Current weather · Sep 29, 2:01 PM EDT

34.5290, -83.3760

82°

SunnyFeels like 81° · Humidity 39%NWS forecast for this hour; no recent station reportForecast by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC · grid 30,25
High
84°
Low
54°
Rain today
0%
Sunrise
7:27 AM
Sunset
7:20 PM

Hour by hour

NWS forecast grid

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

Every hour as a table48 hours
TimeWeatherTemperatureFeels likeDew pointHumidityChanceAmountSnowDirWindGustSky coverThunderPressureVisibilityCeiling
Tue 2 PM82°81°54°39%0%ESE2 mph6 mph4%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 3 PM83°82°54°37%0%ESE2 mph5 mph2%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 4 PM84°82°53°35%0%ESE2 mph5 mph1%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 5 PM83°82°53°36%0%ESE2 mph5 mph2%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 6 PM81°81°54°39%0%SE1 mph5 mph2%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 7 PM77°77°54°44%0%ESE1 mph3 mph1%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 8 PM71°71°54°56%0%E0 mph3 mph1%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 9 PM69°69°55°62%0%NE1 mph3 mph2%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 10 PM67°67°56°68%0%N1 mph5 mph3%0.01 inHg9 mi
Tue 11 PM66°66°57°71%0%N2 mph5 mph2%0.01 inHg9 mi
Wed 12 AM65°65°56°72%0%N2 mph5 mph5%0.01 inHg9 mi
Wed 1 AM64°64°56°75%0%N2 mph5 mph5%0.01 inHg9 mi
Wed 2 AM63°63°56°79%0%N2 mph6 mph4%0.01 inHg10 mi
Wed 3 AM62°62°56°82%0%N2 mph6 mph5%0.01 inHg10 mi
Wed 4 AM61°61°56°84%0%N2 mph6 mph6%0.01 inHg10 mi
Wed 5 AM61°61°54°80%0%N2 mph6 mph7%0.01 inHg10 mi
Wed 6 AM60°60°54°81%0%N2 mph6 mph6%0.01 inHg10 mi
Wed 7 AM60°60°54°82%0%N3 mph6 mph8%0.01 inHg10 mi
Wed 8 AM60°60°55°83%0%N3 mph6 mph5%0.01 inHg10 mi
Wed 9 AM64°64°56°75%0%NNE3 mph7 mph0%0.01 inHg—
Wed 10 AM71°71°58°63%0%ENE3 mph7 mph0%0.01 inHg—
Wed 11 AM76°76°59°56%0%E5 mph8 mph0%0.01 inHg—
Wed 12 PM79°79°58°50%0%E5 mph8 mph4%0.01 inHg—
Wed 1 PM82°82°58°44%0%ESE5 mph8 mph6%0.01 inHg—
Wed 2 PM84°83°57°40%0%SE5 mph8 mph11%0.01 inHg—
Wed 3 PM85°84°57°38%0%SE5 mph8 mph22%0.01 inHg—
Wed 4 PM86°85°57°37%0%SE3 mph8 mph15%0.01 inHg—
Wed 5 PM85°84°56°37%0%SE3 mph8 mph11%0.01 inHg—
Wed 6 PM84°83°57°40%0%ESE2 mph7 mph14%0.01 inHg—
Wed 7 PM80°80°57°46%0%E2 mph6 mph21%0.01 inHg—
Wed 8 PM74°74°58°58%0%ENE2 mph5 mph13%0.01 inHg—
Wed 9 PM71°71°58°64%0%NE2 mph6 mph18%0.01 inHg—
Wed 10 PM70°70°59°70%0%NE2 mph6 mph13%0.01 inHg—
Wed 11 PM68°68°59°72%0%NE2 mph6 mph7%0.01 inHg—
Thu 12 AM67°67°59°74%0%NE2 mph5 mph8%0.01 inHg—
Thu 1 AM66°66°58°76%0%NE2 mph5 mph10%0.01 inHg—
Thu 2 AM65°65°58°78%0%NNE1 mph5 mph11%0.01 inHg—
Thu 3 AM64°64°57°79%0%NNE1 mph5 mph9%0.01 inHg—
Thu 4 AM63°63°57°80%0%NNE1 mph5 mph8%0.01 inHg—
Thu 5 AM62°63°56°80%0%NNE1 mph5 mph6%0.01 inHg—
Thu 6 AM61°61°56°82%0%NNE1 mph5 mph6%0.01 inHg—
Thu 7 AM61°61°56°84%0%NNE2 mph5 mph6%0.01 inHg—
Thu 8 AM62°62°57°82%1%NNE2 mph5 mph6%0.01 inHg—
Thu 9 AM66°66°59°77%2%NE2 mph5 mph5%0.01 inHg—
Thu 10 AM72°72°61°70%2%E2 mph5 mph4%0.01 inHg—
Thu 11 AM77°77°63°63%3%ESE2 mph5 mph3%0.01 inHg—
Thu 12 PM80°82°64°57%3%ESE3 mph7 mph7%0.01 inHg—
Thu 1 PM83°84°64°52%3%SE5 mph8 mph12%0.01 inHg—

