34.9770, -95.7170

1. Sat10 PM79°18%3 mph
2. 11 PM78°18%3 mph
3. Sun12 AM77°18%3 mph
4. 1 AM77°29%3 mph
5. 2 AM76°29%3 mph
6. 3 AM74°29%3 mph
7. 4 AM72°50%3 mph
8. 5 AM71°50%3 mph
9. 6 AM70°50%3 mph
10. 7 AM69°58%3 mph
11. 8 AM70°58%3 mph
12. 9 AM71°58%3 mph
13. 10 AM75°30%5 mph
14. 11 AM79°30%6 mph
15. 12 PM83°30%6 mph
16. 1 PM87°11%6 mph
17. 2 PM88°11%5 mph
18. 3 PM91°11%5 mph
19. 4 PM91°17%3 mph
20. 5 PM89°17%3 mph
21. 6 PM87°17%2 mph
22. 7 PM84°30%2 mph
23. 8 PM80°30%2 mph
24. 9 PM78°30%2 mph
25. 10 PM77°30%2 mph
26. 11 PM75°30%2 mph
27. Mon12 AM74°30%2 mph
28. 1 AM73°33%2 mph
29. 2 AM72°33%1 mph
30. 3 AM71°33%1 mph
31. 4 AM70°33%2 mph
32. 5 AM70°33%2 mph
33. 6 AM70°33%2 mph
34. 7 AM69°19%2 mph
35. 8 AM70°19%3 mph
36. 9 AM73°19%5 mph
37. 10 AM77°19%5 mph
38. 11 AM80°19%5 mph
39. 12 PM84°19%6 mph
40. 1 PM87°19%6 mph
41. 2 PM89°19%6 mph
42. 3 PM90°19%5 mph
43. 4 PM90°19%5 mph
44. 5 PM89°19%5 mph
45. 6 PM87°19%3 mph
46. 7 PM84°1%3 mph
47. 8 PM82°1%3 mph
48. 9 PM80°1%3 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2690°69°Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms24%wind 5 mph · gusts 12 mph
2. SunSep 2792°69°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely58%0.13 inwind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
3. MonSep 2892°72°Chance Rain Showers33%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
4. TueSep 2993°73°Partly Sunny15%wind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
5. WedSep 3086°71°Rain Showers Likely61%0.90 inwind 12 mph · gusts 24 mph
6. ThuOct 182°66°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely70%1.70 inwind 8 mph · gusts 17 mph
7. FriOct 280°64°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely55%1.67 inwind 7 mph · gusts 15 mph
8. SatOct 383°68°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms35%0.53 inwind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
9. SunOct 482°60°National Blend26%0.11 inwind 7 mph · gusts 15 mph
10. MonOct 581°59°National Blend11%wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
11. TueOct 684°60°National Blend10%0.06 inwind 3 mph · gusts 9 mph
12. WedOct 7~76°55°Model mean
13. ThuOct 8~78°57°Model mean
14. FriOct 9~77°60°Model mean
15. SatOct 10~78°58°Model mean
16. SunOct 11~77°54°Model mean

• Feels like80°
• WindE 3 mphgusts 10 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity50%
• Dew point59°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · set
• Moonrise7:07 PMMoonset 7:08 AM
• Moon phaseFull moon100% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 26—68°NWS grid 90° / 69°rain 26%thunder 24%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
2. SunSep 2793°69°NWS grid 92° / 69°rain 36%thunder 24%0.03 inwind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
3. MonSep 2891°71°NWS grid 92° / 72°rain 13%wind 5 mph · gusts 12 mph
4. TueSep 2994°74°NWS grid 93° / 73°rain 33%thunder 10%wind 9 mph · gusts 20 mph
5. WedSep 3088°71°NWS grid 86° / 71°rain 68%thunder 22%2.21 inwind 12 mph · gusts 23 mph
6. ThuOct 182°66°NWS grid 82° / 66°rain 78%thunder 24%1.90 inwind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
7. FriOct 280°64°NWS grid 80° / 64°rain 57%thunder 28%1.48 inwind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
8. SatOct 382°64°NWS grid 83° / 68°rain 38%thunder 16%0.68 inwind 5 mph · gusts 12 mph
9. SunOct 482°60°Beyond the NWS gridrain 26%thunder 10%0.11 inwind 7 mph · gusts 15 mph
10. MonOct 581°59°Beyond the NWS gridrain 11%wind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
11. TueOct 684°60°Beyond the NWS gridrain 10%0.06 inwind 3 mph · gusts 9 mph
12. WedOct 784°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 5%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sun Oct 11, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

The sun is down, so each rating says which span it is for: tomorrow’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (low cloud limits height (107.51), gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). Next good stretch: Mon 8 AM to 7 PM, 11 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:44 AM to sunrise 7:14 AM, and sunset 7:14 PM to 7:44 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Sat 10 PM to Sun 12 AM 2 hours, every hour within the rules
• Sun 1 PM to 3 PM 2 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
• Mon 9 AM to Tue 10 AM 25 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
• Tue 6 PM to 9 PM 3 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Saturday, rated best.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. Tonight69° · 50% · SE 5 mph

   A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

2. Sunday92° · 58% · S 5 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 7am and 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

3. Sunday Night69° · 33% · 0 mph

   A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southeast wind around 0 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

4. Monday92° · 33% · SE 0–5 mph

   A chance of rain showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Southeast wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

5. Monday Night72° · 19% · SE 5 mph

   A slight chance of rain showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

6. Tuesday93° · 11% · S 5–10 mph

   Partly sunny, with a high near 93. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

7. Tuesday Night73° · 34% · SE 5–10 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

8. Wednesday86° · 56% · S 10 mph

   Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

9. Wednesday Night71° · 67% · S 5–10 mph

   Rain showers likely before 7pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

10. Thursday82° · 70% · S 5–10 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

11. Thursday Night66° · 69% · SE 5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

12. Friday80° · 55% · S 5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

13. Friday Night64° · 49% · NE 0–5 mph

    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Northeast wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

14. Saturday83° · 32% · NE 0–5 mph

    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Northeast wind 0 to 5 mph.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS44 KTSA 262202
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
502 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-272215-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
502 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing Northeast Oklahoma...Elsewhere Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread across
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas this evening. The
greater thunderstorm potential is expected over northeast Oklahoma
into this evening. Additional showers and storms are forecast
overnight tonight into Sunday across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as a disturbance slides southeast into the 
region. Brief heavy downpours and locally gusty winds are 
possible. Severe weather is not expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy 
     Rain Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early Sunday with
decreasing coverage into the afternoon. Mostly dry weather is
expected Monday before the weather pattern becomes more unsettled
for Tuesday through Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
begin to increase on Tuesday with high rain chances Wednesday
through Thursday. Areas of heavy rainfall totals are possible mid to 
late week. A window of severe weather potential may also develop
with specific details becoming more defined in later forecasts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around March 31 and the first fall freeze around November 3: a growing season of about 216 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 20; one spring in ten still has one after April 18.

Climate of 34.98, -95.72: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.