36.1790, -94.0860

1. Sat1 AM61°2%7 mph
2. 2 AM60°2%7 mph
3. 3 AM60°2%7 mph
4. 4 AM60°3%7 mph
5. 5 AM59°3%7 mph
6. 6 AM59°3%7 mph
7. 7 AM60°4%7 mph
8. 8 AM59°4%7 mph
9. 9 AM61°4%8 mph
10. 10 AM64°5%8 mph
11. 11 AM67°5%8 mph
12. 12 PM69°5%7 mph
13. 1 PM71°5%6 mph
14. 2 PM72°5%6 mph
15. 3 PM73°5%5 mph
16. 4 PM73°4%5 mph
17. 5 PM74°4%5 mph
18. 6 PM73°4%5 mph
19. 7 PM71°4%5 mph
20. 8 PM68°4%3 mph
21. 9 PM66°4%2 mph
22. 10 PM65°2%2 mph
23. 11 PM64°2%1 mph
24. Sun12 AM63°2%0 mph
25. 1 AM63°2%0 mph
26. 2 AM62°2%0 mph
27. 3 AM62°2%1 mph
28. 4 AM60°2%1 mph
29. 5 AM59°2%1 mph
30. 6 AM59°2%1 mph
31. 7 AM58°2 mph
32. 8 AM59°3 mph
33. 9 AM62°5 mph
34. 10 AM66°7 mph
35. 11 AM70°9 mph
36. 12 PM72°9 mph
37. 1 PM75°9 mph
38. 2 PM76°9 mph
39. 3 PM77°9 mph
40. 4 PM78°9 mph
41. 5 PM77°9 mph
42. 6 PM76°7 mph
43. 7 PM72°6 mph
44. 8 PM67°6 mph
45. 9 PM66°6 mph
46. 10 PM64°6 mph
47. 11 PM63°6 mph
48. Mon12 AM61°5 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodayOct 375°57°Mostly Cloudy5%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
2. SunOct 478°53°Sunny2%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
3. MonOct 576°50°Sunny0%wind 7 mph
4. TueOct 678°51°Sunny0%wind 3 mph
5. WedOct 782°56°Sunny0%wind 2 mph
6. ThuOct 884°59°Sunny0%wind 5 mph
7. FriOct 986°61°Sunny0%wind 6 mph
8. SatOct 1086°63°5%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
9. SunOct 1185°63°National Blend13%0.12 inwind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
10. MonOct 1282°59°National Blend14%0.03 inwind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
11. TueOct 13~82°64°Model mean0.13 in
12. WedOct 14~82°67°Model mean0.10 in
13. ThuOct 15~77°65°Model mean0.05 in
14. FriOct 16~67°52°Model mean0.01 in
15. SatOct 17~66°46°Model mean
16. SunOct 18~71°48°Model mean

• Feels like61°
• WindENE 7 mphgusts 14 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity100%
• Dew point61°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
• Moonrise—Moonset 2:53 PM
• Moon phaseLast quarter53% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodayOct 374°57°NWS grid 75° / 57°rain 5%wind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
2. SunOct 478°54°NWS grid 78° / 53°rain 2%wind 9 mph · gusts 15 mph
3. MonOct 577°51°NWS grid 76° / 50°rain 0%wind 7 mph
4. TueOct 678°51°NWS grid 78° / 51°rain 0%wind 3 mph
5. WedOct 782°56°NWS grid 82° / 56°rain 0%wind 3 mph
6. ThuOct 884°59°NWS grid 84° / 59°rain 0%wind 5 mph
7. FriOct 985°60°NWS grid 86° / 61°rain 0%wind 6 mph
8. SatOct 1085°62°NWS grid 86° / 63°rain 5%wind 9 mph · gusts 15 mph
9. SunOct 1185°63°Beyond the NWS gridrain 13%0.12 inwind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
10. MonOct 1282°59°Beyond the NWS gridrain 14%0.03 inwind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
11. TueOct 1380°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 7%wind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sun Oct 18, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and low

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

The last night runs past the end of the forecast and is rated on the hours it covers.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (low cloud limits height (107.51), gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Sat 8 AM to 6 PM, 10 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:43 AM to sunrise 7:13 AM, and sunset 6:57 PM to 7:27 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Sat 12 PM to 8 PM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 11 AM to 1 PM 2 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 5 PM to 11 PM 6 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 10 AM to Tue 12 AM 14 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
• Tue 9 AM to 12 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 1 PM to 8 PM 7 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
• Fri 10 AM to 4 PM 6 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
• Fri 5 PM to Sat 1 PM 20 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Friday, rated best.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Overnight59° · 3% · E 5 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 5 mph.

2. Saturday75° · 5% · E 5–10 mph

   Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

3. Saturday Night57° · 4% · NE 0–5 mph

   Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northeast wind 0 to 5 mph.

4. Sunday78° · 2% · NE 0–10 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind 0 to 10 mph.

5. Sunday Night53° · NE 5 mph

   Clear, with a low around 53. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

6. Monday76° · NE 5 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

7. Monday Night50° · E 0–5 mph

   Clear, with a low around 50. East wind 0 to 5 mph.

8. Tuesday78° · SE 0–5 mph

   Sunny, with a high near 78. Southeast wind 0 to 5 mph.

9. Tuesday Night51° · 0 mph

   Mostly clear, with a low around 51. South wind around 0 mph.

10. Wednesday82° · 0 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 82. South wind around 0 mph.

11. Wednesday Night56° · 0 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 56. South wind around 0 mph.

12. Thursday84° · S 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 84. South wind 0 to 5 mph.

13. Thursday Night59° · S 0–5 mph

    Clear, with a low around 59. South wind 0 to 5 mph.

14. Friday86° · SE 0–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 86. Southeast wind 0 to 5 mph.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS44 KTSA 030017
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
717 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-040030-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
717 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West-Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
There is a low chance that an isolated thunderstorm could occur
tonight in southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas within
the zone of lingering moisture.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A low chance of an isolated thunderstorm will continue on Saturday in
southeast Oklahoma until the airmass dries further. 

Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in from the north
over the next couple of days. Quiet weather is expected from Sunday into
next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Reading the outlooks…

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 4 and the first fall freeze around October 31: a growing season of about 209 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 17; one spring in ten still has one after April 22.

Climate of 36.18, -94.09: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.