Current weather · Sep 28, 1:46 PM PDT
34.5250, -119.9590
69°
- High
- 69°
- Low
- 55°
- Rain today
- 1%
- Sunrise
- 6:52 AM
- Sunset
- 6:48 PM
Hour by hour
NWS forecast gridScroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.
Every hour as a table48 hours
| Time | Weather | Temperature | Feels like | Dew point | Humidity | Chance | Amount | Snow | Dir | Wind | Gust | Sky cover | Thunder | Pressure | Visibility | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 1 PM | 69° | 69° | 37° | 31% | 0% | WNW | 16 mph | 22 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 2 PM | 67° | 67° | 35° | 30% | 0% | NW | 20 mph | 26 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 3 PM | 67° | 67° | 34° | 29% | 0% | NW | 20 mph | 26 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 4 PM | 66° | 66° | 34° | 30% | 0% | NW | 20 mph | 26 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 5 PM | 64° | 64° | 34° | 33% | 0% | NW | 18 mph | 25 mph | 4% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 6 PM | 61° | 61° | 35° | 37% | 0% | NW | 18 mph | 25 mph | 4% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 7 PM | 59° | 59° | 35° | 41% | 0% | NW | 18 mph | 25 mph | 4% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 8 PM | 58° | 58° | 35° | 42% | 0% | NNW | 24 mph | 32 mph | 4% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 9 PM | 60° | 60° | 36° | 40% | 0% | NNW | 24 mph | 32 mph | 4% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 10 PM | 62° | 62° | 34° | 35% | 0% | NNW | 24 mph | 32 mph | 4% | — | — | |||||
| Mon 11 PM | 63° | 63° | 31° | 30% | 0% | N | 21 mph | 28 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 12 AM | 63° | 63° | 28° | 26% | 0% | N | 21 mph | 28 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 1 AM | 63° | 63° | 28° | 26% | 0% | N | 21 mph | 28 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 2 AM | 63° | 63° | 28° | 26% | 0% | N | 15 mph | 21 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 3 AM | 63° | 63° | 28° | 26% | 0% | N | 15 mph | 21 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 4 AM | 63° | 63° | 28° | 26% | 0% | N | 15 mph | 21 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 5 AM | 62° | 62° | 28° | 27% | 0% | N | 14 mph | 18 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 6 AM | 63° | 63° | 30° | 29% | 0% | N | 14 mph | 18 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 7 AM | 63° | 63° | 32° | 31% | 0% | N | 14 mph | 18 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 8 AM | 66° | 66° | 33° | 29% | 0% | N | 9 mph | 13 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 9 AM | 70° | 70° | 32° | 24% | 0% | N | 9 mph | 13 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 10 AM | 74° | 74° | 34° | 23% | 0% | N | 9 mph | 13 mph | 6% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 11 AM | 78° | 78° | 36° | 22% | 0% | WNW | 13 mph | 17 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 12 PM | 80° | 79° | 37° | 21% | 0% | WNW | 13 mph | 17 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 1 PM | 82° | 80° | 37° | 20% | 0% | WNW | 13 mph | 17 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 2 PM | 81° | 79° | 34° | 18% | 0% | NW | 15 mph | 21 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 3 PM | 81° | 79° | 35° | 19% | 0% | NW | 15 mph | 21 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 4 PM | 79° | 79° | 37° | 22% | 0% | NW | 15 mph | 21 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 5 PM | 75° | 75° | 39° | 27% | 0% | NW | 12 mph | 16 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 6 PM | 71° | 71° | 41° | 34% | 0% | NW | 12 mph | 16 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 7 PM | 68° | 68° | 45° | 43% | 0% | NW | 12 mph | 16 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 8 PM | 67° | 67° | 46° | 47% | 0% | N | 10 mph | 14 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 9 PM | 66° | 66° | 45° | 47% | 0% | N | 10 mph | 14 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 10 PM | 66° | 66° | 42° | 42% | 0% | N | 10 mph | 14 mph | 3% | — | — | |||||
