Current weather · Oct 2, 4:27 AM PDT

35.7060, -118.5600

61°

ClearFeels like 61° · Humidity 31%NWS forecast for this hour; no recent station reportForecast by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA · grid 87,46
High
76°
Low
61°
Rain today
1%
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
6:36 PM

Hour by hour

NWS forecast grid

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

Every hour as a table48 hours
TimeWeatherTemperatureFeels likeDew pointHumidityChanceAmountSnowDirWindGustSky coverThunderPressureVisibilityCeiling
Fri 4 AM61°61°30°31%0%ENE18 mph21 mph5%——
Fri 5 AM60°60°30°32%0%ENE18 mph21 mph1%——
Fri 6 AM60°60°30°32%0%ENE22 mph24 mph4%——
Fri 7 AM60°60°29°31%0%ENE21 mph23 mph5%——
Fri 8 AM62°62°30°30%0%E18 mph21 mph6%——
Fri 9 AM65°65°30°27%0%E10 mph16 mph6%——
Fri 10 AM68°68°30°24%0%E5 mph12 mph13%——
Fri 11 AM70°70°31°23%0%ESE3 mph12 mph17%——
Fri 12 PM72°72°32°23%0%ESE2 mph10 mph26%——
Fri 1 PM73°73°33°23%0%ESE0 mph9 mph15%——
Fri 2 PM74°74°34°23%0%SE0 mph8 mph40%——
Fri 3 PM75°75°34°22%0%SSW0 mph12 mph54%——
Fri 4 PM74°74°34°23%0%WSW0 mph14 mph41%——
Fri 5 PM72°72°34°25%1%WNW6 mph16 mph37%——
Fri 6 PM69°69°36°30%1%WNW6 mph14 mph54%——
Fri 7 PM64°64°36°35%1%N5 mph12 mph55%——
Fri 8 PM63°63°36°36%1%SE6 mph12 mph56%——
Fri 9 PM63°63°33°32%1%ESE7 mph12 mph42%——
Fri 10 PM63°63°32°31%1%E8 mph12 mph47%——
Fri 11 PM64°64°34°33%0%E8 mph10 mph31%——
Sat 12 AM63°63°34°34%0%ENE8 mph10 mph33%——
Sat 1 AM63°63°34°34%0%E10 mph12 mph32%——
Sat 2 AM63°63°34°34%0%E12 mph14 mph26%——
Sat 3 AM63°63°35°35%0%ENE14 mph16 mph18%——
Sat 4 AM63°63°35°35%0%ENE16 mph18 mph23%——
Sat 5 AM62°62°35°36%0%ENE18 mph24 mph23%——
Sat 6 AM61°61°36°39%0%ENE18 mph24 mph23%——
Sat 7 AM61°61°36°39%0%ENE18 mph24 mph23%——
Sat 8 AM63°63°37°38%0%E10 mph21 mph7%——
Sat 9 AM65°65°38°37%0%E10 mph21 mph7%——
Sat 10 AM68°68°39°35%0%E10 mph21 mph7%——
Sat 11 AM69°69°39°33%0%SE2 mph13 mph3%——
Sat 12 PM70°70°39°32%0%SE2 mph13 mph3%——
Sat 1 PM73°73°39°29%0%SE2 mph13 mph3%——
Sat 2 PM73°73°39°29%0%SSE2 mph16 mph2%——
Sat 3 PM73°73°38°28%0%SSE2 mph16 mph2%——
Sat 4 PM74°74°37°26%0%SSE2 mph16 mph2%——
Sat 5 PM72°72°37°28%0%SE6 mph15 mph2%——
Sat 6 PM69°69°39°33%0%SE6 mph15 mph2%——
Sat 7 PM66°66°42°42%0%SE6 mph15 mph2%——
Sat 8 PM63°63°38°39%0%E10 mph18 mph4%——
Sat 9 PM62°62°42°48%0%E10 mph18 mph4%——
Sat 10 PM63°63°42°46%0%E10 mph18 mph4%——
Sat 11 PM64°64°37°37%0%ENE17 mph23 mph3%——
Sun 12 AM64°64°42°45%0%ENE17 mph23 mph3%——
Sun 1 AM63°63°42°46%0%ENE17 mph23 mph3%——
Sun 2 AM63°63°38°39%0%ENE21 mph29 mph3%——
Sun 3 AM62°62°43°50%0%ENE21 mph29 mph3%——

