36.0210, -95.6560

1. Sat1 PM75°24%7 mph
2. 2 PM79°36%9 mph
3. 3 PM80°36%10 mph
4. 4 PM80°30%10 mph
5. 5 PM81°30%9 mph
6. 6 PM81°30%9 mph
7. 7 PM81°6%8 mph
8. 8 PM79°6%8 mph
9. 9 PM77°6%8 mph
10. 10 PM76°19%8 mph
11. 11 PM74°19%8 mph
12. Sun12 AM73°19%8 mph
13. 1 AM72°60%7 mph
14. 2 AM71°60%7 mph
15. 3 AM70°60%6 mph
16. 4 AM69°77%6 mph
17. 5 AM68°77%6 mph
18. 6 AM67°77%7 mph
19. 7 AM66°42%7 mph
20. 8 AM67°42%7 mph
21. 9 AM69°42%8 mph
22. 10 AM72°42%8 mph
23. 11 AM75°42%9 mph
24. 12 PM78°42%10 mph
25. 1 PM80°12%10 mph
26. 2 PM82°12%10 mph
27. 3 PM84°12%9 mph
28. 4 PM86°12%7 mph
29. 5 PM85°12%7 mph
30. 6 PM83°12%7 mph
31. 7 PM81°11%6 mph
32. 8 PM78°11%6 mph
33. 9 PM76°11%5 mph
34. 10 PM74°11%5 mph
35. 11 PM73°11%5 mph
36. Mon12 AM72°11%5 mph
37. 1 AM71°10%5 mph
38. 2 AM71°10%5 mph
39. 3 AM70°10%3 mph
40. 4 AM69°10%3 mph
41. 5 AM68°10%3 mph
42. 6 AM67°10%5 mph
43. 7 AM67°14%6 mph
44. 8 AM69°14%6 mph
45. 9 AM71°14%7 mph
46. 10 AM74°14%7 mph
47. 11 AM77°14%7 mph
48. 12 PM79°14%8 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2682°68°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms59%wind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
2. SunSep 2786°67°Showers And Thunderstorms77%0.16 inwind 10 mph
3. MonSep 2887°70°Mostly Sunny14%wind 8 mph
4. TueSep 2986°71°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms41%0.29 inwind 14 mph · gusts 22 mph
5. WedSep 3082°68°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely60%1.03 inwind 18 mph · gusts 28 mph
6. ThuOct 179°64°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely61%1.21 inwind 12 mph · gusts 18 mph
7. FriOct 280°65°Chance Rain Showers39%0.52 inwind 8 mph · gusts 14 mph
8. SatOct 383°65°31%0.30 inwind 8 mph
9. SunOct 479°58°National Blend20%0.04 inwind 13 mph · gusts 20 mph
10. MonOct 577°58°National Blend10%wind 7 mph
11. TueOct 679°61°National Blend10%0.02 inwind 7 mph
12. WedOct 7~71°51°Model mean
13. ThuOct 8~74°52°Model mean
14. FriOct 9~77°58°Model mean
15. SatOct 10~78°58°Model mean
16. SunOct 11~80°62°Model mean

• Feels like75°
• WindS 7 mphgusts 16 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity76%
• Dew point67°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
• Moonrise7:06 PMMoonset 7:08 AM
• Moon phaseFull moon100% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 2687°68°NWS grid 82° / 68°rain 60%thunder 26%wind 10 mph · gusts 17 mph
2. SunSep 2787°69°NWS grid 86° / 67°rain 72%thunder 23%0.15 inwind 9 mph
3. MonSep 2888°71°NWS grid 87° / 70°rain 14%wind 8 mph
4. TueSep 2988°72°NWS grid 86° / 71°rain 45%thunder 25%0.26 inwind 14 mph · gusts 22 mph
5. WedSep 3083°70°NWS grid 82° / 68°rain 71%thunder 32%1.11 inwind 18 mph · gusts 26 mph
6. ThuOct 181°66°NWS grid 79° / 64°rain 75%thunder 39%1.65 inwind 13 mph · gusts 20 mph
7. FriOct 280°65°NWS grid 80° / 65°rain 41%thunder 24%1.09 inwind 12 mph · gusts 17 mph
8. SatOct 383°65°NWS grid 83° / 65°rain 32%thunder 15%0.44 inwind 7 mph
9. SunOct 479°58°Beyond the NWS gridrain 20%0.04 inwind 13 mph · gusts 20 mph
10. MonOct 577°58°Beyond the NWS gridrain 10%wind 7 mph
11. TueOct 679°61°Beyond the NWS gridrain 10%0.02 inwind 7 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sun Oct 11, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (thunderstorms possible, gusts near or over your limit). Next good stretch: Mon 8 AM to 7 PM, 11 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:44 AM to sunrise 7:14 AM, and sunset 7:13 PM to 7:43 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Sat 7 PM to 9 PM 2 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 3 PM to 11 PM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 10 AM to Tue 3 AM 17 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Saturday, rated best.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. This Afternoon82° · 36% · S 5–10 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

2. Tonight66° · 77% · SE 5–10 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

3. Sunday86° · 77% · SE 5–10 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

4. Sunday Night67° · 12% · SE 5 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

5. Monday87° · 14% · SE 5–10 mph

   Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

6. Monday Night70° · 12% · SE 5–10 mph

   Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

7. Tuesday86° · 41% · S 10–15 mph

   A slight chance of rain showers between 7am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

8. Tuesday Night71° · 51% · S 10–15 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

9. Wednesday82° · 60% · S 15–20 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

10. Wednesday Night68° · 61% · S 10–15 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

11. Thursday79° · 61% · S 10 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

12. Thursday Night64° · 53% · S 5–10 mph

    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

13. Friday80° · 39% · S 5–10 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

14. Friday Night65° · 30% · SE 5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS44 KTSA 261019
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-271030-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
519 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Morning.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
through tonight. The main thunderstorm chances today will remain
over northeast Oklahoma, spreading into far northwest Arkansas
overnight. Rainfall amounts will generally remain on the light
side.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
            Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to diminish during the
day Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a potential
for locally heavy rainfall amounts, are expected during the middle
part of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around March 31 and the first fall freeze around November 4: a growing season of about 220 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 20; one spring in ten still has one after April 15.

Climate of 36.02, -95.66: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.