The next 16 days

NWS grid published Sep 29, 6:14 AM EDT to day 8, the National Blend of Models to day 11, the mean of GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AI to day 16
  1. TodaySep 2984°54°Sunny0%wind 5 mph
  2. WedSep 3086°61°Sunny0%wind 5 mph
  3. ThuOct 187°66°Sunny5%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
  4. FriOct 288°68°Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Light Rain30%0.02 inwind 5 mph
  5. SatOct 383°67°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely73%0.84 inwind 3 mph · gusts 9 mph
  6. SunOct 476°64°Rain Showers Likely74%1.28 inwind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
  7. MonOct 574°56°Chance Rain Showers53%0.93 inwind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
  8. TueOct 669°54°28%0.20 inwind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
  9. WedOct 770°57°National Blend29%0.53 inwind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
  10. ThuOct 874°58°National Blend22%0.36 inwind 6 mph · gusts 14 mph
  11. FriOct 977°57°National Blend14%0.01 inwind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
  12. SatOct 10~74°52°Model mean
  13. SunOct 11~72°52°Model mean
  14. MonOct 12~69°51°Model mean
  15. TueOct 13~67°49°Model mean
  16. WedOct 14~75°49°Model mean

Right now

NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow
  • Feels like81°
  • WindESE 2 mphgusts 6 mph
  • Radar over this pointno reading
  • Humidity39%
  • Dew point54°
  • Pressure0.01 inHg
  • UV index—
  • Air quality—
  • Visibility9 mi
  • Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
  • Moonrise8:57 PMMoonset 10:40 AM
  • Moon phaseWaning gibbous90% lit

The National Blend of Models

NOAA NBM v5.0 · run of Sep 29, 8:00 AM EDT

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

  1. TodaySep 2984°63°NWS grid 84° / 54°rain 0%wind 3 mph
  2. WedSep 3087°64°NWS grid 86° / 61°rain 0%wind 5 mph
  3. ThuOct 188°68°NWS grid 87° / 66°rain 4%wind 5 mph
  4. FriOct 289°70°NWS grid 88° / 68°rain 41%0.01 inwind 5 mph
  5. SatOct 385°68°NWS grid 83° / 67°rain 78%thunder 28%1.47 inwind 5 mph
  6. SunOct 477°65°NWS grid 76° / 64°rain 76%thunder 24%1.34 inwind 6 mph · gusts 13 mph
  7. MonOct 574°59°NWS grid 74° / 56°rain 46%0.63 inwind 8 mph · gusts 15 mph
  8. TueOct 669°56°NWS grid 69° / 54°rain 27%0.58 inwind 13 mph · gusts 23 mph
  9. WedOct 770°57°Beyond the NWS gridrain 29%0.53 inwind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
  10. ThuOct 874°58°Beyond the NWS gridrain 22%0.36 inwind 6 mph · gusts 14 mph
  11. FriOct 977°57°Beyond the NWS gridrain 14%0.01 inwind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
50°73°95°WedThuFriSatSunMonTue