The next 16 days

NWS grid published Oct 2, 3:56 AM PDT to day 8, the National Blend of Models to day 10, the mean of GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AI to day 16
  1. TodayOct 276°61°Sunny1%wind 22 mph
  2. SatOct 375°61°Sunny0%wind 18 mph · gusts 24 mph
  3. SunOct 474°60°Sunny0%wind 23 mph · gusts 33 mph
  4. MonOct 572°59°Sunny0%wind 21 mph
  5. TueOct 672°59°Sunny0%wind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
  6. WedOct 773°59°Sunny0%wind 15 mph
  7. ThuOct 873°59°Sunny0%wind 15 mph
  8. FriOct 971°60°1%wind 12 mph · gusts 22 mph
  9. SatOct 1066°53°National Blend3%wind 13 mph · gusts 23 mph
  10. SunOct 1163°51°National Blend3%wind 12 mph · gusts 21 mph
  11. MonOct 12~67°48°Model mean0.02 in
  12. TueOct 13~67°46°Model mean0.02 in
  13. WedOct 14~63°45°Model mean
  14. ThuOct 15~66°44°Model mean
  15. FriOct 16~61°42°Model mean
  16. SatOct 17~62°44°Model mean

Right now

NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow
  • Feels like61°
  • WindENE 18 mph
  • Radar over this pointno reading
  • Humidity31%
  • Dew point30°
  • Pressure—
  • UV index—
  • Air quality—
  • Visibility—
  • Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
  • Moonrise11:06 PMMoonset 1:38 PM
  • Moon phaseWaning gibbous63% lit

The National Blend of Models

NOAA NBM v5.0 · run of Oct 1, 11:00 PM PDT

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

  1. TodayOct 276°61°NWS grid 76° / 61°rain 1%wind 22 mph
  2. SatOct 375°61°NWS grid 75° / 61°rain 1%wind 20 mph
  3. SunOct 473°60°NWS grid 74° / 60°rain 0%wind 24 mph · gusts 33 mph
  4. MonOct 572°59°NWS grid 72° / 59°rain 0%wind 21 mph
  5. TueOct 672°59°NWS grid 72° / 59°rain 0%wind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
  6. WedOct 773°59°NWS grid 73° / 59°rain 0%wind 15 mph
  7. ThuOct 873°59°NWS grid 73° / 59°rain 0%wind 15 mph
  8. FriOct 971°56°NWS grid 71° / 60°rain 2%wind 12 mph · gusts 22 mph
  9. SatOct 1066°53°Beyond the NWS gridrain 3%wind 13 mph · gusts 23 mph
  10. SunOct 1163°51°Beyond the NWS gridrain 3%wind 12 mph · gusts 21 mph
  11. MonOct 1263°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 5%wind 14 mph · gusts 21 mph
59°68°77°SatSunMonTueWedThuFri

BlendNWS gridChance of rain, hourly

The models, side by side

HRRR Oct 1, 11:00 PM PDT · GFS Oct 1, 5:00 PM PDT · GEFS Oct 1, 5:00 PM PDT · ECMWF Oct 1, 5:00 PM PDT · ECMWF AI Oct 1, 5:00 PM PDT

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

50°73°95°SatSunMonTueWedThuFri

DayNWS gridHRRRGFSGEFSECMWFECMWF AI
Today Oct 276° 61°78° 60°88° 61°88° 63°87° 62°~82° 60°
Sat Oct 375° 61°77° 61°88° 60°88° 64°~86° 67°~83° 60°
Sun Oct 474° 60°—86° 62°87° 64°84° 62°~82° 62°
Mon Oct 572° 59°—84° 59°84° 63°84° 61°~80° 61°
Tue Oct 672° 59°—85° 60°85° 62°~85° 62°~80° 60°
Wed Oct 773° 59°—88° 61°87° 64°88° 61°~81° 60°
Thu Oct 873° 59°—87° 61°88° 64°~83° 62°~82° 61°
Fri Oct 971° 60°—87° 61°86° 64°~82° 61°~79° 61°
Sat Oct 10——84° 60°83° 61°~79° 59°~69° 55°
Sun Oct 11——84° 58°82° 59°~65° 46°~60° 48°
Mon Oct 12——~80° 58°—~65° 42°~55° 43°0.05 in
Tue Oct 13——~75° 50°—~69° 44°~55° 42°0.05 in
Wed Oct 14——~55° 44°0.02 in—~73° 51°~60° 42°
Thu Oct 15——~57° 34°—~78° 54°~61° 44°
Fri Oct 16——~64° 41°—~55° 55°~59° 43°
Sat Oct 17——~62° 44°———