| Tue 11 PM | 67° | 67° | 39° | 36% | 0% | NNE | 8 mph | 10 mph | 9% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 12 AM | 67° | 67° | 34° | 29% | 0% | NNE | 8 mph | 10 mph | 9% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 1 AM | 67° | 67° | 33° | 28% | 0% | NNE | 8 mph | 10 mph | 9% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 2 AM | 67° | 67° | 32° | 27% | 0% | NNE | 8 mph | 10 mph | 9% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 3 AM | 65° | 65° | 30° | 27% | 0% | NNE | 8 mph | 10 mph | 9% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 4 AM | 66° | 66° | 31° | 27% | 0% | NNE | 8 mph | 10 mph | 9% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 5 AM | 65° | 65° | 31° | 28% | 0% | NE | 6 mph | 8 mph | 7% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 6 AM | 65° | 65° | 32° | 29% | 0% | NE | 6 mph | 8 mph | 7% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 7 AM | 64° | 64° | 33° | 31% | 0% | NE | 6 mph | 8 mph | 7% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 8 AM | 69° | 69° | 39° | 33% | 0% | ENE | 5 mph | 6 mph | 7% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 9 AM | 72° | 72° | 44° | 36% | 0% | ENE | 5 mph | 6 mph | 7% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 10 AM | 74° | 74° | 45° | 36% | 0% | ENE | 5 mph | 6 mph | 7% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 11 AM | 76° | 76° | 49° | 38% | 0% | SSW | 3 mph | 5 mph | 2% | — | — | |||||
| Wed 12 PM | 77° | 77° | 51° | 40% | 0% | SSW | 3 mph | 5 mph | 2% | — | — |
The next 16 days
NWS grid published Sep 28, 1:26 PM PDT to day 8, the National Blend of Models to day 11, the mean of GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AI to day 16- TodaySep 2869°55°Sunnywind 24 mph · gusts 32 mph
- TueSep 2982°64°Sunnywind 21 mph · gusts 28 mph
- WedSep 3077°64°Sunnywind 8 mph
- ThuOct 180°68°Sunnywind 5 mph
- FriOct 287°72°Sunnywind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
- SatOct 388°73°Sunnywind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
- SunOct 488°74°Sunnywind 5 mph · gusts 12 mph
- MonOct 588°74°wind 5 mph · gusts 12 mph
- TueOct 686°74°National Blendwind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
- WedOct 786°73°National Blendwind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
- ThuOct 887°72°National Blendwind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
- FriOct 9~93°74°Model mean
- SatOct 10~89°73°Model mean
- SunOct 11~85°72°Model mean
- MonOct 12~84°71°Model mean
- TueOct 13~72°63°Model mean
Right now
NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow- Feels like69°
- WindWNW 16 mphgusts 22 mph
- Radar over this pointno reading
- Humidity31%
- Dew point37°
- Pressure—
- UV index—
- Air quality—
- Visibility—
- Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
- Moonrise7:49 PMMoonset 9:03 AM
- Moon phaseWaning gibbous95% lit
The National Blend of Models
NOAA NBM v5.0 · run of Sep 28, 11:00 AM PDTNOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.
- TodaySep 28—59°NWS grid 69° / 55°wind 21 mph · gusts 30 mph
- TueSep 2983°64°NWS grid 82° / 64°wind 17 mph · gusts 28 mph
- WedSep 3075°64°NWS grid 77° / 64°wind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
- ThuOct 178°69°NWS grid 80° / 68°wind 3 mph
- FriOct 283°72°NWS grid 87° / 72°wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
- SatOct 386°74°NWS grid 88° / 73°wind 6 mph
- SunOct 487°75°NWS grid 88° / 74°wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
- MonOct 587°74°NWS grid 88° / 74°wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
- TueOct 686°74°Beyond the NWS gridwind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
- WedOct 786°73°Beyond the NWS gridwind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
- ThuOct 887°72°Beyond the NWS gridwind 7 mph · gusts 13 mph
BlendNWS gridChance of rain, hourly
The models, side by side
HRRR Sep 28, 5:00 AM PDT · GFS Sep 28, 5:00 AM PDT · GEFS Sep 28, 5:00 AM PDT · ECMWF Sep 28, 5:00 AM PDT · ECMWF AI Sep 28, 5:00 AM PDTEach line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.