BlendNWS gridChance of rain, hourly

The models, side by side

HRRR Sep 29, 8:00 AM EDT · GFS Sep 29, 8:00 AM EDT · GEFS Sep 29, 2:00 AM EDT · ECMWF Sep 28, 8:00 PM EDT · ECMWF AI Sep 28, 8:00 PM EDT

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

50°73°95°WedThuFriSatSunMonTue

DayNWS gridHRRRGFSGEFSECMWFECMWF AI
Today Sep 2984° 54°85° 57°84° 55°84° 55°83° 61°~82° 57°
Wed Sep 3086° 61°88° 62°85° 58°85° 59°85° 63°~83° 59°
Thu Oct 187° 66°70° 63°86° 62°85° 61°86° 64°~83° 62°
Fri Oct 288° 68°0.02 in—86° 66°0.06 in85° 64°0.06 in88° 68°~84° 67°0.20 in
Sat Oct 383° 67°0.84 in—69° 66°1.79 in82° 67°0.31 in89° 70°0.44 in~75° 71°1.03 in
Sun Oct 476° 64°1.28 in—67° 61°1.94 in70° 64°0.84 in70° 66°1.78 in~71° 69°0.96 in
Mon Oct 574° 56°0.93 in—73° 60°72° 63°0.69 in~78° 64°~78° 66°0.02 in
Tue Oct 669° 54°0.20 in—60° 53°64° 57°0.46 in~66° 58°~69° 59°
Wed Oct 7——58° 49°0.20 in64° 53°0.25 in~65° 50°~66° 50°
Thu Oct 8——68° 52°0.07 in69° 55°0.20 in~69° 51°~66° 52°0.33 in
Fri Oct 9——~76° 56°~58° 58°0.03 in~65° 58°~74° 57°0.02 in
Sat Oct 10——~71° 55°—~77° 53°~74° 49°
Sun Oct 11——~78° 54°—~61° 53°~77° 50°
Mon Oct 12——~65° 49°—~69° 49°~73° 55°
Tue Oct 13——~64° 42°—~72° 56°~65° 47°
Wed Oct 14——~75° 49°———

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

ECMWF ensemble meteogram for this place: box plots of cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and temperature from the 51 ensemble members for ten days.
Rendered by ECMWF from its 51-member ensemble, in metric units: each box spans the middle half of the members, the whiskers the rest, the line the control run. A forecast, not an observation. © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

The next 90 days

NOAA GHCN normals and records at Toccoa (TOC) · Climate Prediction Center outlooks

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Wed Oct 14, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature lean33%warmer 40% · Oct 202633% chance above normal · Oct to Dec0°20°40°60°80°100°TodayOct 1Nov 1Dec 1

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

Week ofNormalWarmest on recordColdest on recordTemperature leanPrecipitation lean
Sep 2977° / 55°99° (2019)30° (1974)40% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 674° / 56°95° (1951)30° (1906)near normal most likely · days 8 to 1440% chance above normal · days 8 to 14
Oct 1373° / 51°90° (2017)30° (1978)40% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 2072° / 48°89° (2016)25° (1917)40% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Oct 2769° / 47°88° (1950)25° (1913)40% chance above normal · Oct 2026equal chances · Oct 2026
Nov 366° / 45°86° (1974)18° (1954)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 1063° / 41°89° (2003)15° (1969)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 1762° / 41°81° (1958)15° (1937)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Nov 2461° / 38°80° (1913)9° (1950)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 160° / 38°80° (1998)9° (1937)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 856° / 36°78° (1943)1° (1962)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 1556° / 35°79° (1924)8° (1951)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec
Dec 2254° / 34°80° (1955)4° (1983)33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec

Health and activities

Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollen

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Health

  • Arthritisnext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Sinus pressurenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Common coldtodayLowmild
  • FlutodayLowmild
  • Migrainenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
  • Heat stresstodayLowmild
  • SunburntodayLowweak sun
  • Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
  • SleepingtonightIdealcool, quiet night

Outdoors

  • RunningtodayGoodhot
  • HikingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • BikingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • GolftodayIdealfine conditions
  • FishingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Boating and paddlingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Beach and pooltodayIdealfine conditions
  • CampingtonightIdealfine conditions
  • StargazingtonightGoodbright moon

Travel

  • Air travelnext 24 hIdealclear skies
  • Drivingnext 24 hIdealclear roads

Home and garden

  • Lawn mowingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • GardeningtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Outdoor entertainingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Drying laundry outsidetodayIdealfine conditions
  • Painting and outdoor projectstodayIdealfine conditions
  • FrosttonightLowmild

Pests

  • MosquitoestodayHighwarm
  • TickstodayModeratewarm
  • Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
  • Outdoor peststodayHighwarm

Stargazing

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moon

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated fair.

