mph8 mph2%——
Tue 8 AM47°46°42°83%0%N3 mph8 mph0%——

The next 16 days

NWS grid published Oct 4, 4:09 AM EDT to day 8, the National Blend of Models to day 10, the mean of GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AI to day 16
  1. TodayOct 467°57°Chance Rain Showers51%0.12 inwind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
  2. MonOct 570°46°Mostly Sunny7%wind 10 mph · gusts 18 mph
  3. TueOct 663°45°Sunny0%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
  4. WedOct 769°52°Sunny0%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
  5. ThuOct 874°52°Sunny0%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
  6. FriOct 972°53°Sunny0%wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
  7. SatOct 1069°52°Mostly Sunny2%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
  8. SunOct 1168°55°38%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
  9. MonOct 1269°56°National Blend39%0.24 inwind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
  10. TueOct 1370°54°National Blend20%0.06 inwind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
  11. WedOct 14~69°61°Model mean0.21 in
  12. ThuOct 15~63°52°Model mean
  13. FriOct 16~65°48°Model mean
  14. SatOct 17~64°54°Model mean0.03 in
  15. SunOct 18~63°49°Model mean
  16. MonOct 19~52°49°Model mean0.37 in

Right now

NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow
  • Feels like62°
  • WindENE 7 mphgusts 16 mph
  • Radar over this pointno reading
  • Humidity97%
  • Dew point61°
  • Pressure—
  • UV index—
  • Air quality—
  • Visibility7 mi
  • Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
  • Moonrise12:06 AMMoonset 3:33 PM
  • Moon phaseLast quarter43% lit

The National Blend of Models

NOAA NBM v5.0 · run of Oct 4, 2:00 AM EDT

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

  1. TodayOct 467°57°NWS grid 67° / 57°rain 75%0.15 inwind 7 mph · gusts 15 mph
  2. MonOct 570°47°NWS grid 70° / 46°rain 0%wind 10 mph · gusts 18 mph
  3. TueOct 663°45°NWS grid 63° / 45°rain 0%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
  4. WedOct 769°52°NWS grid 69° / 52°rain 1%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
  5. ThuOct 873°52°NWS grid 74° / 52°rain 0%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
  6. FriOct 972°53°NWS grid 72° / 53°rain 0%wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
  7. SatOct 1069°52°NWS grid 69° / 52°rain 2%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
  8. SunOct 1168°55°NWS grid 68° / 55°rain 38%0.07 inwind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
  9. MonOct 1269°56°Beyond the NWS gridrain 39%0.24 inwind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
  10. TueOct 1370°54°Beyond the NWS gridrain 20%0.06 inwind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
  11. WedOct 1467°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 16%0.02 inwind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
41°59°77°MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

BlendNWS gridChance of rain, hourly

The models, side by side

HRRR Oct 4, 2:00 AM EDT · GFS Oct 4, 2:00 AM EDT · GEFS Oct 4, 2:00 AM EDT · ECMWF Oct 3, 8:00 PM EDT · ECMWF AI Oct 3, 8:00 PM EDT

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

41°64°86°MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

DayNWS gridHRRRGFSGEFSECMWFECMWF AI
Today Oct 467° 57°0.12 in64° 61°0.04 in62° 60°0.07 in65° 61°0.06 in64° 61°0.29 in~65° 62°0.14 in
Mon Oct 570° 46°69° 52°68° 53°69° 53°~61° 57°~71° 60°
Tue Oct 663° 45°~51° 49°65° 47°64° 46°60° 49°~63° 51°
Wed Oct 769° 52°—71° 49°70° 48°68° 46°~69° 50°
Thu Oct 874° 52°—78° 58°76° 56°72° 57°~76° 58°
Fri Oct 972° 53°—69° 51°72° 54°72° 53°~77° 58°
Sat Oct 1069° 52°—72° 55°71° 55°0.01 in~71° 55°~71° 55°
Sun Oct 1168° 55°—67° 53°0.02 in66° 50°0.06 in~63° 58°1.55 in~70° 53°
Mon Oct 12——65° 59°0.48 in68° 54°0.17 in~76° 66°0.11 in~72° 56°
Tue Oct 13——68° 61°71° 59°0.16 in~65° 61°~73° 61°0.09 in
Wed Oct 14——~65° 60°0.04 in~57° 57°0.02 in~68° 55°~74° 68°0.59 in
Thu Oct 15——~62° 50°—~62° 50°~67° 57°
Fri Oct 16——~65° 49°—~66° 47°~64° 49°
Sat Oct 17——~60° 54°—~73° 55°~58° 52°0.09 in
Sun Oct 18——~57° 47°—~77° 58°~56° 43°
Mon Oct 19——~52° 49°0.37 in———