| Day | NWS grid | HRRR | GFS | GEFS | ECMWF | ECMWF AI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today Sep 28 | 69° 55° | 69° 54° | 83° 55° | 77° 58° | 78° 53° | ~70° 57° |
| Tue Sep 29 | 82° 64° | 79° 61° | 95° 63° | 83° 66° | 91° 57° | ~76° 66° |
| Wed Sep 30 | 77° 64° | 70° 68° | 84° 64° | 74° 65° | 79° 63° | ~74° 67° |
| Thu Oct 1 | 80° 68° | — | 87° 61° | 74° 64° | 82° 64° | ~74° 66° |
| Fri Oct 2 | 87° 72° | — | 94° 67° | 79° 68° | 85° 68° | ~77° 68° |
| Sat Oct 3 | 88° 73° | — | 97° 72° | 82° 73° | 92° 71° | ~79° 71° |
| Sun Oct 4 | 88° 74° | — | 99° 75° | 83° 74° | ~92° 73° | ~77° 72° |
| Mon Oct 5 | 88° 74° | — | 100° 79° | 85° 75° | ~92° 76° | ~78° 71° |
| Tue Oct 6 | — | — | 99° 79° | 83° 74° | ~92° 77° | ~81° 73° |
| Wed Oct 7 | — | — | 97° 80° | 82° 74°0.02 in | ~96° 76° | ~83° 74° |
| Thu Oct 8 | — | — | ~96° 79° | ~75° 74° | ~98° 72° | ~87° 78° |
| Fri Oct 9 | — | — | ~92° 74°0.05 in | — | ~101° 70° | ~86° 78° |
| Sat Oct 10 | — | — | ~87° 68°0.07 in | — | ~99° 74° | ~82° 76° |
| Sun Oct 11 | — | — | ~80° 67° | — | ~98° 77° | ~78° 73° |
| Mon Oct 12 | — | — | ~82° 68° | — | ~94° 75° | ~76° 70° |
| Tue Oct 13 | — | — | ~72° 63°0.17 in | — | — | ~69° 69° |
A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.
ECMWF ensemble meteogram
The next 90 days
NOAA GHCN normals and records at Santa Ynez (IZA) · Climate Prediction Center outlooksNo forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.
The forecast reaches Tue Oct 13, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.
Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normal
| Week of | Normal | Warmest on record | Coldest on record | Temperature lean | Precipitation lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 | 90° / 50° | 110° (2010) | 37° (1971) | 33% chance above normal · Oct 2026 | equal chances · Oct 2026 |
| Oct 5 | 88° / 48° | 109° (1987) | 30° (2008) | 80% chance above normal · days 6 to 10 | near normal most likely · days 6 to 10 |
| Oct 12 | 86° / 48° | 105° (2020) | 31° (2017) | 33% chance above normal · Oct 2026 | equal chances · Oct 2026 |
| Oct 19 | 84° / 46° | 105° (2017) | 32° (2013) | 33% chance above normal · Oct 2026 | equal chances · Oct 2026 |
| Oct 26 | 80° / 43° | 101° (2017) | 27° (2006) | 33% chance above normal · Oct 2026 | equal chances · Oct 2026 |
| Nov 2 | 79° / 43° | 100° (1997) | 31° (1965) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | 33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec |
| Nov 9 | 74° / 44° | 95° (1956) | 28° (2012) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | 33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec |
| Nov 16 | 76° / 42° | 93° (2019) | 25° (1958) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | 33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec |
| Nov 23 | 73° / 40° | 96° (2017) | 26° (2010) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | 33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec |
| Nov 30 | 70° / 38° | 94° (1958) | 17° (2013) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | 33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec |
| Dec 7 | 68° / 39° | 88° (1958) | 21° (2013) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | 33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec |
| Dec 14 | 67° / 38° | 87° (1980) | 22° (1967) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | 33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec |
| Dec 21 | 66° / 37° | 86° (2020) | 16° (1990) | 40% chance above normal · Oct to Dec | 33% chance above normal · Oct to Dec |
Health and activities
Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollenNone of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.
Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.
Health
- Arthritisnext 24 hLowsteady conditions
- Sinus pressurenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
- Common coldtodayLowmild
- FlutodayLowmild
- Migrainenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
- Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
- Heat stresstodayLowmild
- SunburntodayLowweak sun
- Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
- SleepingtonightIdealcool, quiet night
Outdoors
- RunningtodayIdealfine conditions
- HikingtodayIdealfine conditions
- BikingtodayVery goodwind
- GolftodayIdealfine conditions
- FishingtodayIdealfine conditions
- Boating and paddlingtodayGoodwind
- Beach and pooltodayVery goodcool
- CampingtonightIdealfine conditions
- StargazingtonightGoodbright moon
Travel
- Air travelnext 24 hIdealclear skies
- Drivingnext 24 hIdealclear roads
Home and garden
- Lawn mowingtodayIdealfine conditions
- GardeningtodayIdealfine conditions
- Outdoor entertainingtodayVery goodwind
- Drying laundry outsidetodayIdealfine conditions
- Painting and outdoor projectstodayIdealfine conditions
- FrosttonightLowmild
Pests
- MosquitoestodayModeratewarm
- TickstodayHighwarm
- Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
- Outdoor peststodayModeratewarm
Stargazing
Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moonTonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated fair.
