Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
358 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally cooler and drier conditions expected this week, though
isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are possible today and Monday in
our eastern zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

The Four Corners area of high pressure that brought extreme
temperatures and isolated showers and thunderstorms to the region
last week has shifted eastward thanks to troughing over the western
United States. There remains 0.75 - 1.00 inches of PWAT over the
region, with greater values in our eastern zones including Mohave
County and eastern Lincoln County. As a result, with daytime
heating, there is a 20 percent chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms over eastern Mohave County this afternoon, with
greater chances further east. Some high-resolution convective
allowing models continue to show a complex forming over La Pax and
Yavapai counties this evening, with a corresponding outflow boundary
pushing into the Mojave Desert. Should this come to fruition, the
outflow boundary will bring a moisture flux as well as 250-500 J/kg
of CAPE along with it, which will return chances of shower and
thunderstorm development over Mohave, eastern San Bernardino, and
eastern Clark counties tonight in addition to gusty winds. Monday
afternoon, chances of showers and thunderstorms return, as moisture
remains over the region and a shortwave pushes into the southern
Great Basin. Forecast HRRR soundings show over 2500 J/kg of CAPE
over Mohave County Monday afternoon, with SPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook highlighting the county with a "Slight" and areas further
north with a "Moderate". Tuesday onward, moisture is scoured out of
the region thanks to dry southwest flow aloft. The aforementioned
troughing over the region will allow temperatures to drop below-
normal for early September with gusty southwesterly afternoons.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy
southwesterly winds will continue into the early evening, with
occasional gusts to 25 knots likely through sunset. South to
southwest winds will persist overnight, although the gustiness
should subside by late evening. Similar wind patterns are expected
Monday, except the southerly gusts may begin earlier around 16Z. VFR
conditions will prevail through Monday with any cloud bases
remaining 12kft AGL or higher. Convection through the remainder of
the afternoon will remain well east of the terminal area over
northwest Arizona. Greater convective coverage is expected Monday,
but once again the majority should remain east of the terminal area
and mainly affect approaches from the east. Temperatures should
remain below 100F through at least midweek.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Outside of the western
Mojave Desert, where winds will favor a more westerly direction
through Monday, southerly to southwesterly winds will continue
across the region into this evening. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots
will be common through sunset, with lighter winds developing
thereafter. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with
FEW to SCT high clouds AOA 10kft AGL passing across the region. A
few isolated thunderstorms will continue over far eastern portions
of the region into this evening, but no convection is expected to
directly impact area terminals. An increase in convection is likely
Monday, but once again most of the activity will be over western
Arizona and not directly impact area terminals.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter