37.5310, -99.0510

1. Wed3 PM76°72%17 mph
2. 4 PM77°62%16 mph
3. 5 PM78°51%16 mph
4. 6 PM76°40%14 mph
5. 7 PM74°30%12 mph
6. 8 PM71°32%10 mph
7. 9 PM70°35%10 mph
8. 10 PM70°37%9 mph
9. 11 PM69°40%8 mph
10. Thu12 AM68°42%7 mph
11. 1 AM67°45%6 mph
12. 2 AM66°45%6 mph
13. 3 AM66°45%5 mph
14. 4 AM65°46%5 mph
15. 5 AM65°46%3 mph
16. 6 AM64°46%3 mph
17. 7 AM64°47%3 mph
18. 8 AM64°51%3 mph
19. 9 AM64°56%3 mph
20. 10 AM65°61%3 mph
21. 11 AM69°66%3 mph
22. 12 PM71°70%5 mph
23. 1 PM74°75%5 mph
24. 2 PM76°70%6 mph
25. 3 PM76°65%7 mph
26. 4 PM75°60%8 mph
27. 5 PM74°55%10 mph
28. 6 PM70°50%13 mph
29. 7 PM66°45%14 mph
30. 8 PM63°23%14 mph
31. 9 PM62°43%15 mph
32. 10 PM61°15%14 mph
33. 11 PM60°5%13 mph
34. Fri12 AM59°12 mph
35. 1 AM58°12 mph
36. 2 AM57°10 mph
37. 3 AM56°10 mph
38. 4 AM55°10 mph
39. 5 AM53°10 mph
40. 6 AM53°1%12 mph
41. 7 AM52°2%10 mph
42. 8 AM51°2%12 mph
43. 9 AM52°2%12 mph
44. 10 AM54°2%12 mph
45. 11 AM57°2%12 mph
46. 12 PM60°2%12 mph
47. 1 PM63°1%12 mph
48. 2 PM65°1%12 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 3078°66°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely100%0.86 inwind 17 mph · gusts 26 mph
2. ThuOct 176°51°Showers And Thunderstorms75%0.54 inwind 15 mph · gusts 25 mph
3. FriOct 268°48°Mostly Sunny2%wind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph
4. SatOct 373°54°Sunny0%wind 3 mph
5. SunOct 477°53°Sunny1%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
6. MonOct 577°55°Sunny1%wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
7. TueOct 680°58°Mostly Sunny15%wind 13 mph · gusts 21 mph
8. WedOct 781°60°20%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
9. ThuOct 882°59°National Blend6%wind 3 mph · gusts 9 mph
10. FriOct 982°59°National Blend2%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
11. SatOct 1082°58°National Blend5%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
12. SunOct 11~68°57°Model mean0.03 in
13. MonOct 12~70°53°Model mean
14. TueOct 13~69°50°Model mean
15. WedOct 14~71°50°Model mean
16. ThuOct 15~59°50°Model mean0.05 in

• Feels like76°
• WindS 17 mphgusts 26 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity82%
• Dew point70°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility5 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
• Moonrise9:38 PMMoonset 12:07 PM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous82% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 30—64°NWS grid 78° / 66°rain 82%thunder 37%wind 17 mph · gusts 31 mph
2. ThuOct 177°51°NWS grid 76° / 51°rain 83%thunder 36%0.54 inwind 15 mph · gusts 25 mph
3. FriOct 268°48°NWS grid 68° / 48°rain 14%wind 12 mph · gusts 21 mph
4. SatOct 373°54°NWS grid 73° / 54°rain 1%wind 3 mph
5. SunOct 477°53°NWS grid 77° / 53°rain 1%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
6. MonOct 577°55°NWS grid 77° / 55°rain 2%wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
7. TueOct 682°60°NWS grid 80° / 58°rain 20%thunder 13%wind 12 mph · gusts 21 mph
8. WedOct 783°60°NWS grid 81° / 60°rain 19%thunder 11%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
9. ThuOct 882°59°Beyond the NWS gridrain 6%wind 3 mph · gusts 9 mph
10. FriOct 982°59°Beyond the NWS gridrain 2%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
11. SatOct 1082°58°Beyond the NWS gridrain 5%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Thu Oct 15, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and low

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, chance of rain, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)). Next good stretch: Fri 5 PM to 7 PM, 2 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 7:01 AM to sunrise 7:31 AM, and sunset 7:21 PM to 7:51 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Fri 5 PM to 10 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 3 PM to 6 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 12 PM to 9 PM 9 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 12 PM to 10 PM 10 hours, every hour within the rules
• Tue 7 PM to 11 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Wed 12 PM to 4 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Thursday, rated fair.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. This Afternoon78° · 72% · S 17 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

2. Tonight64° · 46% · SE 3–14 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southeast wind 3 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

3. Thursday76° · 75% · NNE 3–10 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then rain likely between 7am and 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. North northeast wind 3 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

4. Thursday Night51° · 50% · NNE 10–15 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

5. Friday68° · 2% · NNE 8–12 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. North northeast wind 8 to 12 mph.

6. Friday Night48° · 1% · ENE 2–6 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 48.

7. Saturday73° · ESE 3 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 73.

8. Saturday Night54° · ENE 2 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

9. Sunday77° · 1% · NNE 0–5 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 77.

10. Sunday Night53° · 1% · ENE 3 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

11. Monday77° · 1% · ESE 2–6 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 77.

12. Monday Night55° · 1% · SSE 5 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

13. Tuesday80° · 8% · S 6–13 mph

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

14. Tuesday Night58° · 20% · S 5–9 mph

    A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Reading the outlooks…

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 21 and the first fall freeze around October 22: a growing season of about 183 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 6; one spring in ten still has one after May 3.

Climate of 37.53, -99.05: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.