Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1209 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered storms continue for the next several days
  with greatest coverage north and east of Las Vegas.

* Near-normal high temperatures persist with warm overnight lows
  thanks to monsoon moisture.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

Looks like a rinse-and-repeat forecast over the next several days in
terms of monsoon convection. Moisture stays in place with PWATs
staying in the 1.25"-1.60" range, which is supportive of
showers/storms each day. However, as is often the case in the
monsoon, it is best to take a day-by-day approach as lingering
morning convection and cloud debris can suppress the afternoon
environment in spots. Generally speaking, the favored initiation
points will be the mountains/plateaus of southeastern NV,
northwestern AZ, and eastern San Bernardino County as this is where
the best overlap of moisture and orographic lift exists. During the
late afternoon and evening, storms may move into the valleys, but
this is far from a guarantee in places like Las Vegas and the lower
Colorado River Valley. Main thunderstorm hazards will be flash
flooding and strong outflow winds, which can travel far from their
parent storm.

On the temperature side, expecting highs to remain with ~5 degrees
of climatology throughout the forecast period. Those lucky enough to
get precipitation in the early afternoon will likely end up below
normal, while places farther west are expected remain near or
slightly above normal thanks to less cloud/precipitation coverage.
On the other hand, all of this moisture and convective cloud debris
will tend to keep overnight lows on the warm side with values 5-12
degrees above normal. On top of that, it'll feel rather muggy for
Desert Southwest standards. HeatRisk largely remains in the Moderate
Category (level 2 of 4).

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Lower
confidence TAF forecast due to potential monsoon activity and
outflow boundaries impacting the area after 00z. Winds have remained
light and VRB this morning and should remain this way through at
least 21z when a more S direction should set up. However even after
21z winds still may be VRB at times from SE-SSW with gusts to 20 kts
increasing toward 00z. As convection develops around the valley
after 00Z, winds may become erratic and depend on thunderstorm
activity. Favored a south wind in the afternoon with gusts up to
20KT outside of thunderstorm influence. Higher gusts and brief heavy
rain are possible if storms develop closer to the valley. Due to
consistency in hi-res guidance showing a potential gust front coming
in from the E-NE, added more detail in the 03-07z timeframe to add
VRB gusty winds due to storms and outflow boundaries. Kept cigs VFR,
however sub-vfr cigs are possible briefly if a storm comes directly
overhead. Overall confidence in timing of storms and outflow
boundaries is low as nothing has developed yet upstream, but will
monitor activity through the day and update the TAF accordingly.
Confidence should increase as upstream convection develops and a
better assessment of movement and timing of these storms can be
done. After 07Z, winds may still be VRB at times but with more of an
easterly component at 8-10KT through Friday morning. Expect a
similar set up for Friday with VRB winds in the morning becoming SSE-
SSW in the afternoon with increasing gusts. Monsoonal activity
expected once again after 22z Friday in the vicinity of the Valley
with additional impacts from gust fronts and storms possible.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Outside of convection,
expect light winds favoring the south to southeast today. Breezy
southeast winds will develop at KBIH this afternoon with gusts over
20 KT through sunset. KDAG will see gusty west winds developing
around 00Z after lighter W to NW winds much of the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon,
mainly in the terrain of far southern and eastern Nevada into
western Arizona. Any storms may contain lightning, sudden gusty
outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs below 10kft. Storms in
Mohave County may cause an east or southeast outflow that pushes
through the Colorado River Valley tonight, which could trigger
additional thunderstorms in or around KEED and KIFP overnight. Some
models also show storms with gusty outflow winds around KDAG around
21Z this afternoon, but confidence in this developing is low. Storms
may linger in southern Nevada longer than the past few days, not
ending until 09Z, which is reflected in the KIFP and KEED TAFs.
Outside of precipitation, CIGs should remain at or above 15kft. A
similar set up is expected for Friday with monsoon activity ramping
up after 21z and possibly lasting into the late evening hours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Moore

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter