35.3810, -91.5250

1. Wed11 PM78°9 mph
2. Thu12 AM77°9 mph
3. 1 AM77°9 mph
4. 2 AM76°9 mph
5. 3 AM75°9 mph
6. 4 AM74°9 mph
7. 5 AM74°9 mph
8. 6 AM73°8 mph
9. 7 AM72°4%7 mph
10. 8 AM74°5%8 mph
11. 9 AM76°2%8 mph
12. 10 AM80°1%9 mph
13. 11 AM83°2%10 mph
14. 12 PM85°1%10 mph
15. 1 PM88°3%10 mph
16. 2 PM89°3%10 mph
17. 3 PM89°3%10 mph
18. 4 PM90°3%10 mph
19. 5 PM88°1%9 mph
20. 6 PM87°3%7 mph
21. 7 PM85°2%6 mph
22. 8 PM80°3%6 mph
23. 9 PM79°3%6 mph
24. 10 PM78°5%6 mph
25. 11 PM77°7%7 mph
26. Fri12 AM76°12%7 mph
27. 1 AM76°41%7 mph
28. 2 AM75°34%7 mph
29. 3 AM74°36%6 mph
30. 4 AM74°40%6 mph
31. 5 AM73°53%6 mph
32. 6 AM72°66%5 mph
33. 7 AM72°78%3 mph
34. 8 AM72°78%3 mph
35. 9 AM73°78%3 mph
36. 10 AM73°78%3 mph
37. 11 AM75°78%3 mph
38. 12 PM76°78%5 mph
39. 1 PM77°86%5 mph
40. 2 PM76°86%5 mph
41. 3 PM75°86%6 mph
42. 4 PM74°86%7 mph
43. 5 PM73°86%8 mph
44. 6 PM71°86%10 mph
45. 7 PM70°35%12 mph
46. 8 PM69°35%13 mph
47. 9 PM69°35%14 mph
48. 10 PM68°35%14 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 3093°72°Partly Cloudy0%wind 9 mph
2. ThuOct 191°72°Partly Sunny7%wind 10 mph
3. FriOct 278°63°Showers And Thunderstorms86%0.47 inwind 14 mph
4. SatOct 372°61°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms35%0.09 inwind 14 mph
5. SunOct 476°58°Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Sunny22%wind 9 mph
6. MonOct 575°52°Sunny1%wind 13 mph
7. TueOct 675°54°Sunny2%wind 8 mph
8. WedOct 778°59°Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers15%0.01 inwind 3 mph
9. ThuOct 881°59°National Blend2%wind 6 mph
10. FriOct 981°59°National Blend2%wind 6 mph
11. SatOct 1081°59°National Blend7%0.01 inwind 6 mph
12. SunOct 11~77°63°Model mean0.41 in
13. MonOct 12~71°59°Model mean0.04 in
14. TueOct 13~66°49°Model mean
15. WedOct 14~72°48°Model mean
16. ThuOct 15~80°63°Model mean0.02 in

• Feels like78°
• WindS 9 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity62%
• Dew point64°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility—
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · set
• Moonrise9:15 PMMoonset 11:29 AM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous82% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 30—72°NWS grid 93° / 72°rain 0%wind 9 mph
2. ThuOct 191°72°NWS grid 91° / 72°rain 68%thunder 26%wind 12 mph
3. FriOct 277°62°NWS grid 78° / 63°rain 90%thunder 26%0.59 inwind 15 mph
4. SatOct 372°61°NWS grid 72° / 61°rain 43%thunder 12%0.05 inwind 15 mph
5. SunOct 474°57°NWS grid 76° / 58°rain 25%thunder 14%0.13 inwind 9 mph
6. MonOct 575°52°NWS grid 75° / 52°rain 0%wind 12 mph
7. TueOct 675°53°NWS grid 75° / 54°rain 1%wind 10 mph
8. WedOct 779°58°NWS grid 78° / 59°rain 4%wind 5 mph
9. ThuOct 881°59°Beyond the NWS gridrain 2%wind 6 mph
10. FriOct 981°59°Beyond the NWS gridrain 2%wind 6 mph
11. SatOct 1081°59°Beyond the NWS gridrain 7%0.01 inwind 6 mph
12. SunOct 1180°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 7%wind 5 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Thu Oct 15, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and low

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

The sun is down, so each rating says which span it is for: tomorrow’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Thu 8 AM to 6 PM, 10 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:30 AM to sunrise 7:00 AM, and sunset 6:51 PM to 7:21 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Wed 11 PM to Thu 11 AM 12 hours, every hour within the rules
• Thu 5 PM to 9 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sat 1 PM to 6 PM 5 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 11 AM to 10 PM 11 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 6 PM to Tue 2 AM 8 hours, every hour within the rules
• Tue 9 AM to Wed 2 AM 17 hours, every hour within the rules
• Wed 12 PM to 4 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Thursday, rated fair.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Tonight72° · S 10 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 10 mph.

2. Thursday91° · 5% · SSW 5–10 mph

   Partly sunny, with a high near 91. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

3. Thursday Night72° · 53% · S 5 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

4. Friday78° · 86% · SSE 5–10 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy. High near 78, with temperatures falling to around 73 in the afternoon. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

5. Friday Night63° · 86% · NNE 10–15 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

6. Saturday72° · 30% · NNE 10–15 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

7. Saturday Night61° · 22% · NNE 5–10 mph

   A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

8. Sunday76° · 17% · NNE 10 mph

   A slight chance of rain showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

9. Sunday Night58° · 8% · NNE 5–10 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

10. Monday75° · 1% · NNE 10–15 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 75.

11. Monday Night52° · 1% · NNE 5–10 mph

    Clear, with a low around 52.

12. Tuesday75° · 2% · NE 5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 75.

13. Tuesday Night54° · 4% · NE 5 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

14. Wednesday78° · 15% · NE 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Reading the outlooks…

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around March 27 and the first fall freeze around November 8: a growing season of about 228 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 24; one spring in ten still has one after April 12.

Climate of 35.38, -91.53: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.