| Night of | Rating | Dark | Clear hours | Clear and moonless | Moon lit | Transparency (est.) | Dew | Strongest wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Fair | 8:11 PM to 5:29 AM | 9 of 9 | None | 93% | Good | 24 mph | |
| Tuesday | Fair | 8:10 PM to 5:30 AM | 10 of 10 | None | 87% | Good | 10 mph | |
| Wednesday | Fair | 8:09 PM to 5:31 AM | 10 of 10 | 1 h from 8:00 PM | 79% | Good | 3 mph | |
| Thursday | Fair | 8:07 PM to 5:32 AM | 9 of 10 | 2 h from 8:00 PM | 69% | Good | 1 mph | |
| Friday | Good | 8:06 PM to 5:33 AM | 10 of 10 | 3 h from 8:00 PM | 59% | Good | 3 mph | |
| Saturday | Excellent | 8:04 PM to 5:33 AM | 10 of 10 | 4 h from 8:00 PM | 49% | Good | 3 mph | |
| Sunday | Excellent | 8:03 PM to 5:34 AM | 10 of 10 | 6 h from 8:00 PM | 38% | Good | 3 mph |
Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.
Golden hour and blue hour
Computed from the sun and moon positions| Day | Blue hour, morning | Golden hour, morning | Golden hour, evening | Blue hour, evening |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 6:27 AM to 6:37 AM | 6:37 AM to 7:26 AM | 6:15 PM to 7:03 PM | 7:03 PM to 7:13 PM |
| Tue | 6:28 AM to 6:38 AM | 6:38 AM to 7:26 AM | 6:13 PM to 7:02 PM | 7:02 PM to 7:12 PM |
| Wed | 6:29 AM to 6:38 AM | 6:38 AM to 7:27 AM | 6:12 PM to 7:00 PM | 7:00 PM to 7:10 PM |
| Thu | 6:30 AM to 6:39 AM | 6:39 AM to 7:28 AM | 6:10 PM to 6:59 PM | 6:59 PM to 7:09 PM |
| Fri | 6:30 AM to 6:40 AM | 6:40 AM to 7:29 AM | 6:09 PM to 6:58 PM | 6:58 PM to 7:07 PM |
| Sat | 6:31 AM to 6:41 AM | 6:41 AM to 7:30 AM | 6:07 PM to 6:56 PM | 6:56 PM to 7:06 PM |
| Sun | 6:32 AM to 6:41 AM | 6:41 AM to 7:30 AM | 6:06 PM to 6:55 PM | 6:55 PM to 7:05 PM |
- SR Sunrise 6:52 AM, 92° E
- SS Sunset 6:48 PM, 268° W
- MR Moonrise 7:49 PM, 68° ENE
- MS Moonset 9:03 AM, 289° WNW
- Waning gibbous, 95% lit
Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.
Drone flying
NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107This hour: no-fly (gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit). Next good stretch: Tue 8 AM to 11 AM, 3 hours.
Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:22 AM to sunrise 6:52 AM, and sunset 6:48 PM to 7:18 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.
| Mon | 6 PM | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Wed | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM |
Good Caution No-fly
| Hour | Verdict | Wind (mph) | 400 ft est. (mph) | Gust (mph) | Rain | Visibility | Cloud allows | Temp | Kp | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 1 PM | No-fly | 16 | 23 | 29 | 0% | 69° | gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit | |||
| Mon 2 PM | No-fly | 20 | 28 | 35 | 0% | 67° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit | |||
| Mon 3 PM | No-fly | 20 | 28 | 35 | 0% | 67° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit | |||
| Mon 4 PM | No-fly | 20 | 28 | 35 | 0% | 66° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit | |||
| Mon 5 PM | No-fly | 18 | 27 | 34 | 0% | 64° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit | |||
| Mon 6 PM | No-fly | 18 | 27 | 34 | 0% | 61° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, civil twilight: lighting required (107.29) | |||
| Mon 7 PM | No-fly | 18 | 27 | 34 | 0% | 59° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Mon 8 PM | No-fly | 24 | 35 | 43 | 0% | 58° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Mon 9 PM | No-fly | 24 | 35 | 43 | 0% | 60° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Mon 10 PM | No-fly | 24 | 35 | 43 | 0% | 62° | ground wind near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Mon 11 PM | No-fly | 21 | 30 | 37 | 0% | 63° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Tue 12 AM | No-fly | 21 | 30 | 37 | 0% | 63° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Tue 1 AM | No-fly | 21 | 30 | 37 | 0% | 63° | wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, ground wind near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Tue 2 AM | No-fly | 15 | 22 | 28 | 0% | 63° | gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Tue 3 AM | No-fly | 15 | 22 | 28 | 0% | 63° | gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Tue 4 AM | No-fly | 15 | 22 | 28 | 0% | 63° | gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Tue 5 AM | No-fly | 14 | 20 | 25 | 0% | 62° | gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Tue 6 AM | No-fly | 14 | 20 | 25 | 0% | 63° | gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29) | |||
| Tue 7 AM | No-fly | 14 | 20 | 25 | 0% | 63° | gusts near or over your limit, wind at 400 ft near or over your limit | |||
| Tue 8 AM | Good | 9 | 12 | 15 | 0% | 66° | nothing against it | |||
| Tue 9 AM | Good | 9 | 12 | 15 | 0% | 70° | nothing against it | |||
| Tue 10 AM | Good | 9 | 11 | 14 | 0% | 74° | nothing against it | |||
| Tue 11 AM | Caution | 13 | 16 | 21 | 0% | 78° | gusts near or over your limit | |||
| Tue 12 PM | Caution | 13 | 16 | 21 | 0% | 80° | gusts near or over your limit |
Flight restrictions nearby
Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.
Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.
Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.
Spraying and field work
Worked out from the NWS hourly forecastHours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.
Spraying windows
- Tue 11 PM to Wed 8 PM 21 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
- Thu 2 AM to 8 AM 6 hours, every hour within the rules
- Thu 5 PM to 8 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
- Fri 4 PM to 8 PM 4 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
- Fri 11 PM to Sat 2 AM 3 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
- Sat 5 PM to 8 PM 3 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
- Sat 11 PM to Sun 2 AM 3 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
- Sun 5 PM to 8 PM 3 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
| Mon | 6 PM | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Wed | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Thu | 12 AM | 6 AM | 12 PM | 6 PM |
Good Marginal No
Field days
| Day | Daytime | Chance of rain | Rain | Lowest humidity | Strongest wind | Dry days in a row | Hay drying |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Dry | 1% | 0.00 in | 29% | 20 mph | 8 d | Good |
| Tuesday | Dry | 0% | 0.00 in | 18% | 15 mph | 7 d | Good |
| Wednesday | Dry | 0% | 0.00 in | 33% | 5 mph | 6 d | |
| Thursday | Dry | 0% | 0.00 in | 47% | 5 mph | 5 d | |
| Friday | Dry | 0% | 0.00 in | 36% | 5 mph | 4 d | |
| Saturday | Dry | 0% | 0.00 in | 34% | 5 mph | 3 d | |
| Sunday | Dry | 0% | 0.00 in | 35% | 5 mph | 2 d | |
| Monday | Dry | 0% | 0.00 in | 35% | 5 mph | 1 d |
Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.
Solunar times
Computed from the moon’s positionThe best-rated day this week is Monday, rated good.
| Day | Rating | Major periods | Minor periods | Moon | Sunrise, sunset |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | Good | 1:04 AM to 3:04 AM1:29 PM to 3:29 PM | 8:33 AM to 9:33 AM7:19 PM to 8:19 PM | 95% | 6:52 AM, 6:48 PM |
| Tue | Fair | 1:56 AM to 3:56 AM2:24 PM to 4:24 PM | 9:44 AM to 10:44 AM7:58 PM to 8:58 PM | 89% | 6:53 AM, 6:46 PM |
| Wed | Poor | 2:53 AM to 4:53 AM3:22 PM to 5:22 PM | 10:56 AM to 11:56 AM8:45 PM to 9:45 PM | 82% | 6:54 AM, 6:45 PM |
| Thu | Fair | 3:53 AM to 5:53 AM4:24 PM to 6:24 PM | 12:06 PM to 1:06 PM9:41 PM to 10:41 PM | 73% | 6:55 AM, 6:44 PM |
| Fri | Fair | 4:56 AM to 6:56 AM5:27 PM to 7:27 PM | 1:10 PM to 2:10 PM10:46 PM to 11:46 PM | 63% | 6:55 AM, 6:42 PM |
| Sat | Fair | 5:58 AM to 7:58 AM6:28 PM to 8:28 PM | 2:05 PM to 3:05 PM | 52% | 6:56 AM, 6:41 PM |
| Sun | Fair | 6:58 AM to 8:58 AM7:26 PM to 9:26 PM | 11:56 PM to 12:56 AM2:51 PM to 3:51 PM | 42% | 6:57 AM, 6:40 PM |
Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index
Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.