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

ECMWF ensemble meteogram for this place: box plots of cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and temperature from the 51 ensemble members for ten days.
Rendered by ECMWF from its 51-member ensemble, in metric units: each box spans the middle half of the members, the whiskers the rest, the line the control run. A forecast, not an observation. © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

The next 90 days

NOAA GHCN normals and records at Cheswold (33N) · Climate Prediction Center outlooks

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Mon Oct 19, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature lean50%33%equal chances40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec0°20°40°60°80°TodayNov 1Dec 1Jan 1

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

Week ofNormalWarmest on recordColdest on recordTemperature leanPrecipitation lean
Oct 472° / 53°95° (1941)31° (1935)equal chances · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 1169° / 51°89° (1919)29° (1988)33% chance above normal · days 8 to 1433% chance above normal · days 8 to 14
Oct 1868° / 47°88° (1908)25° (1969)equal chances · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 2564° / 46°86° (1919)25° (1909)equal chances · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Nov 162° / 40°85° (1950)23° (1991)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 859° / 40°81° (2022)19° (1920)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 1555° / 35°81° (1921)16° (1933)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 2256° / 36°78° (1913)11° (1938)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 2954° / 35°74° (1927)11° (1976)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 648° / 31°75° (1998)-1° (1910)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 1348° / 32°72° (2015)4° (1910)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 2051° / 32°75° (1987)-3° (1942)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 2747° / 31°75° (1984)3° (1909)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec

Health and activities

Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollen

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Health

  • Arthritisnext 24 hModeratehumid
  • Sinus pressurenext 24 hModeratehumid
  • Common coldtodayLowmild
  • FlutodayLowmild
  • Migrainenext 24 hModeratehumid
  • Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
  • Heat stresstodayLowmild
  • SunburntodayLowweak sun
  • Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
  • SleepingtonightIdealcool, quiet night

Outdoors

  • RunningtodayFairchance of rain
  • HikingtodayGoodchance of rain
  • BikingtodayGoodchance of rain
  • GolftodayGoodchance of rain
  • FishingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Boating and paddlingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Beach and pooltodayPoorcool
  • CampingtonightVery goodchance of rain
  • StargazingtonightPoorovercast

Travel

  • Air travelnext 24 hIdealclear skies
  • Drivingnext 24 hIdealclear roads

Home and garden

  • Lawn mowingtodayGoodchance of rain
  • GardeningtodayGoodchance of rain
  • Outdoor entertainingtodayFairchance of rain
  • Drying laundry outsidetodayPoorchance of rain
  • Painting and outdoor projectstodayPoorchance of rain
  • FrosttonightLowmild

Pests

  • MosquitoestodayVery highwarm
  • TickstodayVery highwarm
  • Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
  • Outdoor peststodayHighhumid

Stargazing

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moon

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Night ofRatingDarkClear hoursClear and moonlessMoon litTransparency (est.)DewStrongest wind
SundayPoor8:10 PM to 5:35 AM0 of 10None39%10 h5 mph
MondayExcellent8:09 PM to 5:36 AM10 of 107 h from 8:00 PM29%Good3 mph
TuesdayGood8:07 PM to 5:37 AM10 of 1010 h from 8:00 PM20%Fair1 h2 mph
WednesdayGood8:05 PM to 5:38 AM10 of 1010 h from 8:00 PM12%Poor7 h3 mph
ThursdayGood8:04 PM to 5:39 AM10 of 1010 h from 8:00 PM6%Fair2 mph
FridayPoor8:02 PM to 5:40 AM0 of 10None2%3 mph
SaturdayPoor8:01 PM to 5:41 AM0 of 10None0%3 mph
SundayPoor7:59 PM to 5:41 AM0 of 1None0%2 mph

The last night runs past the end of the forecast and is rated on the hours it covers.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour and blue hour

