38.3110, -77.4840

1. Wed4 PM81°5 mph
2. 5 PM79°5 mph
3. 6 PM77°5 mph
4. 7 PM74°5 mph
5. 8 PM68°5 mph
6. 9 PM67°5 mph
7. 10 PM66°3 mph
8. 11 PM65°3 mph
9. Thu12 AM65°3 mph
10. 1 AM64°3 mph
11. 2 AM64°3 mph
12. 3 AM64°3 mph
13. 4 AM63°3 mph
14. 5 AM63°3 mph
15. 6 AM62°3 mph
16. 7 AM62°3 mph
17. 8 AM63°5 mph
18. 9 AM66°6 mph
19. 10 AM71°7 mph
20. 11 AM76°8 mph
21. 12 PM80°9 mph
22. 1 PM83°9 mph
23. 2 PM84°9 mph
24. 3 PM86°9 mph
25. 4 PM84°9 mph
26. 5 PM84°9 mph
27. 6 PM81°8 mph
28. 7 PM76°7 mph
29. 8 PM73°6 mph
30. 9 PM72°6 mph
31. 10 PM71°6 mph
32. 11 PM70°6 mph
33. Fri12 AM70°6 mph
34. 1 AM69°6 mph
35. 2 AM69°6 mph
36. 3 AM68°6 mph
37. 4 AM67°5 mph
38. 5 AM67°5 mph
39. 6 AM66°5 mph
40. 7 AM65°5 mph
41. 8 AM66°6 mph
42. 9 AM69°7 mph
43. 10 AM73°8 mph
44. 11 AM78°9 mph
45. 12 PM82°10 mph
46. 1 PM85°10 mph
47. 2 PM87°10%10 mph
48. 3 PM88°10%10 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 3082°57°Mostly Sunny0%wind 6 mph
2. ThuOct 186°65°Sunny0%wind 9 mph
3. FriOct 289°61°Sunny30%wind 10 mph
4. SatOct 368°57°Chance Rain Showers30%0.03 inwind 10 mph
5. SunOct 467°58°Chance Rain Showers49%wind 3 mph
6. MonOct 572°48°Mostly Sunny30%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
7. TueOct 662°44°Sunny0%wind 7 mph · gusts 15 mph
8. WedOct 766°50°1%wind 5 mph
9. ThuOct 871°54°National Blend7%wind 5 mph
10. FriOct 970°52°National Blend4%wind 7 mph
11. SatOct 1066°51°National Blend11%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
12. SunOct 11~74°56°Model mean
13. MonOct 12~77°59°Model mean0.17 in
14. TueOct 13~70°52°Model mean0.58 in
15. WedOct 14~65°45°Model mean0.17 in
16. ThuOct 15~59°44°Model mean

• Feels like82°
• WindSSW 5 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity54%
• Dew point63°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
• Moonrise9:06 PMMoonset 11:39 AM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous83% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 30—62°NWS grid 82° / 57°rain 0%wind 6 mph
2. ThuOct 186°65°NWS grid 86° / 65°rain 1%wind 7 mph
3. FriOct 289°61°NWS grid 89° / 61°rain 38%thunder 15%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
4. SatOct 368°57°NWS grid 68° / 57°rain 34%0.02 inwind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
5. SunOct 467°58°NWS grid 67° / 58°rain 49%0.49 inwind 3 mph
6. MonOct 572°48°NWS grid 72° / 48°rain 13%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
7. TueOct 662°44°NWS grid 62° / 44°rain 0%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
8. WedOct 766°50°NWS grid 66° / 50°rain 1%wind 5 mph
9. ThuOct 871°54°Beyond the NWS gridrain 7%wind 5 mph
10. FriOct 970°52°Beyond the NWS gridrain 4%wind 7 mph
11. SatOct 1066°51°Beyond the NWS gridrain 11%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Thu Oct 15, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and low

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: good to fly. Next good stretch: Wed 4 PM to 6 PM, 2 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:35 AM to sunrise 7:05 AM, and sunset 6:54 PM to 7:24 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Wed 4 PM to 8 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 10 AM to Fri 12 PM 26 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 1 PM to 7 PM 6 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 11 AM to Tue 7 PM 32 hours, every hour within the rules
• Wed 12 PM to 5 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Thursday, rated fair.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. This Afternoon82° · S 5 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind around 5 mph.

2. Tonight62° · S 5 mph

   Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind around 5 mph.

3. Thursday86° · SW 3–9 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 86. Southwest wind 3 to 9 mph.

4. Thursday Night65° · S 5–8 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 8 mph.

5. Friday89° · 10% · SW 5–10 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 89. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

6. Friday Night61° · 30% · NW 8 mph

   A chance of rain showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

7. Saturday68° · 29% · N 6–10 mph

   A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

8. Saturday Night57° · 34% · NE 0–6 mph

   A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

9. Sunday67° · 49% · E 3 mph

   A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

10. Sunday Night58° · 47% · SE 2 mph

    A chance of rain showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

11. Monday72° · 14% · NW 0–8 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

12. Monday Night48° · 3% · N 7 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 48.

13. Tuesday62° · N 7 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 62.

14. Tuesday Night44° · NE 0–3 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 44.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS41 KLWX 302003
HWOLWX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
403 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-012015-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
403 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
526-WVZ050>053-055-012015-
Washington-Frederick-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-
Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Northwest Prince William-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
403 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Frost or Freeze conditions are possible Monday night and Tuesday 
night west of the Blue Ridge. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-012015-
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
403 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Frost or Freeze conditions are possible Monday night and Tuesday 
night over the Alleghenies. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

DHOF

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Reading the outlooks…

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 6 and the first fall freeze around November 1: a growing season of about 207 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 19; one spring in ten still has one after April 22.

Climate of 38.31, -77.48: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.