Current weather · Sep 26, 5:15 AM EDT

24.8960, -80.6640

78°

Chance of moderate rain showersFeels like 78° · Humidity 94%NWS forecast for this hour; no recent station reportForecast by NWS Key West, FL · grid 104,67
High
86°
Low
77°
Rain today
27%
Sunrise
7:13 AM
Sunset
7:15 PM
Issued 6 hours agoExpires in 12 hours · 5:00 PM EDT

All alerts for this county, and its warning history

Hour by hour

NWS forecast grid

Scroll sideways for more hours. Pick an hour for every number.

Every hour as a table48 hours
TimeWeatherTemperatureFeels likeDew pointHumidityChanceAmountSnowDirWindGustSky coverThunderPressureVisibilityCeiling
Sat 5 AMChance of moderate rain showers78°78°76°94%27%NNE10 mph14 mph18%26%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 6 AMChance of moderate rain showers78°78°76°94%27%NNE10 mph14 mph18%26%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 7 AMChance of moderate rain showers78°78°76°94%27%NNE10 mph14 mph18%26%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 8 AM78°78°76°94%12%NNE7 mph9 mph24%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 9 AM79°79°76°91%12%NNE7 mph9 mph24%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 10 AM80°86°76°88%12%NNE7 mph9 mph24%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 11 AM81°87°76°85%12%NNE6 mph8 mph15%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 12 PM83°91°76°80%12%NNE6 mph8 mph15%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 1 PM83°90°75°77%12%NNE6 mph8 mph15%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 2 PM84°91°74°72%12%WNW2 mph3 mph11%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 3 PM84°91°74°72%12%WNW2 mph3 mph11%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 4 PM85°93°74°70%12%WNW2 mph3 mph11%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 5 PM84°91°74°72%12%WNW5 mph7 mph31%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 6 PM84°91°74°72%12%WNW5 mph7 mph31%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 7 PM83°89°73°72%12%WNW5 mph7 mph31%22%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 8 PM82°87°73°74%13%WNW6 mph8 mph32%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 9 PM82°87°73°74%13%WNW6 mph8 mph32%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 10 PM81°86°73°77%13%WNW6 mph8 mph32%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sat 11 PM81°85°72°74%13%NNW5 mph7 mph21%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 12 AM80°84°72°77%13%NNW5 mph7 mph21%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 1 AM80°84°73°79%13%NNW5 mph7 mph21%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 2 AM80°84°73°79%13%N5 mph7 mph17%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 3 AM79°79°73°82%13%N5 mph7 mph17%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 4 AM79°79°73°82%13%N5 mph7 mph17%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 5 AM79°79°73°82%13%NNE5 mph7 mph16%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 6 AM78°78°73°85%13%NNE5 mph7 mph16%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 7 AM77°77°73°88%13%NNE5 mph7 mph16%14%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 8 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers79°79°73°82%15%NNE5 mph7 mph6%10%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 9 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers79°79°73°82%15%NNE5 mph7 mph6%10%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 10 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers81°85°72°74%15%NNE5 mph7 mph6%10%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 11 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers81°85°72°74%15%NNE1 mph1 mph12%10%—10 mi-100 ft
Sun 12 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers82°87°72°72%15%NNE1 mph1 mph12%10%——
Sun 1 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers82°86°71°69%15%NNE1 mph1 mph12%10%——
Sun 2 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers83°88°71°67%15%WSW1 mph1 mph22%10%——
Sun 3 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers83°87°70°65%15%WSW1 mph1 mph22%10%——
Sun 4 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers84°89°71°65%15%WSW1 mph1 mph22%10%——
Sun 5 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers83°88°71°67%15%W3 mph5 mph22%10%——
Sun 6 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers83°88°71°67%15%W3 mph5 mph22%10%——
Sun 7 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers82°86°71°69%15%W3 mph5 mph22%10%——
Sun 8 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers82°86°71°69%17%W3 mph5 mph17%14%——
Sun 9 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers82°86°71°69%17%W3 mph5 mph17%14%——
Sun 10 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers82°86°71°69%17%W3 mph5 mph17%14%——
Sun 11 PMSlight chance of moderate rain showers81°85°70°69%17%W3 mph5 mph46%14%——
Mon 12 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers81°85°70°69%17%W3 mph5 mph46%14%——
Mon 1 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers81°85°71°72%17%W3 mph5 mph46%14%——
Mon 2 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers81°85°71°72%17%W2 mph3 mph53%14%——
Mon 3 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers80°83°71°74%17%W2 mph3 mph53%14%——
Mon 4 AMSlight chance of moderate rain showers80°83°71°74%17%W2 mph3 mph53%14%——