In words
NWS forecast periods, as issuedThis Afternoon69° · WNW 15–20 mph
Sunny, with a high near 69. West northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight58° · NNW 15–25 mph
Clear, with a low around 58. North northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Tuesday82° · NNW 10–15 mph
Sunny, with a high near 82. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday Night64° · N 5–10 mph
Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday77° · NNW 5 mph
Sunny, with a high near 77. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night64° · NNE 0–5 mph
Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Thursday80° · SSW 0–5 mph
Sunny, with a high near 80.
Thursday Night68° · NNW 0–5 mph
Mostly clear, with a low around 68.
Friday87° · WSW 0–5 mph
Sunny, with a high near 87.
Friday Night72° · N 0–5 mph
Mostly clear, with a low around 72.
Saturday88° · SW 0–5 mph
Sunny, with a high near 88.
Saturday Night73° · N 0–5 mph
Clear, with a low around 73.
Sunday88° · SW 0–5 mph
Sunny, with a high near 88.
Sunday Night74° · N 0–5 mph
Clear, with a low around 74.
The forecaster’s discussion
NWS Los Angeles, CA · issued Sep 28, 1:19 PM PDTWritten by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.
Synopsis
27/1109 PM.
Beach impacts from Tropical Cyclones well south of the region are expected through Tuesday in the form of high surf, beach erosion, and possible coastal flooding. A significant warming trend is expected to begin Tuesday with increasing heat concerns through at least the following weekend.
Short Term (Tdy-thu)
28/946 AM.
***UPDATE***
Temperatures are running several degrees cooler today, especially in the mountains, but even 5-10 degrees cooler in the valleys and coastal areas. This is mostly due to the upper level trough moving through California that has at least temporarily pushed the moisture from Odalys to the southeast and replaced it with a cooler and drier air mass. The respite will be short lived as the trough exits to the east Tuesday and will quickly be replaced by a high pressure ridge and some light to locally moderate offshore flow for our first little Santa Ana event of the season. Not expecting much wind at lower elevations but the mountains will get some gusts into the 30s and 40s. The easterly flow will result in further lowering of the humidities, especially inland. However, temperatures will be warming several degrees Tuesday. And even more significant warming is expected later in the week as the high pressure builds.
***From Previous Discussion***
The primary forecast concerns for the short term are the building surf along south facing beaches and potential for moderate coastal flooding as well as very dangerous swimming conditions. Please see the Beaches discussion below for more details.
A 566 dam upper low embedded at the base of a pos tilt trof will move over the state from the NW to SE today. Hgts will drop about 10 dam during the day today. There is only weak onshore flow to the east and actual offshore flow from the north these two things combined with a weak marine inversion will inhibit low cloud formation this morning with only patchy low clouds at some LA coastal sites as well as the Central Coast. The falling hgts will bring 4 to 8 degrees of cooling today to all areas save for the Central Coast which will not see much change from Sunday's cool down.
The upper low will be to the east of the area on Tuesday and the wrap around flow from the low will bring northerly flow aloft to the area. At the sfc building high pressure to the NNE will bring offshore flow to the area esp from the north. This offshore flow will prevent any morning low clouds. It will also bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to the area and most of the csts/vlys will warm into the 80s with lower 90s in the warmest vlys. For the first time in a while there will be a widespread offshore wind event with north to northeast winds affecting a large portion of the area. The strongest winds will be through the i-5 corridor and the area a few miles either side of the VTA/LA county line in the morning. There is a 40 percent chc that the gusts will reach low end advisory criteria.
An east pac ridge will approach the state on Wednesday and hgts will rise to 588 dam. There will be another round of offshore winds in the morning but without much upper support they will be weaker than Tuesday's winds. Oddly an eddy is supposed to form as well driven by strong NW winds across the outer waters. Right now am betting that the offshore flow will keep the low clouds away but if the eddy is strong enough there could be some low clouds in the morning with the best odds across southern LA county. Since the offshore is weaker cst/vly temps will cool a couple of degrees while the mtns and far interior will see another 3 to 6 degrees of warming as the upper high builds in overhead.
Long Term (Fri-mon)
28/220 AM.
High pressure will remain draped over Srn CA through the Thu-Sun xtnd period. Hgts will be around 590 dam through the period. The big question will revolve around the sfc gradients. There will likely be offshore flow from both the N and E in the morning, but there is quite a bit of disagreement on how strong the offshore push will be. Similarly in the afternoon there is disagreement with the EC showing weak offshore flow continuing in the afternoon while the GFS shows weak onshore flow. In the past the actual values have mostly come in in between the two.
