Belle Meade climate

Belle Meade Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Warner Park, 5.9 km from Belle Meade, elevation 625 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Warner Park. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around April 6 and the first fall freeze around November 1, a growing season of about 208 days.

Median at 36°F
last April 20, first October 22
Median at 32°F
last April 6, first November 1
Median at 28°F
last March 25, first November 10

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FMay 7May 1Apr 27Apr 23Apr 20Apr 15Apr 12Apr 8Apr 2
32°FApr 25Apr 18Apr 13Apr 9Apr 6Apr 3Mar 31Mar 27Mar 19
28°FApr 9Apr 4Apr 1Mar 29Mar 25Mar 21Mar 17Mar 13Mar 6
24°FMar 31Mar 24Mar 19Mar 16Mar 12Mar 8Mar 4Feb 28Feb 21
20°FMar 18Mar 12Mar 6Mar 2Feb 27Feb 23Feb 18Feb 11Feb 2
16°FMar 9Mar 2Feb 26Feb 20Feb 14Feb 9Feb 3Jan 30Jan 20

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FOct 9Oct 14Oct 18Oct 20Oct 22Oct 25Oct 27Oct 30Nov 2
32°FOct 19Oct 23Oct 26Oct 30Nov 1Nov 2Nov 5Nov 8Nov 13
28°FOct 28Nov 1Nov 4Nov 7Nov 10Nov 12Nov 16Nov 20Nov 28
24°FNov 5Nov 11Nov 14Nov 18Nov 22Nov 26Nov 30Dec 4Dec 10
20°FNov 15Nov 21Nov 26Dec 1Dec 4Dec 7Dec 11Dec 18Dec 26
16°FNov 28Dec 3Dec 8Dec 13Dec 20Dec 27Jan 1Jan 6Jan 16

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F207200195191187182177171162
32°F229222216212208203199194185
28°F252244239234230225219213206
24°F282272265259253248244238230
20°F309299291285278272267260251
16°F339328320312306301294287275

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
100% of years
28°F or colder
100% of years
24°F or colder
100% of years
20°F or colder
100% of years
16°F or colder
99% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
3,727
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
1,437
Growing degree days, base 40°F
7,266
Growing degree days, base 45°F
5,802
Growing degree days, base 50°F
4,474
Growing degree days, base 55°F
3,306
Growing degree days, base 60°F
2,294

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January845025
February652141
March4735122
April21934293
May64120522
June4269716
July0395860
August1374838
September26195620
October20440318
November502385
December738036

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 5.9 km from Belle Meade. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

More

Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00409431 (Warner Park). Public domain.