The next 16 days

NWS grid published Sep 26, 4:15 AM EDT to day 8, the National Blend of Models to day 10, the mean of GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AI to day 16
  1. TodaySep 2686°77°Chance Rain Showers then Sunny27%0.10 inwind 10 mph
  2. SunSep 2784°79°Slight Chance Rain Showers17%wind 5 mph
  3. MonSep 2885°79°Chance Showers And Thunderstorms65%0.02 inwind 5 mph
  4. TueSep 2985°79°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely73%0.38 inwind 8 mph
  5. WedSep 3085°80°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely73%0.50 inwind 15 mph
  6. ThuOct 186°82°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely72%0.54 inwind 18 mph
  7. FriOct 287°81°Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms55%0.25 inwind 17 mph
  8. SatOct 387°81°41%0.01 inwind 15 mph
  9. SunOct 486°81°National Blend43%0.23 inwind 13 mph
  10. MonOct 586°80°National Blend40%0.14 inwind 10 mph
  11. TueOct 6~83°82°Model mean0.23 in
  12. WedOct 7~83°81°Model mean0.24 in
  13. ThuOct 8~83°81°Model mean0.28 in
  14. FriOct 9~82°80°Model mean0.57 in
  15. SatOct 10~81°79°Model mean0.64 in
  16. SunOct 11~83°81°Model mean0.50 in

Right now

NWS grid for this hour · UV from the EPA · air quality from AirNow
  • Feels like78°
  • WindNNE 10 mphgusts 14 mph
  • Radar over this pointno reading
  • Humidity94%
  • Dew point76°
  • Pressure—
  • UV index—
  • Air quality—
  • Visibility10 mi
  • Sunrise and sunsetSunrise · Sunset · not yet up
  • Moonrise7:11 PMMoonset 7:03 AM
  • Moon phaseFull moon100% lit

The National Blend of Models

NOAA NBM v5.0 · run of Sep 26, 2:00 AM EDT

NOAA’s weighted blend of every model it runs, to eleven days, with the chances the grid above does not carry. Where the local office’s grid reaches, its figure sits beneath the blend’s; where it does not, the blend stands alone.

  1. TodaySep 2685°77°NWS grid 86° / 77°rain 14%thunder 19%wind 14 mph
  2. SunSep 2784°79°NWS grid 84° / 79°rain 11%thunder 11%wind 9 mph
  3. MonSep 2885°79°NWS grid 85° / 79°rain 69%thunder 35%0.03 inwind 5 mph
  4. TueSep 2985°79°NWS grid 85° / 79°rain 82%thunder 54%0.37 inwind 8 mph
  5. WedSep 3085°80°NWS grid 85° / 80°rain 78%thunder 48%0.47 inwind 15 mph
  6. ThuOct 186°82°NWS grid 86° / 82°rain 73%thunder 43%0.57 inwind 18 mph
  7. FriOct 287°81°NWS grid 87° / 81°rain 58%thunder 33%0.24 inwind 17 mph
  8. SatOct 387°81°NWS grid 87° / 81°rain 42%thunder 31%wind 15 mph
  9. SunOct 486°81°Beyond the NWS gridrain 43%0.23 inwind 13 mph
  10. MonOct 586°80°Beyond the NWS gridrain 40%0.14 inwind 10 mph
  11. TueOct 686°—Beyond the NWS gridrain 45%0.06 inwind 9 mph
77°82°86°SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

BlendNWS gridChance of rain, hourly

The models, side by side

HRRR Sep 26, 2:00 AM EDT · GFS Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · GEFS Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · ECMWF Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT · ECMWF AI Sep 25, 8:00 PM EDT

Each line is one model’s own forecast at its own grid cell: three kilometers for HRRR, a quarter of a degree for the global models, which can sit a few hundred meters above or below the town. Where they agree the forecast is settled; where they part is where it is not.