Night ofRatingDarkClear hoursClear and moonlessMoon litTransparency (est.)DewStrongest wind
TuesdayFair8:44 PM to 6:04 AM9 of 9None87%Fair2 mph
WednesdayFair8:42 PM to 6:05 AM9 of 91 h from 9:00 PM80%Fair2 mph
ThursdayFair8:41 PM to 6:05 AM4 of 92 h from 9:00 PM70%Fair1 mph
FridayPoor8:40 PM to 6:06 AM0 of 9None60%4 h1 mph
SaturdayPoor8:38 PM to 6:07 AM0 of 9None50%8 h2 mph
SundayPoor8:37 PM to 6:08 AM0 of 9None39%9 h3 mph
MondayPoor8:35 PM to 6:08 AM0 of 9None29%8 h9 mph

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour and blue hour

Computed from the sun and moon positions
DayBlue hour, morningGolden hour, morningGolden hour, eveningBlue hour, evening
Tue7:02 AM to 7:11 AM7:11 AM to 8:00 AM6:47 PM to 7:36 PM7:36 PM to 7:45 PM
Wed7:02 AM to 7:12 AM7:12 AM to 8:01 AM6:46 PM to 7:34 PM7:34 PM to 7:44 PM
Thu7:03 AM to 7:13 AM7:13 AM to 8:02 AM6:44 PM to 7:33 PM7:33 PM to 7:43 PM
Fri7:04 AM to 7:14 AM7:14 AM to 8:02 AM6:43 PM to 7:31 PM7:31 PM to 7:41 PM
Sat7:05 AM to 7:14 AM7:14 AM to 8:03 AM6:41 PM to 7:30 PM7:30 PM to 7:40 PM
Sun7:05 AM to 7:15 AM7:15 AM to 8:04 AM6:40 PM to 7:29 PM7:29 PM to 7:38 PM
Mon7:06 AM to 7:16 AM7:16 AM to 8:05 AM6:38 PM to 7:27 PM7:27 PM to 7:37 PM
NESWSRSSMRMS
  • SR Sunrise 7:27 AM, 93° E
  • SS Sunset 7:20 PM, 267° W
  • MR Moonrise 8:57 PM, 62° ENE
  • MS Moonset 10:40 AM, 295° WNW
  • Waning gibbous, 90% lit

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

Drone flying

NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107

This hour: good to fly. Next good stretch: Tue 2 PM to 7 PM, 5 hours.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:57 AM to sunrise 7:27 AM, and sunset 7:20 PM to 7:50 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Tue6 PM
Wed12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Thu12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Caution No-fly

HourVerdictWind (mph)400 ft est. (mph)Gust (mph)RainVisibilityCloud allowsTempKpWhy
Tue 2 PMGood2360%9 mi82°nothing against it
Tue 3 PMGood2350%9 mi83°nothing against it
Tue 4 PMGood2350%9 mi84°nothing against it
Tue 5 PMGood2350%9 mi83°nothing against it
Tue 6 PMGood1150%9 mi81°nothing against it
Tue 7 PMCaution1570%9 mi77°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Tue 8 PMCaution0030%9 mi71°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Tue 9 PMCaution1570%9 mi69°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Tue 10 PMCaution1580%9 mi67°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Tue 11 PMCaution29110%9 mi66°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Wed 12 AMCaution29110%9 mi65°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Wed 1 AMCaution29110%9 mi64°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Wed 2 AMCaution29130%10 mi63°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Wed 3 AMCaution29130%10 mi62°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Wed 4 AMCaution29130%10 mi61°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Wed 5 AMCaution29130%10 mi61°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Wed 6 AMCaution29130%10 mi60°night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Wed 7 AMCaution314160%10 mi60°civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Wed 8 AMGood3460%10 mi60°nothing against it
Wed 9 AMGood3480%64°nothing against it
Wed 10 AMGood3480%71°nothing against it
Wed 11 AMGood5590%76°nothing against it
Wed 12 PMGood5590%79°nothing against it
Wed 1 PMGood5590%82°nothing against it

