South Van Horn Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Fairbanks Midtown. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 13 and the first fall freeze around September 10, a growing season of about 119 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 24, first August 31
- Median at 32°F
- last May 13, first September 10
- Median at 28°F
- last May 5, first September 20
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 4 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 27 | May 24 | May 21 | May 18 | May 15 | May 11 |
| 32°F | May 28 | May 22 | May 18 | May 15 | May 13 | May 11 | May 8 | May 6 | May 3 |
| 28°F | May 17 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 5 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 |
| 24°F | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 |
| 20°F | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 |
| 16°F | Apr 28 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 12 | Apr 10 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Aug 19 | Aug 24 | Aug 26 | Aug 29 | Aug 31 | Sep 1 | Sep 4 | Sep 8 | Sep 12 |
| 32°F | Aug 28 | Sep 1 | Sep 4 | Sep 7 | Sep 10 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 23 |
| 28°F | Sep 5 | Sep 11 | Sep 15 | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 |
| 24°F | Sep 15 | Sep 20 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 |
| 20°F | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 19 |
| 16°F | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 114 | 109 | 105 | 101 | 98 | 95 | 92 | 87 | 82 |
| 32°F | 136 | 130 | 126 | 122 | 119 | 115 | 112 | 108 | 102 |
| 28°F | 154 | 149 | 145 | 140 | 137 | 134 | 131 | 126 | 120 |
| 24°F | 171 | 165 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 150 | 147 | 142 | 135 |
| 20°F | 186 | 180 | 176 | 172 | 169 | 166 | 162 | 158 | 151 |
| 16°F | 196 | 191 | 186 | 184 | 180 | 177 | 174 | 170 | 164 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 13,140
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 70
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 2,430
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 1,698
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,070
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 581
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 247
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 2,219 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,738 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,607 | 0 | 0 |
| April | 923 | 0 | 5 |
| May | 461 | 1 | 92 |
| June | 148 | 28 | 334 |
| July | 100 | 32 | 397 |
| August | 270 | 9 | 214 |
| September | 599 | 0 | 26 |
| October | 1,192 | 0 | 2 |
| November | 1,789 | 0 | 0 |
| December | 2,094 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 2.7 km from South Van Horn. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00502970 (Fairbanks Midtown). Public domain.