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

ECMWF ensemble meteogram for this place: box plots of cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and temperature from the 51 ensemble members for ten days.
Rendered by ECMWF from its 51-member ensemble, in metric units: each box spans the middle half of the members, the whiskers the rest, the line the control run. A forecast, not an observation. © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

The next 90 days

NOAA GHCN normals and records at Bakersfield/Meadows (BFL) · Climate Prediction Center outlooks

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sat Oct 17, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature lean50%90%70%warmer 50%40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec20°40°60°80°100°TodayNov 1Dec 1

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normal

Week ofNormalWarmest on recordColdest on recordTemperature leanPrecipitation lean
Oct 281° / 56°103° (2024)41° (1937)50% chance above normal · Oct 202633% chance below normal · Oct 2026
Oct 980° / 55°102° (1978)41° (1984)70% chance above normal · days 8 to 1433% chance below normal · days 8 to 14
Oct 1679° / 54°100° (1959)38° (1949)50% chance above normal · Oct 202633% chance below normal · Oct 2026
Oct 2377° / 51°95° (1959)32° (1971)50% chance above normal · Oct 202633% chance below normal · Oct 2026
Oct 3073° / 49°94° (2010)29° (1971)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 669° / 46°91° (1949)30° (1938)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 1368° / 44°87° (2020)28° (1938)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 2065° / 43°84° (2017)28° (1994)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 2762° / 41°83° (1959)27° (2004)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 460° / 41°82° (1939)25° (1978)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 1157° / 40°80° (1958)25° (1967)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 1857° / 37°80° (1981)19° (1990)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 2557° / 38°75° (2023)21° (1962)40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec

Health and activities

Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollen

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Health

  • Arthritisnext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Sinus pressurenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Common coldtodayModeratedry air
  • FlutodayModeratedry air
  • Migrainenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
  • Heat stresstodayLowmild
  • SunburntodayLowweak sun
  • Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
  • SleepingtonightIdealcool, quiet night

Outdoors

  • RunningtodayVery goodhot
  • HikingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • BikingtodayVery goodwind
  • GolftodayVery goodwind
  • FishingtodayVery goodwind
  • Boating and paddlingtodayGoodwind
  • Beach and pooltodayIdealfine conditions
  • CampingtonightIdealfine conditions
  • StargazingtonightVery goodbright moon

Travel

  • Air travelnext 24 hIdealclear skies
  • Drivingnext 24 hIdealclear roads

Home and garden

  • Lawn mowingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • GardeningtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Outdoor entertainingtodayVery goodwind
  • Drying laundry outsidetodayIdealfine conditions
  • Painting and outdoor projectstodayIdealfine conditions
  • FrosttonightLowmild

Pests

  • MosquitoestodayModeratewarm
  • TickstodayHighwarm
  • Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
  • Outdoor peststodayModeratewarm

Stargazing

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moon

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Night ofRatingDarkClear hoursClear and moonlessMoon litTransparency (est.)DewStrongest wind
FridayPoor8:01 PM to 5:26 AM1 of 9None59%Good16 mph
SaturdayExcellent8:00 PM to 5:27 AM9 of 94 h from 8:00 PM49%Good21 mph
SundayExcellent7:58 PM to 5:28 AM9 of 95 h from 8:00 PM38%Good16 mph
MondayExcellent7:57 PM to 5:29 AM9 of 97 h from 8:00 PM28%Good7 mph
TuesdayExcellent7:55 PM to 5:29 AM9 of 99 h from 8:00 PM19%Good12 mph
WednesdayExcellent7:54 PM to 5:30 AM10 of 1010 h from 8:00 PM12%Good15 mph
ThursdayExcellent7:52 PM to 5:31 AM10 of 1010 h from 8:00 PM6%Good10 mph

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour and blue hour

Computed from the sun and moon positions
DayBlue hour, morningGolden hour, morningGolden hour, eveningBlue hour, evening
Fri6:25 AM to 6:35 AM6:35 AM to 7:24 AM6:02 PM to 6:52 PM6:52 PM to 7:02 PM
Sat6:25 AM to 6:35 AM6:35 AM to 7:25 AM6:01 PM to 6:50 PM6:50 PM to 7:00 PM
Sun6:26 AM to 6:36 AM6:36 AM to 7:26 AM5:59 PM to 6:49 PM6:49 PM to 6:59 PM
Mon6:27 AM to 6:37 AM6:37 AM to 7:27 AM5:58 PM to 6:48 PM6:48 PM to 6:57 PM
Tue6:28 AM to 6:38 AM6:38 AM to 7:27 AM5:57 PM to 6:46 PM6:46 PM to 6:56 PM
Wed6:29 AM to 6:39 AM6:39 AM to 7:28 AM5:55 PM to 6:45 PM6:45 PM to 6:55 PM
Thu6:29 AM to 6:39 AM6:39 AM to 7:29 AM5:54 PM to 6:43 PM6:43 PM to 6:53 PM
NESWSRSSMRMS
  • SR Sunrise 6:50 AM, 94° E
  • SS Sunset 6:36 PM, 266° W
  • MR Moonrise 11:06 PM, 56° NE
  • MS Moonset 1:38 PM, 305° NW
  • Waning gibbous, 63% lit

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

Drone flying

NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107

This hour: no-fly (wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Fri 10 AM to 6 PM, 8 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:20 AM to sunrise 6:50 AM, and sunset 6:36 PM to 7:06 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Fri6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sat12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sun12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Caution No-fly

HourVerdictWind (mph)400 ft est. (mph)Gust (mph)RainVisibilityCloud allowsTempKpWhy
Fri 4 AMNo-fly1827290%61°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 5 AMNo-fly1827290%60°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 6 AMNo-fly2232340%60°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 7 AMNo-fly2130320%60°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit
Fri 8 AMNo-fly1827290%62°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit
Fri 9 AMCaution1013190%65°gusts near or over your limit
Fri 10 AMGood55120%68°nothing against it
Fri 11 AMGood34120%70°nothing against it
Fri 12 PMGood23110%72°nothing against it
Fri 1 PMGood0090%73°nothing against it
Fri 2 PMGood0080%74°nothing against it
Fri 3 PMGood00120%75°nothing against it
Fri 4 PMGood00140%74°nothing against it
Fri 5 PMGood67181%72°nothing against it
Fri 6 PMCaution67151%69°civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Fri 7 PMCaution511181%64°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 8 PMCaution614201%63°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 9 PMCaution717211%63°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 10 PMCaution819231%63°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Fri 11 PMCaution819220%64°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 12 AMCaution819220%63°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 1 AMNo-fly1025260%63°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 2 AMCaution1217190%63°gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 3 AMCaution1420220%63°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Spraying and field work

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

  • Fri 6 PM to Sat 1 AM 7 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
  • Sat 6 PM to 8 PM 2 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
  • Mon 8 PM to Tue 5 AM 9 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Tue 2 PM to 5 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Tue 8 PM to 11 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Wed 2 PM to 5 PM 3 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
  • Wed 8 PM to Thu 2 AM 6 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Thu 2 PM to 5 PM 3 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
Fri6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sat12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sun12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Marginal No

Field days

DayDaytimeChance of rainRainLowest humidityStrongest windDry days in a rowHay drying
FridayDry1%0.00 in22%18 mph8 dGood
SaturdayDry0%0.00 in26%10 mph7 dGood
SundayDry0%0.00 in35%23 mph6 dGood
MondayDry0%0.00 in39%21 mph5 dGood
TuesdayDry0%0.00 in39%10 mph4 dGood
WednesdayDry0%0.00 in35%13 mph3 dGood
ThursdayDry0%0.00 in29%15 mph2 dGood
FridayDry1%0.00 in32%12 mph1 dGood

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

Solunar times

Computed from the moon’s position

The best-rated day this week is Thursday, rated good.

