Waterville Valley Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Waterville Valley Nepp. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 15 and the first fall freeze around September 28, a growing season of about 134 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 29, first September 16
- Median at 32°F
- last May 15, first September 28
- Median at 28°F
- last May 2, first October 9
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 11 | Jun 6 | Jun 3 | May 31 | May 29 | May 26 | May 23 | May 20 | May 16 |
| 32°F | May 29 | May 25 | May 21 | May 18 | May 15 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 3 |
| 28°F | May 14 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 |
| 24°F | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 |
| 20°F | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 2 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 |
| 16°F | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 21 | Mar 17 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 4 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 14 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 30 |
| 32°F | Sep 13 | Sep 18 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 11 |
| 28°F | Sep 26 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 29 |
| 24°F | Oct 9 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 10 |
| 20°F | Oct 24 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 |
| 16°F | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 20 | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 5 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 127 | 121 | 117 | 113 | 110 | 107 | 103 | 97 | 90 |
| 32°F | 150 | 145 | 140 | 137 | 134 | 129 | 126 | 122 | 115 |
| 28°F | 177 | 170 | 166 | 162 | 158 | 155 | 151 | 146 | 141 |
| 24°F | 209 | 202 | 198 | 193 | 189 | 184 | 179 | 174 | 167 |
| 20°F | 233 | 227 | 222 | 218 | 214 | 211 | 207 | 202 | 195 |
| 16°F | 252 | 246 | 242 | 238 | 235 | 231 | 227 | 222 | 217 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 8,558
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 160
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,343
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,420
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,634
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 980
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 476
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,497 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,313 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,193 | 0 | 0 |
| April | 767 | 0 | 13 |
| May | 428 | 5 | 107 |
| June | 159 | 25 | 321 |
| July | 48 | 68 | 485 |
| August | 79 | 46 | 432 |
| September | 255 | 15 | 235 |
| October | 619 | 1 | 37 |
| November | 924 | 0 | 4 |
| December | 1,276 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 1.1 km from Waterville Valley. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00278961 (Waterville Valley Nepp). Public domain.