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Spraying and field work

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

  • Wed 9 AM to 4 PM 7 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
  • Thu 12 PM to 7 PM 7 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
  • Fri 12 PM to 4 PM 4 hours, every hour within the rules
Tue6 PM
Wed12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Thu12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Fri12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Marginal No

Field days

DayDaytimeChance of rainRainLowest humidityStrongest windDry days in a rowHay drying
TuesdayDry0%0.00 in35%5 mph4 d
WednesdayDry0%0.00 in37%5 mph3 d
ThursdayDry3%0.00 in44%5 mph2 d
FridayDry20%0.02 in51%5 mph1 d
SaturdayWet73%0.84 in66%3 mph
SundayWet74%1.28 in80%6 mph
MondayWet49%0.93 in71%7 mph
TuesdayShowers possible21%0.20 in57%10 mph

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

Solunar times

Computed from the moon’s position

The best-rated day this week is Tuesday, rated fair.

DayRatingMajor periodsMinor periodsMoonSunrise, sunset
Tue Fair2:24 AM to 4:24 AM2:52 PM to 4:52 PM10:10 AM to 11:10 AM8:27 PM to 9:27 PM 90%7:27 AM, 7:20 PM
Wed Poor3:20 AM to 5:20 AM3:50 PM to 5:50 PM11:22 AM to 12:22 PM9:13 PM to 10:13 PM 83%7:27 AM, 7:19 PM
Thu Fair4:20 AM to 6:20 AM4:52 PM to 6:52 PM12:32 PM to 1:32 PM10:09 PM to 11:09 PM 74%7:28 AM, 7:17 PM
Fri Fair5:23 AM to 7:23 AM5:54 PM to 7:54 PM1:37 PM to 2:37 PM11:13 PM to 12:13 AM 64%7:29 AM, 7:16 PM
Sat Fair6:25 AM to 8:25 AM6:56 PM to 8:56 PM2:33 PM to 3:33 PM 54%7:30 AM, 7:15 PM
Sun Fair7:25 AM to 9:25 AM7:54 PM to 9:54 PM12:22 AM to 1:22 AM3:20 PM to 4:20 PM 43%7:30 AM, 7:13 PM
Mon Fair8:21 AM to 10:21 AM8:48 PM to 10:48 PM1:34 AM to 2:34 AM3:59 PM to 4:59 PM 33%7:31 AM, 7:12 PM

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

In words

NWS forecast periods, as issued
  1. This Afternoon84° · ESE 2 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 84. East southeast wind around 2 mph.

  2. Tonight60° · NE 2 mph

    Clear, with a low around 60. Northeast wind around 2 mph.

  3. Wednesday86° · E 5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 86. East wind around 5 mph.

  4. Wednesday Night61° · NE 2 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Northeast wind around 2 mph.

  5. Thursday87° · 3% · E 1–5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 87. East wind 1 to 5 mph.

  6. Thursday Night66° · 6% · ENE 0–3 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 66.

  7. Friday88° · 17% · SE 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of rain after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

  8. Friday Night68° · 47% · WNW 0–3 mph

    A slight chance of rain before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  9. Saturday83° · 73% · ESE 0–3 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  10. Saturday Night67° · 73% · E 3 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  11. Sunday76° · 74% · S 2–6 mph

    Rain showers likely before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  12. Sunday Night64° · 74% · NW 5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  13. Monday74° · 49% · NE 3–7 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  14. Monday Night56° · 49% · ENE 5–9 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

The forecaster’s discussion

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC · issued Sep 29, 6:31 AM EDT

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

What Has Changed

The aviation discussion was updated for the 12z TAF issuance.