77°82°86°SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

DayNWS gridHRRRGFSGEFSECMWFECMWF AI
Today Sep 2686° 77°0.10 in82° 79°82° 78°0.09 in83° 78°0.09 in83° 77°0.12 in~83° 80°0.05 in
Sun Sep 2784° 79°82° 78°82° 79°0.02 in82° 79°0.06 in82° 77°~83° 80°
Mon Sep 2885° 79°0.02 in~81° 81°81° 80°0.07 in82° 80°0.14 in83° 80°0.03 in~83° 80°0.21 in
Tue Sep 2985° 79°0.38 in—83° 82°0.20 in82° 81°0.21 in83° 77°0.30 in~81° 79°0.56 in
Wed Sep 3085° 80°0.50 in—83° 81°0.44 in83° 82°0.36 in83° 77°0.30 in~81° 79°0.51 in
Thu Oct 186° 82°0.54 in—83° 78°0.61 in83° 82°0.45 in85° 80°0.54 in~83° 81°0.37 in
Fri Oct 287° 81°0.25 in—84° 83°0.07 in84° 83°0.47 in~84° 82°0.22 in~85° 82°0.19 in
Sat Oct 387° 81°0.01 in—84° 83°0.10 in84° 83°0.26 in~85° 82°0.29 in~85° 83°0.11 in
Sun Oct 4——84° 83°0.19 in84° 83°0.23 in~85° 82°0.02 in~85° 83°0.08 in
Mon Oct 5——83° 83°0.04 in84° 83°0.16 in~84° 84°0.01 in~84° 83°0.09 in
Tue Oct 6——~84° 82°0.30 in—~83° 82°0.18 in~83° 82°0.22 in
Wed Oct 7——~83° 82°0.13 in—~82° 80°0.32 in~84° 82°0.26 in
Thu Oct 8——~83° 83°0.20 in—~81° 79°0.19 in~84° 82°0.46 in
Fri Oct 9——~83° 82°0.31 in—~81° 78°0.26 in~82° 81°1.13 in
Sat Oct 10——~82° 78°0.76 in—~80° 78°0.26 in~81° 80°0.91 in
Sun Oct 11——~83° 81°0.50 in———

A ~ marks a high or low read from six-hourly steps, which miss the true extreme by a degree or two.

ECMWF ensemble meteogram

ECMWF ensemble meteogram for this place: box plots of cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and temperature from the 51 ensemble members for ten days.
Rendered by ECMWF from its 51-member ensemble, in metric units: each box spans the middle half of the members, the whiskers the rest, the line the control run. A forecast, not an observation. © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

The next 90 days

NOAA GHCN normals and records at Marathon (MTH) · Climate Prediction Center outlooks

No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one. Where the models stop, the calendar takes over: the 1991 to 2020 normal for each date, the record high and low ever set on it, and where the Climate Prediction Center leans warm, cool, wet or dry over the coming weeks, the month and the season. A site that shows a high for a date three months out is showing you this normal with a wobble.

The forecast reaches Sun Oct 11, from the NWS grid, then the National Blend, then the mean of the global models. Beyond it the lines are the calendar.

40°50°60°70°80°90°TodayOct 1Nov 1Dec 1

Forecast high and lowNormal high and lowRecord high and low

Week ofNormalWarmest on recordColdest on recordTemperature leanPrecipitation lean
Sep 2688° / 78°95° (2006)70° (2009)no outlookno outlook
Oct 388° / 78°93° (2023)68° (2011)no outlookno outlook
Oct 1087° / 77°93° (2009)71° (2021)no outlookno outlook
Oct 1786° / 76°91° (2007)61° (2009)no outlookno outlook
Oct 2484° / 75°91° (2019)58° (2008)no outlookno outlook
Oct 3183° / 73°90° (2019)56° (2014)no outlookno outlook
Nov 782° / 72°89° (2015)55° (2025)no outlookno outlook
Nov 1480° / 71°88° (2008)56° (2002)no outlookno outlook
Nov 2181° / 70°88° (2022)53° (2006)no outlookno outlook
Nov 2879° / 69°88° (2022)56° (2021)no outlookno outlook
Dec 578° / 69°88° (2016)49° (2010)no outlookno outlook
Dec 1278° / 67°88° (2016)44° (2010)no outlookno outlook
Dec 1976° / 68°88° (2016)51° (2003)no outlookno outlook

Health and activities

Rules of thumb over the next 24 hours of forecast, the warnings in force, the station’s report, air quality and pollen

None of these is a measurement. Each is a rating of the forecast ahead, and of what is happening at the point right now, against what the activity or the ailment is known to mind, and each names the figure that decided it. An ailment or a pest is rated as a risk, low to extreme; an activity, a chore or a journey as a condition, poor to ideal.

Each rating says which span it is for: the rest of today’s daylight, tonight, or the next 24 hours.

Health

  • Arthritisnext 24 hModeratehumid
  • Sinus pressurenext 24 hLowsteady conditions
  • Common coldtodayLowmild
  • FlutodayLowmild
  • Migrainenext 24 hModerateheat
  • Asthmanext 24 hLowclean air
  • Heat stresstodayHighheat
  • SunburntodayLowweak sun
  • Frostbitenext 24 hLowmild
  • SleepingtonightPoorwarm night

Outdoors

  • RunningtodayFairhot
  • HikingtodayGoodthunderstorms
  • BikingtodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • GolftodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • FishingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • Boating and paddlingtodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • Beach and pooltodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • CampingtonightPoorCoastal Flood Advisory in force
  • StargazingtonightPoorbright moon

Travel

  • Air travelnext 24 hGoodCoastal Flood Advisory in force
  • Drivingnext 24 hPoorCoastal Flood Advisory in force

Home and garden

  • Lawn mowingtodayIdealfine conditions
  • GardeningtodayVery goodthunderstorms
  • Outdoor entertainingtodayGoodthunderstorms
  • Drying laundry outsidetodayFairchance of rain
  • Painting and outdoor projectstodayGoodchance of rain
  • FrosttonightLowmild

Pests

  • MosquitoestodayExtremewarm
  • TickstodayVery highwarm
  • Indoor pestsnext 24 hLowmild
  • Outdoor peststodayVery highwarm

Stargazing

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast and the sun and moon

Tonight has no dark, clear hour without a bright moon in this forecast. Rated fair.