DayRatingMajor periodsMinor periodsMoonSunrise, sunset
Fri Fair4:50 AM to 6:50 AM5:21 PM to 7:21 PM1:08 PM to 2:08 PM10:36 PM to 11:36 PM 63%6:50 AM, 6:36 PM
Sat Fair5:52 AM to 7:52 AM6:22 PM to 8:22 PM2:03 PM to 3:03 PM 52%6:51 AM, 6:35 PM
Sun Fair6:52 AM to 8:52 AM7:20 PM to 9:20 PM11:46 PM to 12:46 AM2:48 PM to 3:48 PM 42%6:52 AM, 6:33 PM
Mon Fair7:47 AM to 9:47 AM8:14 PM to 10:14 PM12:58 AM to 1:58 AM3:26 PM to 4:26 PM 31%6:53 AM, 6:32 PM
Tue Poor8:39 AM to 10:39 AM9:03 PM to 11:03 PM2:09 AM to 3:09 AM3:58 PM to 4:58 PM 22%6:53 AM, 6:31 PM
Wed Fair9:27 AM to 11:27 AM9:50 PM to 11:50 PM3:18 AM to 4:18 AM4:26 PM to 5:26 PM 14%6:54 AM, 6:29 PM
Thu Good10:13 AM to 12:13 PM10:35 PM to 12:35 AM4:24 AM to 5:24 AM4:52 PM to 5:52 PM 7%6:55 AM, 6:28 PM

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

In words

NWS forecast periods, as issued
  1. Overnight60° · ENE 20 mph

    Clear, with a low around 60. East northeast wind around 20 mph.

  2. Friday76° · 1% · ESE 0–20 mph

    Sunny. High near 76, with temperatures falling to around 72 in the afternoon. East southeast wind 0 to 20 mph.

  3. Friday Night61° · 1% · ENE 5–20 mph

    Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. East northeast wind 5 to 20 mph.

  4. Saturday75° · ESE 0–20 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 75. East southeast wind 0 to 20 mph.

  5. Saturday Night61° · E 5–20 mph

    Clear, with a low around 61. East wind 5 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

  6. Sunday74° · E 15–25 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 74. East wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

  7. Sunday Night60° · E 10–20 mph

    Clear, with a low around 60. East wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

  8. Monday72° · ESE 0–20 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 72. East southeast wind 0 to 20 mph.

  9. Monday Night59° · NNE 5–10 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

  10. Tuesday72° · W 0–10 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 72. West wind 0 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

  11. Tuesday Night59° · NNE 10–15 mph

    Clear, with a low around 59. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

  12. Wednesday73° · SSE 0–15 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 73. South southeast wind 0 to 15 mph.

  13. Wednesday Night59° · NNE 10–15 mph

    Clear, with a low around 59. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

  14. Thursday73° · ESE 0–15 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 73. East southeast wind 0 to 15 mph.

The forecaster’s discussion

NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA · issued Oct 1, 10:15 PM PDT

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

KEY Messages

1. Above normal temperatures are expected in our area today, and temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend.

2. A Moderate Heat Risk through the Central Valley is very likely (60-80% chance) today with the chances increasing even further this weekend. Major Heat Risk is possible this weekend in portions of the Valley with a 50-60% chance.

3. A Heat Advisory for the weekend has been issued for the Valley and Foothills.

Discussion

A ridge parked over the southwest will continue to raise temperatures gradually through the rest of this week and into the weekend. The warmest day will be Sunday, where triple digits have a 70-90% chance of occurring in the south Valley and a 50-70% chance in the northern Valley. This has resulted in the issuance of a Heat Advisory for Saturday and Sunday. And while the temps top out on Sunday, the rest of the week and into next week are likely to remain in the upper 90's as the ridge continues to stay in place. A potential weak trough may make it way over northern California by next Friday, bringing temperatures down a few degrees, but remaining in the mid to upper 90's.

This heat being 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the rest of the 7 day period will mean Moderate Heat Risk will be widespread through that time with a 50-60% chance for Major Heat Risk along the western side of the Valley and around the Bakersfield area over the weekend. Major Heat Risk is a risk to much of the population, especially those without proper cooling overnight. Looking to the long term forecast, the chances for any relief to this heat are small, with the Climate Prediction Center putting the region under the 70-90% chance for above normal temperatures through day 14.

Aviation

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR Quality Issues

None.

Certainty

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX Watches / Warnings / Advisories

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ300>322.