KEY Messages

1. Following a protracted period of clear, dry weather, accompanied by a slow but steady warming trend lasting most of this week, the signal is getting stronger for cold-air damming to develop over the weekend. Clouds and rain are expected to return by Saturday, and a strong cooling trend may be in store by Sunday.

Discussion

Key message 1: Following a protracted period of clear, dry weather, accompanied by a slow but steady warming trend lasting most of this week, the signal is getting stronger for cold-air damming to develop over the weekend. Clouds and rain are expected to return by Saturday, and a strong cooling trend may be in store by Sunday.

With a weakening coastal low now centered over the Nantucket/Cape Cod region and continuing its northeastward march, low-level northwesterly CAA has diminished somewhat across the Carolinas, leaving us in an increasingly stagnant pattern. The most recent upper-air analysis features a broad z500 ridge axis extending from the southern Great Plains, across the Ozarks, and into the Great Lakes, with weak northwesterly flow draped across the Carolinas. Water vapor imagery depicts a dry cyclonic circulation centered over the Appalachians...but think that'll pass with little fanfare tonight, other than perhaps lending an extra twinkle to the stars.

The forecast remains much the same as it has for days; upper ridging is still expected to build across the southeast over the next 24 hours or so, while at the surface broad, ill-defined high pressure will migrate off the Atlantic coast through the middle of the week, opening the Carolinas up to weak moisture return by Thursday and Friday. Some uncertainty remains in how quickly low-level upglide will begin to produce rainfall again...but long-range ensembles continue to trend more and more toward a later onset, with some 75% of the most recent LREF ensemble members now holding rain off until, at the earliest, Friday night. All three of the global deterministic models now hold rain off until early Saturday.

Having said all that, it still looks like a good case for a hybrid cold air damming setup, with incipient high pressure draped across the northeast Friday and Saturday contributing a synoptic component and the onset of rainfall providing a strong diabatic component. Still think, therefore, that a CAD wedge is likely to develop over the weekend. It should be short-lived, however, as guidance remains in excellent agreement (for this timescale) on the arrival of a strong cold front by Monday afternoon, ushering in a cool cP air mass by the end of forecast period. Accordingly, the latest forecast features cloudy skies and a strong cooling trend over the weekend...with highs in the 70s by Sunday and Monday...and lows approaching their coolest so far this fall to start out next week.

Aviation · 12Z Tuesday Through Saturday

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions and mostly clear skies to continue thru the 12z TAF period. Over the past few hrs, mountain valley fog/low stratus has developed again in the usual locations, but it's not expected to impact KAVL. Winds should be light thru the TAF period (generally 5 kts or less). They will continue to favor a N to NE direction, but will be light and VRB to calm at times thru the day/evening.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions should persist thru Thursday. Moisture will begin to increase across the area on Friday, with a chance of showers by Friday afternoon over the mountains and more widespread showers across the area on Saturday. Mountain valley fog/low stratus remains possible each morning.

GSP Watches / Warnings / Advisories

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.

The outlooks beyond

SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this point

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Severe weather

  1. Day 1 · Tue Sep 29No risk area
  2. Day 2 · Wed Sep 30No risk area
  3. Day 3 · Thu Oct 1No risk area
  4. Day 4 · Fri Oct 2No risk area
  5. Day 5 · Sat Oct 3No risk area
  6. Day 6 · Sun Oct 4No risk area
  7. Day 7 · Mon Oct 5No risk area
  8. Day 8 · Tue Oct 6No risk area

Rainfall

  1. Day 1 · Tue Sep 29Under 0.01 in
  2. Day 2 · Wed Sep 30Under 0.01 in
  3. Day 3 · Thu Oct 1Under 0.01 in
  4. Day 4-5 · Oct 2–Oct 3Under 0.01 in
  5. Day 6-7 · Oct 4–Oct 51.25 in

The rainfall forecast on the map, days 1 to 7

Flash flood risk

  1. Day 1 · Tue Sep 29Below marginal
  2. Day 2 · Wed Sep 30Below marginal
  3. Day 3 · Thu Oct 1Below marginal
  4. Day 4 · Fri Oct 2Below marginal
  5. Day 5 · Sat Oct 3Marginal