Night ofRatingDarkClear hoursClear and moonlessMoon litTransparency (est.)DewStrongest wind
SaturdayFair8:30 PM to 5:57 AM4 of 10None100%Fair6 mph
SundayFair8:29 PM to 5:58 AM3 of 10None98%Good3 mph
MondayPoor8:28 PM to 5:58 AM0 of 10None94%5 mph
TuesdayPoor8:27 PM to 5:59 AM0 of 10None87%8 mph
WednesdayPoor8:26 PM to 5:59 AM0 of 10None80%15 mph
ThursdayPoor8:25 PM to 5:59 AM0 of 10None70%18 mph
FridayPoor8:24 PM to 6:00 AM0 of 10None60%15 mph

Dark is the sun 18 degrees below the horizon; where it never gets that low, 12 degrees, marked nautical. Clear is sky cover of 20% or less. A bright moon is one above the horizon with a quarter or more of its disc lit. Transparency in the table is estimated from surface humidity (70% and 85% mark fair and poor) and visibility, since the forecast carries no haze or high cloud moisture. Seeing and transparency by hour, where shown, are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s astronomy forecast (regional model; seeing from cloud, wind shear, turbulence near the ground and the surface temperature trend; transparency from the moisture through the whole air column), under the Open Government Licence - Canada. Dew is the air within 2 °C of its dew point. Excellent is four or more clear moonless hours with good transparency; good is three; fair is one, or two clear hours.

Golden hour and blue hour

Computed from the sun and moon positions
DayBlue hour, morningGolden hour, morningGolden hour, eveningBlue hour, evening
Sat6:50 AM to 6:59 AM6:59 AM to 7:43 AM6:44 PM to 7:29 PM7:29 PM to 7:37 PM
Sun6:50 AM to 6:59 AM6:59 AM to 7:43 AM6:43 PM to 7:28 PM7:28 PM to 7:36 PM
Mon6:51 AM to 7:00 AM7:00 AM to 7:44 AM6:42 PM to 7:26 PM7:26 PM to 7:35 PM
Tue6:51 AM to 7:00 AM7:00 AM to 7:44 AM6:41 PM to 7:25 PM7:25 PM to 7:34 PM
Wed6:52 AM to 7:00 AM7:00 AM to 7:45 AM6:40 PM to 7:24 PM7:24 PM to 7:33 PM
Thu6:52 AM to 7:01 AM7:01 AM to 7:45 AM6:39 PM to 7:23 PM7:23 PM to 7:32 PM
Fri6:52 AM to 7:01 AM7:01 AM to 7:45 AM6:38 PM to 7:22 PM7:22 PM to 7:31 PM
NESWSRSSMRMS
  • SR Sunrise 7:13 AM, 91° E
  • SS Sunset 7:15 PM, 269° W
  • MR Moonrise 7:11 PM, 84° E
  • MS Moonset 7:03 AM, 273° W
  • Full moon, 100% lit

Golden hour is the sun between 6 degrees above the horizon and 4 degrees below it; blue hour is the sun between 4 and 6 degrees below. These are the definitions timeanddate.com and PhotoPills use. Directions are degrees clockwise from true north, where the sun’s upper edge and the moon’s center cross a flat horizon; hills and buildings change both. None means the sun does not reach that height on the day; all day means it stays inside the band.

Drone flying

NWS hourly forecast, SWPC Kp, FAA TFRs and 14 CFR Part 107

This hour: no-fly (wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)). No stretch of two good hours in the next three days.

Today: civil twilight for Part 107 6:43 AM to sunrise 7:13 AM, and sunset 7:15 PM to 7:45 PM. Anti-collision lighting is required in those minutes and at night.