Computed from the sun and moon positions
DayBlue hour, morningGolden hour, morningGolden hour, eveningBlue hour, evening
Sun6:36 AM to 6:46 AM6:46 AM to 7:38 AM6:06 PM to 6:58 PM6:58 PM to 7:08 PM
Mon6:37 AM to 6:47 AM6:47 AM to 7:39 AM6:04 PM to 6:56 PM6:56 PM to 7:07 PM
Tue6:38 AM to 6:48 AM6:48 AM to 7:40 AM6:03 PM to 6:55 PM6:55 PM to 7:05 PM
Wed6:39 AM to 6:49 AM6:49 AM to 7:41 AM6:01 PM to 6:53 PM6:53 PM to 7:03 PM
Thu6:40 AM to 6:50 AM6:50 AM to 7:42 AM5:59 PM to 6:52 PM6:52 PM to 7:02 PM
Fri6:41 AM to 6:51 AM6:51 AM to 7:43 AM5:58 PM to 6:50 PM6:50 PM to 7:00 PM
Sat6:42 AM to 6:52 AM6:52 AM to 7:44 AM5:56 PM to 6:49 PM6:49 PM to 6:59 PM
NESWSRSSMRMS
  • SR Sunrise 7:03 AM, 95° E
  • SS Sunset 6:41 PM, 265° W
  • MR Moonrise 12:06 AM, 57° ENE
  • MS Moonset 3:33 PM, 300° WNW
  • Last quarter, 43% lit

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

Drone flying

NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107

This hour: fly with caution (gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain). Next good stretch: Mon 8 AM to 12 PM, 4 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:33 AM to sunrise 7:03 AM, and sunset 6:41 PM to 7:11 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Sun12 PM6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Tue12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Caution No-fly

HourVerdictWind (mph)400 ft est. (mph)Gust (mph)RainVisibilityCloud allowsTempKpWhy
Sun 9 AMCaution7101950%7 mi400 ft62°gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain
Sun 10 AMCaution8121951%7 miup to 200 ft63°gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sun 11 AMCaution8121951%7 miup to 200 ft64°gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sun 12 PMCaution8121950%7 miup to 200 ft64°gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sun 1 PMCaution8121950%7 miup to 200 ft65°gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sun 2 PMCaution8121944%7 miup to 200 ft65°gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sun 3 PMCaution8121737%7 miup to 200 ft65°chance of rain, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sun 4 PMCaution7101631%7 miup to 200 ft66°chance of rain, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sun 5 PMCaution7101524%7 miup to 200 ft65°low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sun 6 PMNo-fly571118%7 miup to 0 ft65°low cloud limits height (107.51), civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Sun 7 PMNo-fly571011%7 miup to 0 ft64°low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 8 PMNo-fly57107%7 miup to 0 ft63°low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 9 PMNo-fly1257%2.5 miup to 0 ft63°visibility under 3 miles (107.51), low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 10 PMNo-fly1247%2.6 miup to 0 ft63°visibility under 3 miles (107.51), low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 11 PMNo-fly1247%2.8 miup to 0 ft62°visibility under 3 miles (107.51), low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 12 AMNo-fly0027%0.8 mi62°visibility under 3 miles (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 1 AMNo-fly0027%1.1 mi62°visibility under 3 miles (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 2 AMCaution0020%6 mi62°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 3 AMNo-fly0020%2.9 mi61°visibility under 3 miles (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 4 AMCaution0020%4.9 mi59°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 5 AMCaution1240%8 mi59°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 6 AMCaution2360%7 mi59°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Mon 7 AMCaution2380%7 mi58°civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Mon 8 AMGood34100%9 mi60°nothing against it

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Spraying and field work

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

  • Mon 6 PM to Tue 7 AM 13 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Tue 9 AM to 4 PM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Wed 9 AM to 10 PM 13 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Thu 10 AM to 6 PM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Fri 10 AM to 8 PM 10 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Sat 9 AM to 7 PM 10 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Sun 10 AM to 4 PM 6 hours, every hour within the rules
Sun12 PM6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Tue12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Wed12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Marginal No

Field days

DayDaytimeChance of rainRainLowest humidityStrongest windDry days in a rowHay drying
SundayShowers possible51%0.12 in97%8 mph
MondayDry0%0.00 in52%10 mph7 d
TuesdayDry0%0.00 in46%5 mph6 d
WednesdayDry0%0.00 in54%8 mph5 d
ThursdayDry0%0.00 in51%6 mph4 d
FridayDry0%0.00 in53%6 mph3 d
SaturdayDry2%0.00 in55%5 mph2 d
SundayDry15%0.00 in65%6 mph1 d

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

Solunar times

Computed from the moon’s position

The best-rated day this week is Friday, rated best.