Regardless of the exact magnitude of the offshore push the forecast will very likely be one of minimal or zero morning clouds and very warm temperatures. Max temps will mostly be in the 80s across the coasts and in the 90s in the vlys. There is a 40 percent chc that the warmest vly temps will reach triple digits Friday or Saturday. Heat advisories are almost a certainty for many areas and warnings may be necessary as well. Stay tuned to the NWS for the latest on this developing heat risk.
Of note: the AI enhanced version of the EC shows above to well above normal temps continuing into the middle of next month.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking the newly formed Tropical Storm Rachel in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The latest NHC track brings a Hurricane nearing our swell window by Friday. If this west to northwest track holds, it could enter our swell window by early next week. The potential surf or coastal flood impacts would probably occur after October 4th.
Aviation
28/2008Z.
At 20Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KWJF, KPMD, KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA.
Fairly high confidence elsewhere with a 10-20 of brief IFR or lower cigs/vsbys focused between
KLAX...Fair confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chance BKN008 conds 08Z-16Z. High confidence in no significant east wind component.
KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.
Marine
28/1258 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and steep seas affecting the outer waters through late least Tuesday night. Local Gale Force gusts will be possible at times, especially this afternoon and evening across the outer waters south of Point Conception. There is a 10-20% chance for Gale Warning conditions during that time period. Nearshore along the Central coast will see SCA winds and steep seas each afternoon and evening through Tuesday.
For the nearshore waters south of Point Conception, SCA winds are expected across the entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel and portions of the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties on today, with moderate chances Tuesday.
Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys (SSW) and Polo (SSE) will continue to affect the region through Tuesday. These swells will create larger waves and surf nearshore, which could impact some south exposed harbor entrances.
Conditions are likely to improve to below SCA levels Wednesday into next weekend, except for occasional northwest SCA winds near Point Conception in the afternoon/evening hours.
Beaches
28/103 PM.
Southerly swells from Tropical Storm Odalys and Hurricane Polo will affect the waters through the middle of this coming week, with Hurricane Polo likely sending the more impactful swell from the SSE (160-170 degrees) affecting our coastline Monday and Tuesday. This swell timing will line up with very high tides Monday and Tuesday in the late morning hours. Some south- facing shores are more vulnerable because of the lingering erosion effects from Hurricane Marie earlier this month.
Surf heights across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties are likely to peak around 4-7 feet Monday and Tuesday, while the Santa Barbara south coast should see surf in the 3-5 foot range. High tides build and peak Monday and Tuesday, likely reaching around 7 feet (MLLW) in the late morning hours - which is higher by almost a foot over astronomical tides due to ongoing effects of El Nino.
While this swell is slightly smaller than the swell from Marie, there is still significant concern of Coastal Flooding over vulnerable south-facing beaches. The areas of most concern include Avalon, Long Beach, Malibu, and to a lesser extent Santa Barbara. The reasonable worst-case scenario is for impacts similar to those from Hurricane Marie, but the most likely outcome is for impacts to be a step less. The one exception being Avalon on Catalina Island, as the swells from Hurricane Polo will be more from a southeasterly direction than with Marie, which they are more exposed to. The same goes for Santa Barbara Harbor where the risk is less but still present.
South-facing beaches should plan for shallow flooding of seawater over low lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads as well as potential for significant beach erosion. Very localized damage to structures is possible in the most vulnerable areas. Minor tidal overflow may affect west facing beaches due to very high tides.
Beach Hazards Statements (BHS) are in effect for Santa Barbara south coast through Wednesday. Then a Coastal Flood Advisory and High Surf Advisory are in effect for LA and Ventura through Tuesday afternoon. A BHS may need to be issued for the LA and Ventura coasts for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday (lining up with Santa Barbara) due to the very high tides.
Active East Pacific Hurricane Season looks to continue with additional southerly swells and surf/coastal flooding impacts possible into next week.
LOX Watches / Warnings / Advisories
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
The outlooks beyond
SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this pointThe national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.