Sat6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sun12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Caution No-fly

HourVerdictWind (mph)400 ft est. (mph)Gust (mph)RainVisibilityCloud allowsTempKpWhy
Sat 5 AMNo-fly10252827%10 miup to 0 ft78°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 6 AMNo-fly10252827%10 miup to 0 ft78°wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 7 AMNo-fly10131727%10 miup to 0 ft78°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), civil twilight: lighting required (107.29)
Sat 8 AMNo-fly791112%10 miup to 0 ft78°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 9 AMNo-fly791112%10 miup to 0 ft79°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 10 AMNo-fly781112%10 miup to 0 ft80°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 11 AMNo-fly67912%10 miup to 0 ft81°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 12 PMNo-fly67912%10 miup to 0 ft83°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 1 PMNo-fly67912%10 miup to 0 ft83°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 2 PMNo-fly23412%10 miup to 0 ft84°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 3 PMNo-fly23412%10 miup to 0 ft84°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 4 PMNo-fly23412%10 miup to 0 ft85°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 5 PMNo-fly56812%10 miup to 0 ft84°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 6 PMNo-fly56812%10 miup to 0 ft84°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51)
Sat 7 PMNo-fly5182112%10 miup to 0 ft83°thunderstorms possible, low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 8 PMNo-fly6232513%10 miup to 0 ft82°gusts near or over your limit, low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 9 PMNo-fly6232513%10 miup to 0 ft82°gusts near or over your limit, low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 10 PMNo-fly6232513%10 miup to 0 ft81°gusts near or over your limit, low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sat 11 PMNo-fly5182113%10 miup to 0 ft81°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 12 AMNo-fly5182113%10 miup to 0 ft80°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 1 AMNo-fly5182113%10 miup to 0 ft80°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 2 AMNo-fly5182113%10 miup to 0 ft80°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 3 AMNo-fly5182113%10 miup to 0 ft79°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)
Sun 4 AMNo-fly5182113%10 miup to 0 ft79°low cloud limits height (107.51), wind at 400 ft near or over your limit, gusts near or over your limit, thunderstorms possible, night: lighting and night training required (107.29)

Flight restrictions nearby

Reading the FAA’s temporary flight restrictions.

Flight restrictions on the map. TFRs are not the whole picture: controlled airspace around airports needs LAANC authorization. Check the FAA’s B4UFLY.

Wind at 400 ft is estimated from the 10 m forecast by the power law, with exponents for each Pasquill stability class (Irwin 1979, rural, as in EPA dispersion models; the class from wind, sun height and cloud, after Turner 1970); gusts keep the ground gust’s margin. Caution from three quarters of your limit; the default 24 mph is the wind resistance printed for common sub-250 g drones. 14 CFR 107.51: “The minimum flight visibility, as observed from the location of the control station must be no less than 3 statute miles” and at least “500 feet below the cloud”. 14 CFR 107.29: “No person may operate a small unmanned aircraft system during periods of civil twilight unless the small unmanned aircraft has lighted anti-collision lighting visible for at least 3 statute miles”; civil twilight is the 30 minutes before sunrise and after sunset, in Alaska the Air Almanac’s. Kp: SWPC’s scales say satellite navigation problems may occur at G3 (Kp 7) and navigation is “degraded for hours” at G4 (Kp 8); Kp 5 is the typical app warning. Typical limits, not rules: rain chance 30% caution and 60% no-fly, thunder 10% and 20%, below 0 °C caution and −10 °C no-fly, over 40 °C caution. Your drone’s manual and the airspace come first.

Spraying and field work

Worked out from the NWS hourly forecast

Hours fit for spraying, and the days dry enough for fieldwork and hay, read from this forecast’s wind, gusts, humidity, temperature and rain.

Spraying windows

  • Sat 11 AM to 2 PM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Sat 5 PM to Sun 7 AM 14 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Sun 8 AM to 11 AM 3 hours, every hour within the rules
  • Sun 5 PM to Mon 2 AM 9 hours, every hour within the rules
Sat6 AM12 PM6 PM
Sun12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Mon12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM
Tue12 AM6 AM12 PM6 PM

Good Marginal No

Field days

DayDaytimeChance of rainRainLowest humidityStrongest windDry days in a rowHay drying
SaturdayShowers possible12%0.10 in70%7 mph
SundayDry15%0.00 in65%5 mph2 d
MondayDry28%0.02 in67%5 mph1 d
TuesdayWet69%0.38 in77%6 mph
WednesdayWet63%0.50 in77%12 mph
ThursdayWet69%0.54 in80%18 mph
FridayWet50%0.25 in80%16 mph
SaturdayShowers possible38%0.01 in80%14 mph

Spraying: sustained wind 3 to 10 mph, the range US extension services and most labels give; gusts no more than 15 mph (this page’s limit); delta T (air minus wet-bulb temperature) 2 to 8 °C preferred and 8 to 10 °C marginal, from GRDC guidance, with the wet bulb by Stull’s formula; no hour at a 30% chance of rain or 0.25 mm forecast during the rain-free time. Follow the product label, which overrides all of this. Field days: dry is no daytime hour at a 30% chance and under 1 mm all day, wet is 6 mm (0.25 in) or more; soil moisture is not in the forecast, so ground still wet from earlier rain is not accounted for. Hay drying marks a dry day with humidity down to 50% and a breeze of 5 mph or more.

