34.2250, -95.6250

1. Tue1 PM90°8 mph
2. 2 PM93°8 mph
3. 3 PM93°8 mph
4. 4 PM94°1%8 mph
5. 5 PM93°1%8 mph
6. 6 PM91°1%7 mph
7. 7 PM89°5 mph
8. 8 PM84°5 mph
9. 9 PM82°5 mph
10. 10 PM81°5 mph
11. 11 PM80°5 mph
12. Wed12 AM79°5 mph
13. 1 AM78°1%3 mph
14. 2 AM77°1%3 mph
15. 3 AM76°1%3 mph
16. 4 AM75°1%5 mph
17. 5 AM73°1%5 mph
18. 6 AM73°1%5 mph
19. 7 AM73°3%6 mph
20. 8 AM72°3%7 mph
21. 9 AM76°3%8 mph
22. 10 AM81°3%12 mph
23. 11 AM84°3%13 mph
24. 12 PM87°3%13 mph
25. 1 PM90°6%14 mph
26. 2 PM92°6%14 mph
27. 3 PM93°6%14 mph
28. 4 PM94°9%14 mph
29. 5 PM93°9%13 mph
30. 6 PM91°9%12 mph
31. 7 PM89°20%9 mph
32. 8 PM85°20%8 mph
33. 9 PM83°20%7 mph
34. 10 PM82°18%7 mph
35. 11 PM81°18%8 mph
36. Thu12 AM79°18%7 mph
37. 1 AM78°37%7 mph
38. 2 AM77°37%6 mph
39. 3 AM76°37%6 mph
40. 4 AM75°45%7 mph
41. 5 AM74°45%8 mph
42. 6 AM74°45%9 mph
43. 7 AM73°73%10 mph
44. 8 AM72°73%10 mph
45. 9 AM74°73%10 mph
46. 10 AM76°73%10 mph
47. 11 AM77°73%10 mph
48. 12 PM79°73%10 mph

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

1. TodaySep 2994°68°Partly Sunny1%wind 8 mph · gusts 16 mph
2. WedSep 3095°72°Partly Sunny20%0.03 inwind 14 mph · gusts 22 mph
3. ThuOct 184°67°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms93%2.27 inwind 10 mph · gusts 20 mph
4. FriOct 281°65°Showers And Thunderstorms94%1.68 inwind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
5. SatOct 380°63°Rain Showers Likely62%0.51 inwind 5 mph
6. SunOct 482°59°Chance Rain Showers27%0.18 inwind 7 mph · gusts 14 mph
7. MonOct 583°54°Sunny3%wind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
8. TueOct 682°54°6%wind 3 mph
9. WedOct 789°62°National Blend9%0.05 inwind 3 mph
10. ThuOct 890°60°National Blend8%0.01 inwind 3 mph
11. FriOct 990°60°National Blend4%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
12. SatOct 10~79°61°Model mean
13. SunOct 11~74°55°Model mean
14. MonOct 12~71°50°Model mean
15. TueOct 13~70°53°Model mean0.01 in
16. WedOct 14~87°57°Model mean

• Feels like90°
• WindS 8 mphgusts 16 mph
• Radar over this pointno reading
• Humidity39%
• Dew point62°
• Pressure—
• UV index—
• Air quality—
• Visibility10 mi
• Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset
• Moonrise8:48 PMMoonset 10:31 AM
• Moon phaseWaning gibbous90% lit

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

1. TodaySep 2996°73°NWS grid 94° / 68°rain 1%wind 9 mph · gusts 16 mph
2. WedSep 3096°71°NWS grid 95° / 72°rain 50%thunder 28%0.08 inwind 12 mph · gusts 21 mph
3. ThuOct 186°67°NWS grid 84° / 67°rain 95%thunder 37%2.60 inwind 10 mph · gusts 18 mph
4. FriOct 282°65°NWS grid 81° / 65°rain 88%thunder 37%1.41 inwind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
5. SatOct 381°64°NWS grid 80° / 63°rain 65%thunder 25%0.48 inwind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph
6. SunOct 483°60°NWS grid 82° / 59°rain 18%thunder 11%0.02 inwind 8 mph · gusts 14 mph
7. MonOct 584°58°NWS grid 83° / 54°rain 9%0.01 inwind 6 mph · gusts 12 mph
8. TueOct 685°58°NWS grid 82° / 54°rain 10%0.01 inwind 3 mph
9. WedOct 789°62°Beyond the NWS gridrain 9%0.05 inwind 3 mph
10. ThuOct 890°60°Beyond the NWS gridrain 8%0.01 inwind 3 mph
11. FriOct 990°60°Beyond the NWS gridrain 4%wind 5 mph · gusts 10 mph

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

NWS gridBlendHRRRGFSGEFS ± spreadECMWFECMWF AI

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

10 daysTemperature plume

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Wed Oct 14, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and lowCPC leans warmer than normalCPC near normal or equal chances

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated poor.

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

This hour: no-fly (low cloud limits height (107.51)). No stretch of two good hours in the next three days.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:46 AM to sunrise 7:16 AM, and sunset 7:09 PM to 7:39 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Good Caution No-fly

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

• Tue 8 PM to Wed 9 AM 13 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
• Sun 10 AM to 11 PM 13 hours, every hour within the rules
• Mon 9 AM to 9 PM 12 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C
• Tue 12 PM to 4 PM 4 hours, some with delta T between 8 and 10 °C

Good Marginal No

Field days

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

The best-rated day this week is Tuesday, rated fair.

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

1. This Afternoon94° · 1% · S 10 mph

   Partly sunny, with a high near 94. South wind around 10 mph.

2. Tonight72° · 1% · SE 5 mph

   Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

3. Wednesday95° · 9% · S 5–15 mph

   Partly sunny, with a high near 95. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

4. Wednesday Night72° · 45% · S 5–10 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

5. Thursday84° · 93% · S 5–10 mph

   A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

6. Thursday Night67° · 94% · SE 0–5 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

7. Friday81° · 94% · NE 0–5 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Northeast wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

8. Friday Night65° · 69% · N 0–5 mph

   Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. North wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

9. Saturday80° · 62% · NE 0–5 mph

   Rain showers likely before 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

10. Saturday Night63° · 62% · N 0–5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. North wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

11. Sunday82° · 27% · N 0–5 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. North wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

12. Sunday Night59° · 24% · N 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

13. Monday83° · 3% · NE 5 mph

    Sunny, with a high near 83. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

14. Monday Night54° · 3% · NE 0–5 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Northeast wind 0 to 5 mph.

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

FLUS44 KTSA 291821
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
121 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-301830-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
121 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Mainly Osage and Pawnee Counties.
ONSET...After 3PM.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon across 
parts of northeast Oklahoma, mainly in parts of Osage and Pawnee 
counties. No severe weather is expected.

Above normal temperatures and breezy southerly winds, combined
with ongoing drought conditions will pose a limited fire weather
threat through the afternoon across much of the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A strong storm system coupled with a plume of tropical moisture 
will result in widespread rains and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms late Wednesday through Friday. Locally heavy 
rainfall is likely, although placement of the heaviest rains 
remains somewhat uncertain. Parts of southeast Oklahoma are more 
favored for the higher rain totals currently. A window of severe 
weather potential may develop, especially Thursday afternoon and 
evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas. The heaviest rains will taper off by Friday, but a few 
showers and storms may linger into the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

The last spring freeze (32°F) usually comes around April 3 and the first fall freeze around November 1: a growing season of about 213 days.

One fall in ten brings a freeze by October 18; one spring in ten still has one after April 20.

Climate of 34.23, -95.63: normals, records and every month

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.