36.7560, -95.8470

1. Tue2 AM71°6 mph
2. 3 AM70°6 mph
3. 4 AM69°2%7 mph
4. 5 AM68°2%7 mph
5. 6 AM68°2%8 mph
6. 7 AM67°7%8 mph
7. 8 AM68°7%9 mph
8. 9 AM70°7%10 mph
9. 10 AM74°11%12 mph
10. 11 AM75°11%13 mph
11. 12 PM77°11%13 mph
12. 1 PM78°17%13 mph
13. 2 PM80°17%13 mph
14. 3 PM81°17%12 mph
15. 4 PM82°7%12 mph
16. 5 PM84°7%10 mph
17. 6 PM82°7%9 mph
18. 7 PM82°4%8 mph
19. 8 PM79°4%7 mph
20. 9 PM77°4%8 mph
21. 10 PM76°3%8 mph
22. 11 PM75°3%8 mph
23. Wed12 AM75°3%8 mph
24. 1 AM75°3%8 mph
25. 2 AM74°3%9 mph
26. 3 AM74°3%9 mph
27. 4 AM73°4%10 mph
28. 5 AM72°4%12 mph
29. 6 AM72°4%12 mph
30. 7 AM71°2%12 mph
31. 8 AM72°2%13 mph
32. 9 AM74°2%13 mph
33. 10 AM77°1%14 mph
34. 11 AM79°1%15 mph
35. 12 PM81°1%16 mph
36. 1 PM82°26%16 mph
37. 2 PM83°26%16 mph
38. 3 PM83°26%16 mph
39. 4 PM84°30%15 mph
40. 5 PM86°30%14 mph
41. 6 PM84°30%13 mph
42. 7 PM83°52%10 mph
43. 8 PM80°52%10 mph
44. 9 PM78°52%9 mph
45. 10 PM76°52%8 mph
46. 11 PM75°52%8 mph
47. Thu12 AM75°52%8 mph
48. 1 AM74°92%9 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2985°70°Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers17%wind 13 mph · gusts 22 mph
2. WedSep 3088°67°Partly Sunny then Chance Rain Showers52%0.27 inwind 16 mph · gusts 28 mph
3. ThuOct 175°62°Showers And Thunderstorms98%2.32 inwind 10 mph · gusts 17 mph
4. FriOct 271°59°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely71%0.23 inwind 12 mph · gusts 20 mph
5. SatOct 371°58°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms30%0.03 inwind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
6. SunOct 474°54°Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny15%0.01 inwind 10 mph · gusts 18 mph
7. MonOct 574°52°Slight Chance Rain Showers then Sunny15%0.01 inwind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
8. TueOct 676°52°5%wind 6 mph
9. WedOct 780°58°National Blend7%wind 6 mph
10. ThuOct 880°57°National Blend5%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
11. FriOct 9~73°53°Model mean
12. SatOct 10~76°54°Model mean
13. SunOct 11~74°57°Model mean
14. MonOct 12~71°51°Model mean
15. TueOct 13~77°59°Model mean
16. WedOct 14~76°56°Model mean

• Feels like71°
• WindSE 6 mphgusts 9 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity73%
• Dew point62°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
• Moonrise8:42 PMMoonset 10:38 AM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous90% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 2985°71°NWS grid 85° / 70°rain 28%thunder 13%wind 13 mph · gusts 22 mph
2. WedSep 3086°68°NWS grid 88° / 67°rain 93%thunder 35%0.38 inwind 17 mph · gusts 29 mph
3. ThuOct 176°61°NWS grid 75° / 62°rain 99%thunder 33%2.29 inwind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
4. FriOct 271°60°NWS grid 71° / 59°rain 51%thunder 25%0.33 inwind 13 mph · gusts 20 mph
5. SatOct 373°59°NWS grid 71° / 58°rain 19%thunder 23%0.02 inwind 7 mph
6. SunOct 474°53°NWS grid 74° / 54°rain 7%wind 10 mph · gusts 18 mph
7. MonOct 574°52°NWS grid 74° / 52°rain 6%wind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
8. TueOct 676°56°NWS grid 76° / 52°rain 6%wind 6 mph
9. WedOct 780°58°Beyond the NWS gridrain 7%wind 6 mph
10. ThuOct 880°57°Beyond the NWS gridrain 5%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
11. FriOct 979°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 1%wind 7 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Wed Oct 14, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (gusts near or over your limit, low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). No stretch of two good hours in the next three days.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:47 AM to sunrise 7:17 AM, and sunset 7:10 PM to 7:40 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Tue 2 AM to 8 AM 6 hours, every hour within the rules
• Tue 7 PM to Wed 3 AM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 6 PM to 9 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 12 PM to 8 PM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
• Tue 11 AM to 4 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Tuesday, rated fair.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Overnight66° · 2% · SE 5 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

2. Tuesday85° · 17% · S 10–15 mph

   A slight chance of rain showers between 1pm and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

3. Tuesday Night70° · 7% · SE 5–10 mph

   Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

4. Wednesday88° · 30% · S 10–15 mph

   A chance of rain showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

5. Wednesday Night67° · 92% · S 10–15 mph

   A chance of rain showers before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 1am, then showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

6. Thursday75° · 98% · S 5–10 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

7. Thursday Night62° · 84% · E 5 mph

   Rain showers before 7pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

8. Friday71° · 61% · N 10 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

9. Friday Night59° · 22% · NE 5–10 mph

   A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

10. Saturday71° · 30% · NE 5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

11. Saturday Night58° · 18% · N 5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

12. Sunday74° · 15% · N 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

13. Sunday Night54° · 15% · NE 5–10 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

14. Monday74° · 15% · NE 5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 7am. Sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS44 KTSA 290056
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
756 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-300100-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
756 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Thunderstorm...High Wind...and Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A strong storm system coupled with a plume of tropical moisture 
will result in widespread rains and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is
likely, although placement of the heaviest rains remains somewhat
uncertain. Parts of eastern Oklahoma are more favored for the 
higher rain totals currently. A window of severe weather potential
may develop, especially late Wednesday afternoon and evening 
across parts of eastern Oklahoma. The heaviest rains will taper 
off by Friday, but a few showers may linger into the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 12 and the first fall freeze around October 21: a growing season of about 192 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 5; one spring in ten still has one after April 28.

Climate of 36.76, -95.85: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.