Solunar times

Computed from the moon’s position

The best-rated day this week is Saturday, rated best.

DayRatingMajor periodsMinor periodsMoonSunrise, sunset
Sat Best11:47 PM to 1:47 AM12:10 PM to 2:10 PM6:33 AM to 7:33 AM6:41 PM to 7:41 PM 100%7:13 AM, 7:15 PM
Sun Best12:33 AM to 2:33 AM12:57 PM to 2:57 PM7:32 AM to 8:32 AM7:16 PM to 8:16 PM 99%7:13 AM, 7:14 PM
Mon Good1:21 AM to 3:21 AM1:47 PM to 3:47 PM8:33 AM to 9:33 AM7:55 PM to 8:55 PM 95%7:14 AM, 7:13 PM
Tue Fair2:13 AM to 4:13 AM2:40 PM to 4:40 PM9:38 AM to 10:38 AM8:39 PM to 9:39 PM 90%7:14 AM, 7:11 PM
Wed Poor3:09 AM to 5:09 AM3:39 PM to 5:39 PM10:45 AM to 11:45 AM9:29 PM to 10:29 PM 83%7:14 AM, 7:10 PM
Thu Fair4:09 AM to 6:09 AM4:40 PM to 6:40 PM11:52 AM to 12:52 PM10:27 PM to 11:27 PM 74%7:15 AM, 7:09 PM
Fri Fair5:12 AM to 7:12 AM5:43 PM to 7:43 PM12:56 PM to 1:56 PM 64%7:15 AM, 7:08 PM

Periods in bold fall within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The weather’s side is the fishing index

Major periods are two hours centered on the moon’s passage overhead and underfoot; minor periods are one hour centered on moonrise and moonset: the conventional durations of John Alden Knight’s solunar tables (1936). The rating is this site’s: one point to start, two more within a day and a half of a new or full moon (one more within three and a half days), and one more when a period falls within an hour of sunrise or sunset. The theory has mixed support in fisheries research; the times are exact astronomy.

In words

NWS forecast periods, as issued
  1. Overnight78° · 27% · N 10 mph

    A chance of rain showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 78. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  2. Saturday86° · 27% · NW 0–10 mph

    A chance of rain showers before 8am. Sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind 0 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  3. Saturday Night77° · 13% · NW 5 mph

    Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

  4. Sunday84° · 15% · NW 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers after 8am. Sunny, with a high near 84. Northwest wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

  5. Sunday Night79° · 17% · W 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. West wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

  6. Monday85° · 28% · S 0–5 mph

    A slight chance of rain showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  7. Monday Night79° · 65% · S 0–5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  8. Tuesday85° · 69% · SE 0–5 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  9. Tuesday Night79° · 73% · SE 5–10 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  10. Wednesday85° · 73% · E 10 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  11. Wednesday Night80° · 72% · E 10–15 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  12. Thursday86° · 72% · E 15–20 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  13. Thursday Night82° · 69% · E 15–20 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 82. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  14. Friday87° · 55% · SE 15 mph

    Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

The forecaster’s discussion

NWS Key West, FL · issued Sep 26, 1:28 AM EDT

Written by the forecaster on duty for their own colleagues and for anyone who wants to know why the forecast says what it says. It is not edited for the public, so it uses the office’s shorthand; it is also the most honest thing any weather service publishes.

KEY Messages

Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely through next week due to a potent King Tide. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Florida Keys. Coastal Flood Advisories may be required as early as Sunday night, and will likely be required for much of the Keys by Monday night.

Increasing northeasterly swell from a Nor'easter off the East Coast will allow seas to build to 4 to 5 feet through the weekend in the eastern Straits of Florida off the Upper Keys.

Discussion

1029 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A complex pattern is currently place across the Lower 48. First, a deep and highly amplified upper level trough is in place just off the Eastern Seaboard which is currently responsible for the ongoing Nor'easter at the surface just off the Mid-Atlantic states. On either side of this trough are two ridges with one over the Central North Atlantic and another complex ridge across the Southern and Central Plains. The ridge across the Plains actually has two distinct centers as seen on CIMSS products with one over SE Texas and the other over Wisconsin. The ridge over the Atlantic and the ridges across the middle of the country are basically squeeze playing and locking the trough in place off the Eastern Seaboard for now with no where for the ongoing Nor'easter to go. How does this affect our weather? At the surface, a cold front pressed through earlier this morning in association with the low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic states. Marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording northwest to north breezes of 5 to 10 knots south of the Island Chain and 10 to 15 knots north of the Chain. KBYX radar is detecting some scattered showers across the nearshore and offshore waters adjacent to the Upper Keys, including the Upper Keys. MRMS data shows estimated rainfall amounts from these showers ranging anywhere from a trace to in excess of a half inch of rainfall. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s.