Severe weather
- Day 1 · Mon Sep 28No risk area
- Day 2 · Tue Sep 29No risk area
- Day 3 · Wed Sep 30No risk area
- Day 4 · Thu Oct 1No risk area
- Day 5 · Fri Oct 2No risk area
- Day 6 · Sat Oct 3No risk area
- Day 7 · Sun Oct 4No risk area
- Day 8 · Mon Oct 5No risk area
Rainfall
- Day 1 · Mon Sep 28Under 0.01 in
- Day 2 · Tue Sep 29Under 0.01 in
- Day 3 · Wed Sep 30Under 0.01 in
- Day 4-5 · Oct 1–Oct 2Under 0.01 in
- Day 6-7 · Oct 3–Oct 4Under 0.01 in
Six to fourteen days
- Days 6–10 · Temperature80% chance above normalOct 4–Oct 8
- Days 6–10 · PrecipitationNear normal most likelyOct 4–Oct 8
- Days 8–14 · Temperature80% chance above normalOct 6–Oct 12
- Days 8–14 · PrecipitationNear normal most likelyOct 6–Oct 12
Drought
- Drought MonitorNo drought
Drought in this county: the map, the record since 2000 and the outlook
Frost and climate
NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Cachuma LakeThe last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 11 and the first fall freeze around November 8: a growing season of about 209 days.
One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 14; one spring in ten still has one after May 6.
Everything else on the grid
NWS forecast grid · 31 elementsThe forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.
| Element | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HeatRisk max | 1 · Minor | 1 · Minor | 1 · Minor | 2 · Moderate | 2 · Moderate | 2 · Moderate | 2 · Moderate | 2 · Moderate |
| Wet bulb globe temperature max | 62° | 70° | 71° | 75° | 78° | 78° | 79° | 79° |
| Heat index max | 80° | 77° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 86° | |
| Snow level min | 7,500 ft | 9,200 ft | 10,600 ft | 11,300 ft | 11,400 ft | 11,400 ft | 11,600 ft | 11,600 ft |
| Mixing height max | 7,700 ft | 6,300 ft | 2,700 ft | 2,100 ft | ||||
| Transport wind max | 24 mph | 22 mph | 14 mph | 7 mph |
Against the record
NOAA GHCN · Santa Ynez (IZA) · 8.7 mi awayEach forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.
| Day | Forecast | Normal | Record high | Record low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 28 | 69° / 55° | 91° / 52° | 110° (2010) | 40° (1971) |
| Tue Sep 29 | 82° / 64° | 89° / 51° | 107° (1963) | 40° (1954) |
| Wed Sep 30 | 77° / 64° | 89° / 49° | 104° (1980) | 38° (1954) |
| Thu Oct 1 | 80° / 68° | 90° / 50° | 109° (1980) | 37° (1971) |
| Fri Oct 2 | 87° / 72° | 89° / 50° | 110° (1980) | 37° (2017) |
| Sat Oct 3 | 88° / 73° | 89° / 49° | 109° (2020) | 39° (1973) |
| Sun Oct 4 | 88° / 74° | 85° / 49° | 110° (2024) | 37° (2013) |
| Mon Oct 5 | 88° / 74° | 84° / 49° | 109° (1987) | 38° (1955) |
Sun and moon
| Day | Civil twilight | Sunrise | Sunset | Civil twilight | Daylight | Moon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 6:27 AM | 6:52 AM | 6:48 PM | 7:13 PM | 11 h 56 min | Waning gibbous · 95% lit |
| Tue | 6:28 AM | 6:53 AM | 6:46 PM | 7:12 PM | 11 h 53 min | Waning gibbous · 89% lit |
| Wed | 6:29 AM | 6:54 AM | 6:45 PM | 7:10 PM | 11 h 51 min | Waning gibbous · 82% lit |
| Thu | 6:30 AM | 6:55 AM | 6:44 PM | 7:09 PM | 11 h 49 min | Waning gibbous · 73% lit |
| Fri | 6:30 AM | 6:55 AM | 6:42 PM | 7:07 PM | 11 h 47 min | Waning gibbous · 63% lit |
| Sat | 6:31 AM | 6:56 AM | 6:41 PM | 7:06 PM | 11 h 45 min | Last quarter · 52% lit |
| Sun | 6:32 AM | 6:57 AM | 6:40 PM | 7:05 PM | 11 h 43 min | Last quarter · 42% lit |
| Mon | 6:32 AM | 6:58 AM | 6:38 PM | 7:03 PM | 11 h 40 min | Waning crescent · 31% lit |
Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).
What is here
- Seven days
- The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
- Hour by hour
- Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
- Everything else on the grid
- The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
- The discussion
- The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
- Beyond the week
- The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
- Against the record
- Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
- The next 90 days
- The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.
Common questions
Where does this forecast come from?
From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.
How far ahead does it go?
The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.
Why is this different from the app on my phone?
Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.
What is a place’s address here?
Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.
What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from