Carmel Valley Village Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Carmel Valley. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around February 20 and the first fall freeze around December 8, a growing season of about 294 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 13, first November 17
- Median at 32°F
- last February 20, first December 8
- Median at 28°F
- last January 3, first December 22
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 12 | May 1 | Apr 25 | Apr 18 | Apr 13 | Apr 7 | Apr 2 | Mar 26 | Mar 13 |
| 32°F | Mar 27 | Mar 13 | Mar 5 | Feb 27 | Feb 20 | Feb 10 | Jan 31 | Jan 18 | Jan 3 |
| 28°F | Feb 16 | Jan 28 | Jan 17 | Jan 11 | Jan 3 | Dec 30 | Dec 25 | Dec 18 | Dec 6 |
| 24°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 20°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 9 |
| 32°F | Nov 14 | Nov 22 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 19 | Dec 29 | Jan 16 |
| 28°F | Nov 27 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 17 | Dec 22 | Dec 27 | Jan 1 | Jan 9 | Jan 27 |
| 24°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 20°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 256 | 242 | 232 | 224 | 217 | 209 | 201 | 193 | 183 |
| 32°F | 343 | 330 | 318 | 306 | 294 | 286 | 276 | 265 | 250 |
| 28°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 361 | 353 | 345 | 334 | 320 |
| 24°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 98% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 55% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 9% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 0% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 0% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 2,730
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 292
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,689
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,887
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,207
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,802
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 825
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 417 | 0 | 96 |
| February | 356 | 0 | 98 |
| March | 336 | 1 | 150 |
| April | 283 | 6 | 178 |
| May | 211 | 13 | 267 |
| June | 116 | 30 | 365 |
| July | 55 | 47 | 457 |
| August | 52 | 56 | 468 |
| September | 62 | 82 | 469 |
| October | 121 | 51 | 396 |
| November | 288 | 6 | 182 |
| December | 432 | 0 | 81 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 4.7 km from Carmel Valley Village. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00041534 (Carmel Valley). Public domain.