The outlooks beyond

SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this point

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Severe weather

  1. Day 1 · Fri Oct 2No risk area
  2. Day 2 · Sat Oct 3No risk area
  3. Day 3 · Sun Oct 4No risk area
  4. Day 4 · Mon Oct 5No risk area
  5. Day 5 · Tue Oct 6No risk area
  6. Day 6 · Wed Oct 7No risk area
  7. Day 7 · Thu Oct 8No risk area
  8. Day 8 · Fri Oct 9No risk area

Rainfall

  1. Day 1 · Fri Oct 2Under 0.01 in
  2. Day 2 · Sat Oct 3Under 0.01 in
  3. Day 3 · Sun Oct 4Under 0.01 in
  4. Day 4-5 · Oct 5–Oct 6Under 0.01 in
  5. Day 6-7 · Oct 7–Oct 8Under 0.01 in

The rainfall forecast on the map, days 1 to 7

Six to fourteen days

  1. Days 6–10 · Temperature90% chance above normalOct 7–Oct 11
  2. Days 6–10 · PrecipitationNear normal most likelyOct 7–Oct 11
  3. Days 8–14 · Temperature70% chance above normalOct 9–Oct 15
  4. Days 8–14 · Precipitation33% chance below normalOct 9–Oct 15

Drought

  1. Drought Monitor, map of Sep 29D0 Abnormally dry

Drought in this county: the map, the record since 2000 and the outlook

Frost and climate

NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Glennville

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around May 11 and the first fall freeze around October 17: a growing season of about 155 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by September 30; one spring in ten still has one after June 6.

Climate of 35.71, -118.56: normals, records and every month

Everything else on the grid

NWS forecast grid · 23 elements

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

ElementFriSatSunMonTueWedThuFri
HeatRisk max1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor0 · Little1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor0 · Little
Wet bulb globe temperature max64°65°64°64°64°64°63°61°
Heat index max75°74°72°70°70°71°
Chance of thunder max0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%
Snow level min11,600 ft11,800 ft11,800 ft11,900 ft12,100 ft12,000 ft11,800 ft12,000 ft
Mixing height max8,000 ft7,600 ft9,000 ft500 ft
Transport wind max21 mph20 mph23 mph18 mph

Against the record

NOAA GHCN · Bakersfield/Meadows (BFL) · 34 mi away

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.

DayForecastNormalRecord highRecord low
Fri Oct 276° / 61°85° / 60°102° (1980)46° (1950)
Sat Oct 375° / 61°85° / 59°103° (2024)44° (1939)
Sun Oct 474° / 60°82° / 58°103° (1947)42° (1937)
Mon Oct 572° / 59°81° / 56°103° (1980)41° (1937)
Tue Oct 672° / 59°82° / 56°101° (1987)43° (1937)
Wed Oct 773° / 59°84° / 57°99° (1953)45° (1937)
Thu Oct 873° / 59°85° / 57°99° (2023)43° (1937)
Fri Oct 971° / 60°85° / 57°101° (1996)43° (1949)

Sun and moon

DayCivil twilightSunriseSunsetCivil twilightDaylightMoon
Fri6:25 AM6:50 AM6:36 PM7:02 PM11 h 46 min Waning gibbous · 63% lit
Sat6:25 AM6:51 AM6:35 PM7:00 PM11 h 44 min Last quarter · 52% lit
Sun6:26 AM6:52 AM6:33 PM6:59 PM11 h 41 min Last quarter · 42% lit
Mon6:27 AM6:53 AM6:32 PM6:57 PM11 h 39 min Waning crescent · 31% lit
Tue6:28 AM6:53 AM6:31 PM6:56 PM11 h 38 min Waning crescent · 22% lit
Wed6:29 AM6:54 AM6:29 PM6:55 PM11 h 35 min Waning crescent · 14% lit
Thu6:29 AM6:55 AM6:28 PM6:53 PM11 h 33 min Waning crescent · 7% lit
Fri6:30 AM6:56 AM6:26 PM6:52 PM11 h 30 min Waning crescent · 3% lit

Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).

What is here

Seven days
The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
Hour by hour
Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
Everything else on the grid
The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
The discussion
The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
Beyond the week
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
Against the record
Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
The next 90 days
The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.

Common questions

Where does this forecast come from?

From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.

How far ahead does it go?

The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.

Why is this different from the app on my phone?

Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.

What is a place’s address here?

Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.

What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from