Silver Creek climate

Silver Creek Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Dunkirk Chautauqua AP, 10.3 km from Silver Creek, elevation 666 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Dunkirk Chautauqua AP. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around May 5 and the first fall freeze around October 20, a growing season of about 167 days.

Median at 36°F
last May 15, first October 8
Median at 32°F
last May 5, first October 20
Median at 28°F
last April 24, first November 2

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FMay 27May 24May 20May 18May 15May 12May 8May 4Apr 30
32°FMay 20May 15May 11May 8May 5May 1Apr 29Apr 26Apr 22
28°FMay 9May 4Apr 30Apr 27Apr 24Apr 21Apr 18Apr 14Apr 9
24°FApr 25Apr 20Apr 17Apr 14Apr 10Apr 7Apr 4Apr 1Mar 28
20°FApr 12Apr 6Apr 3Mar 31Mar 30Mar 27Mar 24Mar 20Mar 15
16°FMar 31Mar 29Mar 26Mar 23Mar 20Mar 17Mar 14Mar 10Mar 4

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FSep 26Sep 30Oct 3Oct 5Oct 8Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17Oct 22
32°FOct 5Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17Oct 20Oct 24Oct 27Oct 31Nov 4
28°FOct 16Oct 23Oct 27Oct 31Nov 2Nov 5Nov 8Nov 12Nov 17
24°FOct 31Nov 4Nov 8Nov 12Nov 15Nov 19Nov 23Nov 28Dec 4
20°FNov 9Nov 15Nov 20Nov 24Nov 28Dec 1Dec 5Dec 9Dec 17
16°FNov 20Nov 26Dec 1Dec 5Dec 9Dec 14Dec 18Dec 24Jan 1

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F164158153149146142138133126
32°F187181177172167163159154148
28°F211204199195190186182177168
24°F242234228223218213208202196
20°F267259253248243239233228221
16°F288281275270266261256251243

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
100% of years
28°F or colder
100% of years
24°F or colder
100% of years
20°F or colder
100% of years
16°F or colder
100% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
6,411
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
534
Growing degree days, base 40°F
4,699
Growing degree days, base 45°F
3,576
Growing degree days, base 50°F
2,601
Growing degree days, base 55°F
1,763
Growing degree days, base 60°F
1,066

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January1,18602
February1,06402
March961013
April598359
May28526239
June67100483
July12188642
August18153600
September12155386
October4049141
November698030
December99805

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 10.3 km from Silver Creek. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

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Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USW00014747 (Dunkirk Chautauqua AP). Public domain.