Prosperity Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Little Mtn. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around March 22 and the first fall freeze around November 11, a growing season of about 234 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 3, first November 1
- Median at 32°F
- last March 22, first November 11
- Median at 28°F
- last March 10, first November 26
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 18 |
| 32°F | Apr 7 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 3 |
| 28°F | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 | Feb 24 | Feb 15 |
| 24°F | Mar 17 | Mar 10 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 23 | Feb 17 | Feb 9 | Feb 2 | Jan 24 |
| 20°F | Mar 5 | Feb 27 | Feb 17 | Feb 10 | Feb 1 | Jan 28 | Jan 22 | Jan 15 | Jan 5 |
| 16°F | Feb 26 | Feb 13 | Feb 4 | Jan 31 | Jan 27 | Jan 19 | Jan 14 | Jan 8 | Jan 1 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 19 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 |
| 32°F | Oct 29 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 30 |
| 28°F | Nov 6 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 | Dec 24 |
| 24°F | Nov 20 | Nov 30 | Dec 4 | Dec 10 | Dec 17 | Dec 23 | Dec 30 | Jan 5 | Jan 15 |
| 20°F | Dec 5 | Dec 14 | Dec 23 | Dec 29 | Jan 2 | Jan 7 | Jan 13 | Jan 19 | Feb 1 |
| 16°F | Dec 18 | Dec 30 | Jan 3 | Jan 8 | Jan 13 | Jan 17 | Jan 24 | Jan 30 | Feb 11 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 233 | 225 | 220 | 215 | 212 | 208 | 204 | 199 | 192 |
| 32°F | 261 | 252 | 244 | 239 | 234 | 229 | 224 | 218 | 212 |
| 28°F | 295 | 283 | 276 | 269 | 262 | 255 | 249 | 242 | 232 |
| 24°F | 331 | 320 | 310 | 303 | 295 | 289 | 281 | 272 | 262 |
| 20°F | 365 | 353 | 343 | 334 | 328 | 319 | 311 | 303 | 292 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 356 | 346 | 336 | 328 | 312 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 99% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 90% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 61% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 2,578
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 2,012
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 8,683
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 7,043
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 5,542
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 4,198
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 3,018
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 621 | 1 | 61 |
| February | 469 | 3 | 84 |
| March | 329 | 17 | 212 |
| April | 121 | 73 | 408 |
| May | 24 | 213 | 654 |
| June | 1 | 384 | 832 |
| July | 0 | 493 | 958 |
| August | 0 | 450 | 914 |
| September | 9 | 283 | 724 |
| October | 111 | 82 | 440 |
| November | 345 | 11 | 172 |
| December | 548 | 3 | 82 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 11 km from Prosperity. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00385200 (Little Mtn). Public domain.