Short Term Forecast

The 00z evening sounding shows a fairly dry profile. The exception being just above the surface between 950-925 mb where a shallow moist layer remains. The PWAT value measured was 1.32 inches which is just below the 10th percentile for the date. The wind profile shows northwest winds around 1000 ft, north-northeast around 2000 ft and then northwest to north around 3000 ft which would suggest more of a neutral advection instead of any cold air or warm air advection. If the winds were backing through the whole profile, then this would be more indicative of cold air advection, albeit, extremely weak. Based on this, no changes are expected to the ongoing forecast and since we still have some moisture in the lowest levels, a few residual showers overnight cannot be completely ruled out.

Marine

1029 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an early season cold front will remain draped across the distant Straits of Florida for much of the weekend, supporting light to gentle northerlies. A Nor'easter off the Eastern Seaboard will support a northeasterly swell with large periods in the eastern marine zones through Sunday. The front will push back northward on Monday through the marine zones. Winds will then clock back around to the southeast to south for early next week, also accompanied by increasing rain and thunder chances.

Aviation

122 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

(06Z TAFS)

VCSH will continue near KEYW for another few hours with occasional bouts of MVFR ceilings possible at both terminals. In all, VFR conditions will prevail for much of this TAF cycle due to a large amount of dry air present across the area in the wake of a front. A secondary trough axis rotating south across the eastern Gulf will occasionally produce spotty showers, but coverage will be limited. Expect persistent northerly sfc winds around 5 to 10 knots.

Preliminary Point Temps / Pops

Key West 88 77 87 77 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 86 77 86 77 / 10 20 10 10

KEY Watches / Warnings / Advisories

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076.

GM...None.

The outlooks beyond

SPC, WPC, CPC and the Drought Monitor, read at this point

The national centers each publish a judgment the local grid does not carry. Read here at this exact coordinate.

Severe weather

  1. Day 1 · Sat Sep 26No risk area
  2. Day 2 · Sun Sep 27No risk area
  3. Day 3 · Mon Sep 28General Thunderstorms Risk
  4. Day 4 · Tue Sep 29No risk area
  5. Day 5 · Wed Sep 30No risk area
  6. Day 6 · Thu Oct 1No risk area
  7. Day 7 · Fri Oct 2No risk area
  8. Day 8 · Sat Oct 3No risk area

Rainfall

  1. Day 1 · Sat Sep 260.01 in
  2. Day 2 · Sun Sep 27Under 0.01 in
  3. Day 3 · Mon Sep 280.10 in
  4. Day 4-5 · Sep 29–Sep 300.75 in
  5. Day 6-7 · Oct 1–Oct 20.50 in

The rainfall forecast on the map, days 1 to 7

Six to fourteen days

  1. Days 6–10 · TemperatureEqual chances
  2. Days 6–10 · PrecipitationEqual chances
  3. Days 8–14 · TemperatureEqual chances
  4. Days 8–14 · PrecipitationEqual chances

Drought

  1. Drought MonitorNo drought
  2. Outlook for Sep 2026Drought removal likely

Drought in this county: the map, the record since 2000 and the outlook

Frost and climate

NOAA 1991-2020 normals, Islamorada

A freeze (32°F or colder) comes in only 0 percent of years here.

Climate of 24.90, -80.66: normals, records and every month

Everything else on the grid

NWS forecast grid · 31 elements

The forecast office edits about sixty fields for every cell of its grid. The common ones are above; these are the rest, as the daily extreme, for anyone who needs the mixing height, the fire danger or the swell.

ElementSatSunMonTueWedThuFriSat
HeatRisk max2 · Moderate1 · Minor2 · Moderate2 · Moderate2 · Moderate2 · Moderate2 · Moderate2 · Moderate
Wet bulb globe temperature max84°82°83°83°84°84°85°85°
Heat index max93°89°90°93°96°100°101°101°
Chance of thunder max26%14%45%47%48%42%38%31%
Lightning activity level max11333333
Cloud ceiling min-100 ft-100 ft
Visibility min10 mi10 mi
Mixing height max3,000 ft2,900 ft3,200 ft1,600 ft2,400 ft
Transport wind max13 mph9 mph10 mph7 mph15 mph
Twenty-foot wind max8 mph3 mph3 mph7 mph12 mph15 mph14 mph12 mph
Dispersion index max2625414
Low visibility risk max6546

Against the record

NOAA GHCN · Marathon (MTH) · 27 mi away

Each forecast day against the same calendar date at the nearest long-record station: the 1991 to 2020 normal, and the record high and low with the year they were set.

