38.7970, -97.2170

1. Tue2 AM68°10 mph
2. 3 AM68°10 mph
3. 4 AM67°10 mph
4. 5 AM67°1%12 mph
5. 6 AM66°2%12 mph
6. 7 AM66°3%12 mph
7. 8 AM68°3%13 mph
8. 9 AM72°3%14 mph
9. 10 AM75°4%15 mph
10. 11 AM78°10%16 mph
11. 12 PM80°17%16 mph
12. 1 PM81°23%16 mph
13. 2 PM81°38%16 mph
14. 3 PM80°53%15 mph
15. 4 PM78°68%14 mph
16. 5 PM76°70%13 mph
17. 6 PM73°72%12 mph
18. 7 PM71°74%10 mph
19. 8 PM70°71%9 mph
20. 9 PM70°67%10 mph
21. 10 PM70°63%10 mph
22. 11 PM70°55%9 mph
23. Wed12 AM70°48%9 mph
24. 1 AM70°40%9 mph
25. 2 AM70°43%9 mph
26. 3 AM69°45%8 mph
27. 4 AM69°48%9 mph
28. 5 AM68°54%9 mph
29. 6 AM67°60%9 mph
30. 7 AM67°66%10 mph
31. 8 AM68°60%9 mph
32. 9 AM69°53%9 mph
33. 10 AM70°47%9 mph
34. 11 AM72°53%12 mph
35. 12 PM74°58%12 mph
36. 1 PM76°63%14 mph
37. 2 PM78°60%14 mph
38. 3 PM79°57%14 mph
39. 4 PM79°54%14 mph
40. 5 PM78°61%15 mph
41. 6 PM75°76%14 mph
42. 7 PM73°83%10 mph
43. 8 PM71°83%9 mph
44. 9 PM71°83%9 mph
45. 10 PM70°83%9 mph
46. 11 PM70°83%8 mph
47. Thu12 AM69°83%7 mph
48. 1 AM69°83%6 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2981°67°Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms74%0.45 inwind 16 mph · gusts 26 mph
2. WedSep 3079°65°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely83%0.58 inwind 15 mph · gusts 24 mph
3. ThuOct 172°56°Showers And Thunderstorms94%0.94 inwind 15 mph · gusts 23 mph
4. FriOct 265°53°Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Sunny57%0.03 inwind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
5. SatOct 370°54°Partly Sunny7%wind 5 mph
6. SunOct 472°52°Sunny7%wind 7 mph
7. MonOct 572°55°Sunny2%wind 6 mph
8. TueOct 675°55°4%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
9. WedOct 776°59°National Blend7%wind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
10. ThuOct 875°57°National Blend2%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
11. FriOct 9~71°51°Model mean
12. SatOct 10~76°54°Model mean
13. SunOct 11~68°55°Model mean
14. MonOct 12~68°49°Model mean
15. TueOct 13~81°60°Model mean
16. WedOct 14~74°60°Model mean

• Feels like68°
• WindSE 10 mphgusts 17 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity78%
• Dew point61°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
• Moonrise8:42 PMMoonset 10:49 AM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous90% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 2981°68°NWS grid 81° / 67°rain 93%thunder 29%0.35 inwind 15 mph · gusts 24 mph
2. WedSep 3078°66°NWS grid 79° / 65°rain 84%thunder 35%0.53 inwind 16 mph · gusts 26 mph
3. ThuOct 170°55°NWS grid 72° / 56°rain 91%thunder 32%1.00 inwind 16 mph · gusts 24 mph
4. FriOct 266°54°NWS grid 65° / 53°rain 17%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
5. SatOct 372°55°NWS grid 70° / 54°rain 8%wind 5 mph
6. SunOct 472°51°NWS grid 72° / 52°rain 2%wind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
7. MonOct 571°55°NWS grid 72° / 55°rain 2%wind 7 mph
8. TueOct 674°60°NWS grid 75° / 55°rain 5%thunder 10%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
9. WedOct 776°59°Beyond the NWS gridrain 7%wind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
10. ThuOct 875°57°Beyond the NWS gridrain 2%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
11. FriOct 975°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 3%wind 8 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Wed Oct 14, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). No stretch of two good hours in the next three days.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:53 AM to sunrise 7:23 AM, and sunset 7:15 PM to 7:45 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Fri 5 PM to 7 PM 2 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 12 PM to 7 PM 7 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 11 AM to 9 PM 10 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 10 AM to 10 PM 12 hours, every hour within the rules
• Tue 11 AM to 1 PM 2 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Tuesday, rated good.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Overnight66° · 1% · SE 10 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

2. Tuesday81° · 70% · S 10–15 mph

   A slight chance of rain showers between noon and 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

3. Tuesday Night67° · 74% · S 10 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

4. Wednesday79° · 66% · S 10–15 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms likely before 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 4pm and 5pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

5. Wednesday Night65° · 83% · S 5–15 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

6. Thursday72° · 94% · NE 5–15 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

7. Thursday Night56° · 94% · NE 10–15 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

8. Friday65° · 18% · NE 10 mph

   A slight chance of rain showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

9. Friday Night53° · 4% · NE 0–10 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northeast wind 0 to 10 mph.

10. Saturday70° · 5% · NE 0–5 mph

    Partly sunny, with a high near 70.

11. Saturday Night54° · 7% · NE 0–5 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

12. Sunday72° · 5% · N 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 72.

13. Sunday Night52° · 2% · E 0–5 mph

    Clear, with a low around 52.

14. Monday72° · 2% · SE 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 72.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS43 KTOP 281908
HWOTOP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
208 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-034-291915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Ottawa-
208 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Kansas and 
northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Rounds of rain are expected Tuesday evening through Thursday with 
the heaviest rain likely late Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread 
rainfall totals of 1-3" are expected. Locally higher amounts of 4-5"
could lead to flooding, particularly towards north central KS. A
Flood Watch is now in effect Tuesday evening through Thursday
afternoon.

While a lesser hazard compared to the heavy rain risk, a few strong
storms could also occur, particularly towards central KS Wednesday evening.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

$$

KSZ026-035>040-054>056-058-059-291915-
Jefferson-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-
Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
208 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central 
Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Rounds of rain are expected Tuesday evening through Thursday with 
the heaviest rain likely late Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread 
rainfall totals of 1-3" are expected. While a lesser hazard 
compared to the heavy rain risk, a few strong storms could also 
occur, particularly towards central KS Wednesday evening.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 14 and the first fall freeze around October 23: a growing season of about 190 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 8; one spring in ten still has one after May 1.

Climate of 38.80, -97.22: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.