Six to fourteen days

  1. Days 6–10 · Temperature33% chance above normalOct 4–Oct 8
  2. Days 6–10 · Precipitation60% chance above normalOct 4–Oct 8
  3. Days 8–14 · TemperatureNear normal most likelyOct 6–Oct 12
  4. Days 8–14 · Precipitation40% chance above normalOct 6–Oct 12

Hazards, 3 to 14 days

  1. Oct 3–Oct 4Heavy Rain

Drought

  1. Drought Monitor, map of Sep 22D0 Abnormally dry

Drought in this county: the map, the record since 2000 and the outlook

Frost and climate

NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Toccoa

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around March 23 and the first fall freeze around November 11: a growing season of about 233 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 29; one spring in ten still has one after April 9.

Climate of 34.53, -83.38: normals, records and every month

Everything else on the grid

NWS forecast grid · 31 elements

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

ElementTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
HeatRisk max1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor1 · Minor0 · Little
Wet bulb globe temperature max75°77°80°81°78°73°72°65°
Heat index max82°85°88°90°86°75°74°
Chance of thunder max0%0%2%16%31%19%13%5%
Visibility min9 mi9 mi
Pressure min0.01 inHg0.01 inHg0.01 inHg0.01 inHg0.01 inHg0.01 inHg0.01 inHg0.01 inHg
Mixing height max5,100 ft6,400 ft6,400 ft5,800 ft2,800 ft1,600 ft3,400 ft3,200 ft
Transport wind max7 mph7 mph6 mph7 mph8 mph8 mph8 mph10 mph
Twenty-foot wind max5 mph5 mph5 mph5 mph3 mph6 mph7 mph10 mph
Davis stability index max22222122
Atmospheric dispersion index max2048404528173433
Low visibility risk max655679106
Stability max77776665

Against the record

NOAA GHCN · Toccoa (TOC) · 6.3 mi away

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.

DayForecastNormalRecord highRecord low
Tue Sep 2984° / 54°80° / 59°93° (1941)40° (1942)
Wed Sep 3086° / 61°78° / 57°97° (1904)34° (1967)
Thu Oct 187° / 66°78° / 56°93° (2019)37° (1924)
Fri Oct 288° / 68°77° / 55°93° (1998)35° (1966)
Sat Oct 383° / 67°77° / 56°96° (2019)30° (1974)
Sun Oct 476° / 64°78° / 57°99° (2019)31° (1974)
Mon Oct 574° / 56°78° / 56°96° (1954)36° (1968)
Tue Oct 669° / 54°79° / 57°95° (1951)36° (1974)

Sun and moon

DayCivil twilightSunriseSunsetCivil twilightDaylightMoon
Tue7:02 AM7:27 AM7:20 PM7:45 PM11 h 53 min Waning gibbous · 90% lit
Wed7:02 AM7:27 AM7:19 PM7:44 PM11 h 52 min Waning gibbous · 83% lit
Thu7:03 AM7:28 AM7:17 PM7:43 PM11 h 49 min Waning gibbous · 74% lit
Fri7:04 AM7:29 AM7:16 PM7:41 PM11 h 47 min Waning gibbous · 64% lit
Sat7:05 AM7:30 AM7:15 PM7:40 PM11 h 45 min Last quarter · 54% lit
Sun7:05 AM7:30 AM7:13 PM7:38 PM11 h 43 min Last quarter · 43% lit
Mon7:06 AM7:31 AM7:12 PM7:37 PM11 h 41 min Waning crescent · 33% lit
Tue7:07 AM7:32 AM7:11 PM7:36 PM11 h 39 min Waning crescent · 23% lit

Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).

What is here

Seven days
The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
Hour by hour
Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
Everything else on the grid
The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
The discussion
The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
Beyond the week
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
Against the record
Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
The next 90 days
The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.

Common questions

Where does this forecast come from?

From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.

How far ahead does it go?

The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.

Why is this different from the app on my phone?

Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.

What is a place’s address here?

Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.

What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from