DayForecastNormalRecord highRecord low
Sat Sep 2686° / 77°89° / 78°93° (2002)72° (2001)
Sun Sep 2784° / 79°89° / 78°94° (2006)71° (2016)
Mon Sep 2885° / 79°89° / 78°95° (2006)73° (2001)
Tue Sep 2985° / 79°88° / 78°91° (2002)71° (2001)
Wed Sep 3085° / 80°89° / 77°91° (2002)72° (2008)
Thu Oct 186° / 82°88° / 78°92° (2014)70° (2009)
Fri Oct 287° / 81°88° / 77°92° (2023)72° (2010)
Sat Oct 387° / 81°88° / 78°90° (1998)72° (1999)

Sun and moon

DayCivil twilightSunriseSunsetCivil twilightDaylightMoon
Sat6:50 AM7:13 AM7:15 PM7:37 PM12 h 2 min Full moon · 100% lit
Sun6:50 AM7:13 AM7:14 PM7:36 PM12 h 1 min Waning gibbous · 99% lit
Mon6:51 AM7:14 AM7:13 PM7:35 PM11 h 59 min Waning gibbous · 95% lit
Tue6:51 AM7:14 AM7:11 PM7:34 PM11 h 57 min Waning gibbous · 90% lit
Wed6:52 AM7:14 AM7:10 PM7:33 PM11 h 56 min Waning gibbous · 83% lit
Thu6:52 AM7:15 AM7:09 PM7:32 PM11 h 54 min Waning gibbous · 74% lit
Fri6:52 AM7:15 AM7:08 PM7:31 PM11 h 53 min Waning gibbous · 64% lit
Sat6:53 AM7:16 AM7:07 PM7:30 PM11 h 51 min Last quarter · 54% lit

Forecast from the National Weather Service forecast grid at api.weather.gov, updated by the local office through the day; the written periods and hourly digest are the NWS’s own. Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, the Weather Prediction Center and the Climate Prediction Center via NOAA’s map services. Records and normals from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network. Sun and moon computed here. Place names from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).

What is here

Seven days
The high, the low, the chance and amount of rain and snow, the wind and the forecaster’s words for each day and night, from the National Weather Service grid for the exact cell your town sits in.
Hour by hour
Temperature, what it feels like, dew point, humidity, chance and amount of precipitation, wind and gusts, sky cover, the chance of thunder, pressure, visibility and ceiling, as a chart and as a table, with nights shaded.
Everything else on the grid
The office edits about sixty fields for every cell. The ones the mainstream forecast pages leave out are here as a daily table: HeatRisk, wet bulb globe temperature, lightning activity, mixing height, transport wind, the fire weather indices, and at the coast the waves and swell.
The discussion
The Area Forecast Discussion the forecaster wrote to explain the forecast, in their own words, with the specialist annexes folded away. Also the office’s hazardous weather outlook.
Beyond the week
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather category for each of the next eight days, the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast to day seven and its winter storm severity, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for days six to fourteen, all read at your coordinate.
Against the record
Each forecast day beside the same date at the nearest long-record station: the thirty-year normal and the record high and low with their years, so a forecast high that would break a record says so.
The next 90 days
The forecast as far as the grid, the National Blend and the global models reach, and the calendar after that: the normal and the record for every date, with the Climate Prediction Center’s lean for the weeks, the month and the season drawn over them. No made-up highs for a date three months out.

Common questions

Where does this forecast come from?

From the National Weather Service forecast grid published at api.weather.gov, the same grid the local forecast office edits through the day and the source of every forecast on weather.gov. The written periods, the hourly digest and the forecaster’s discussion are the NWS’s own products, shown as issued. Nothing here is a blend a website made.

How far ahead does it go?

The grid runs seven days ahead, hour by hour for the first days and in three to six hour steps after that. The National Blend of Models carries the days to eleven and the global models to sixteen. Beyond that the page carries the national centers’ outlooks, severe weather to day eight, rainfall to day seven, and the Climate Prediction Center’s odds for the coming weeks, month and season, over a ninety-day calendar of the normal and the record for each date. No forecast has skill day by day past about two weeks, and this page does not print one.

Why is this different from the app on my phone?

Most forecast apps show a blend of models chosen by the company that makes the app. This page shows the forecast the local National Weather Service office issues, edited by the forecasters who will also issue the warnings, and it shows all of it rather than the six numbers that fit on a phone. The discussion explains the reasoning, which no app carries.

What is a place’s address here?

Every town has its own page, such as /forecast/us/oklahoma/oklahoma-city/, and every day at a town has one too. A ZIP code typed into the search goes to the town it belongs to. Any coordinate at all can be looked up, and the page names the nearest town.

What the weather actually was · Open the live radar · Where the data comes from