DayRatingMajor periodsMinor periodsMoonSunrise, sunset
Sun Fair6:54 AM to 8:54 AM7:23 PM to 9:23 PM11:36 PM to 12:36 AM3:03 PM to 4:03 PM 43%7:03 AM, 6:41 PM
Mon Fair7:50 AM to 9:50 AM8:17 PM to 10:17 PM12:50 AM to 1:50 AM3:39 PM to 4:39 PM 33%7:04 AM, 6:40 PM
Tue Poor8:42 AM to 10:42 AM9:07 PM to 11:07 PM2:03 AM to 3:03 AM4:09 PM to 5:09 PM 23%7:05 AM, 6:38 PM
Wed Fair9:31 AM to 11:31 AM9:54 PM to 11:54 PM3:15 AM to 4:15 AM4:35 PM to 5:35 PM 15%7:06 AM, 6:37 PM
Thu Good10:17 AM to 12:17 PM10:39 PM to 12:39 AM4:24 AM to 5:24 AM4:59 PM to 5:59 PM 8%7:06 AM, 6:35 PM
Fri Best11:02 AM to 1:02 PM5:31 AM to 6:31 AM5:22 PM to 6:22 PM 3%7:07 AM, 6:34 PM
Sat Best11:24 PM to 1:24 AM11:46 AM to 1:46 PM6:37 AM to 7:37 AM5:46 PM to 6:46 PM 1%7:08 AM, 6:32 PM

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

In words

NWS forecast periods, as issued
  1. Today67° · 51% · NE 5–10 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 67. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

  2. Tonight57° · 18% · N 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 7pm, then patchy fog between 9pm and 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

  3. Monday70° · NW 0–10 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Northwest wind 0 to 10 mph.

  4. Monday Night46° · NW 5 mph

    Clear, with a low around 46. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

  5. Tuesday63° · NW 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 63. Northwest wind 0 to 5 mph.

  6. Tuesday Night45° · 0 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

  7. Wednesday69° · S 0–10 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 69.

  8. Wednesday Night52° · S 0–5 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

  9. Thursday74° · W 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 74.

  10. Thursday Night52° · 0 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

  11. Friday72° · NW 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 72.

  12. Friday Night53° · SW 0–5 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

  13. Saturday69° · 2% · N 5 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

  14. Saturday Night52° · 2% · E 0–5 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

The forecaster’s discussion

NWS Philadelphia/Mt Holly · issued Oct 4, 3:36 AM EDT

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

What Has Changed

No significant changes.

KEY Messages

1. Showers are expected to impact portions of the region through tonight.

2. Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler temperatures and dry weather through much of the week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are expected to impact portions of the region through tonight.

Low pressure developing along the stalled frontal boundary to our south early this morning will provide another round of showers across portions of the region. The timing of the showers will be focused during the afternoon hours Sunday, but could begin near/south of Philly in the morning and linger area wide into the evening or overnight hours. PoPs have retreated slightly and now range from around 30-50% along and north of I-80 to around 45-55% within the I-95 corridor and Philly metro, to 60-70% across Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. The latest QPF forecast has around 0.10" or less along the I-95 corridor and points north and west with around 0.25-0.75" across the southern Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. It's possible the showers don't make it much farther northwest than the I-95 corridor. There still remains some spread in the guidance as to exactly how far north and west the showers will make it.

Given overcast skies, easterly winds, and showers, temperatures today will be cooler with highs likely only reaching the low to mid 60s in many areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler temperatures and dry weather through much of the week.

Canadian high pressure and a much cooler air mass will build into the region starting Monday. Monday will feature mostly sunny skies with highs within a few degrees of 70, though a stiff northwest breeze will make it feel cooler. Sunny skies continue on Tuesday, though highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid 60s for much of the region which is upwards of 10 degrees below normal. Lows will fall mainly into the 40s, with 50s along the coast and the upper 30s in the Poconos. Some areas of frost will be possible mainly north of I-78 late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

As cold advection wanes by mid-week, the airmass will begin to modify and trend warmer as southerly flow returns. Highs remain in the 60s on Wednesday, before warming back into the 70s again for Thursday and Friday. With high pressure remaining in control, mostly clear skies and dry weather is expected through the end of the week.

Aviation · 07Z Sunday Through Thursday

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Widespread MVFR cigs during the morning with IFR or lower cigs during the afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers move in through the morning into the early afternoon. Shower coverage lessens during the evening hours. Winds continue out of the ENE to east at 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Sub-VFR conditions possible with a slight chance of showers (early) and patchy fog overnight.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR. Other than some gusty winds possible on Monday, no significant weather expected.

Marine

The Small Craft Advisory remains for all of the Atlantic coastal waters for 5 foot seas and wind gusts up to 25 kts. NE winds around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. For tonight, there will be lingering SCA conditions due to seas around 5 feet early, before diminishing overnight.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...No marine headlines expected, although a few gusts up to 25 kt possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...No marine headlines anticipated.

PHI Watches / Warnings / Advisories

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.

Hazardous weather outlook Oct 4, 5:08 AM EDT

The office’s own seven-day heads-up for spotters and emergency managers.

FLUS41 KPHI 040908
HWOPHI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
508 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-050915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
508 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

The outlooks beyond

SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this point

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Severe weather

  1. Day 1 · Sun Oct 4No risk area
  2. Day 2 · Mon Oct 5No risk area
  3. Day 3 · Tue Oct 6No risk area
  4. Day 4 · Wed Oct 7No risk area
  5. Day 5 · Thu Oct 8No risk area
  6. Day 6 · Fri Oct 9No risk area
  7. Day 7 · Sat Oct 10No risk area
  8. Day 8 · Sun Oct 11No risk area

Tornado chance

  1. Today, within 25 milesUnder 2%

Our own model, not an official forecast.

Tornado risk and storm threats on the radar

Rainfall

  1. Day 1 · Sun Oct 40.01 in
  2. Day 2 · Mon Oct 5Under 0.01 in
  3. Day 3 · Tue Oct 6Under 0.01 in
  4. Day 4-5 · Oct 7–Oct 8Under 0.01 in
  5. Day 6-7 · Oct 9–Oct 10Under 0.01 in

The rainfall forecast on the map, days 1 to 7

Six to fourteen days

  1. Days 6–10 · Temperature50% chance above normalOct 9–Oct 13
  2. Days 6–10 · Precipitation40% chance above normalOct 9–Oct 13
  3. Days 8–14 · Temperature33% chance above normalOct 11–Oct 17
  4. Days 8–14 · Precipitation33% chance above normalOct 11–Oct 17

Drought

  1. Drought Monitor, map of Sep 29D0 Abnormally dry

Drought in this county: the map, the record since 2000 and the outlook

Frost and climate

NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Chestertown

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 3 and the first fall freeze around November 5: a growing season of about 217 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 24; one spring in ten still has one after April 16.

Climate of 39.17, -75.92: normals, records and every month

Everything else on the grid

NWS forecast grid · 29 elements

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

ElementSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun
Wet bulb globe temperature max66°67°
Heat index max70°74°72°
Wind chill min45°44°
Chance of thunder max4%0%0%0%0%0%2%2%
Cloud ceiling min200 ft
Visibility min2.5 mi0.8 mi
Mixing height max1,400 ft5,300 ft4,500 ft3,500 ft4,300 ft4,100 ft3,600 ft3,800 ft
Transport wind max16 mph20 mph12 mph14 mph10 mph12 mph10 mph12 mph
Twenty-foot wind max7 mph9 mph5 mph7 mph6 mph6 mph5 mph6 mph
Atmospheric dispersion index max257800
Low visibility risk max8968

Against the record

NOAA GHCN · Cheswold (33N) · 17 mi away

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.

DayForecastNormalRecord highRecord low
Sun Oct 467° / 57°75° / 56°90° (1954)33° (1974)
Mon Oct 570° / 46°74° / 55°94° (1941)32° (1974)
Tue Oct 663° / 45°73° / 52°94° (1941)32° (1965)
Wed Oct 769° / 52°72° / 53°95° (1941)35° (1935)
Thu Oct 874° / 52°71° / 52°89° (1941)31° (1935)
Fri Oct 972° / 53°73° / 54°89° (2007)33° (2001)
Sat Oct 1069° / 52°73° / 55°92° (1939)32° (1979)
Sun Oct 1168° / 55°71° / 53°89° (1919)30° (1925)

Sun and moon

DayCivil twilightSunriseSunsetCivil twilightDaylightMoon
Sun6:36 AM7:03 AM6:41 PM7:08 PM11 h 38 min Last quarter · 43% lit
Mon6:37 AM7:04 AM6:40 PM7:07 PM11 h 36 min Waning crescent · 33% lit
Tue6:38 AM7:05 AM6:38 PM7:05 PM11 h 33 min Waning crescent · 23% lit
Wed6:39 AM7:06 AM6:37 PM7:03 PM11 h 31 min Waning crescent · 15% lit
Thu6:40 AM7:06 AM6:35 PM7:02 PM11 h 29 min Waning crescent · 8% lit
Fri6:41 AM7:07 AM6:34 PM7:00 PM11 h 27 min Waning crescent · 3% lit
Sat6:42 AM7:08 AM6:32 PM6:59 PM11 h 24 min New moon · 1% lit
Sun6:43 AM7:09 AM6:31 PM6:57 PM11 h 22 min New moon · 0% lit

Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).

What is here

Seven days
The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
Hour by hour
Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
Everything else on the grid
The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
The discussion
The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
Beyond the week
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
Against the record
Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
The next 90 days
The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.

Common questions

Where does this forecast come from?

From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.

How far ahead does it go?

The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.

Why is this different from the app on my phone?

Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.

What is a place’s address here?

Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.

What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from