Tornado Warning 7, NWS Rapid City, SD

288 
WWUS53 KUNR 290942
SVSUNR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
442 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

SDC121-290952-
/O.CAN.KUNR.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260629T1000Z/
Todd SD-
442 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL TODD COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. A Severe Thunderstorm
Warning still remains in effect for north central Todd County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT Monday
for a portion of south central South Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4339 10081 4359 10087 4372 10043 4372 10041
      4373 10041 4373 10038 4367 10035 4366 10034
      4346 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 247DEG 37KT 4349 10084

$$


SDC095-291000-
/O.CON.KUNR.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260629T1000Z/
Mellette SD-
442 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MELLETTE COUNTY...

At 442 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Horse Creek, or near White River, moving northeast
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
  Horse Creek, Swift Bear, White River, Wood, Butte Creek and Mosher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building
away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself
from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4339 10081 4359 10087 4372 10043 4372 10041
      4373 10041 4373 10038 4367 10035 4366 10034
      4346 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 239DEG 17KT 4350 10078

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

$$

Calderon

012 
WWUS53 KUNR 290956
SVSUNR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
456 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

SDC095-291006-
/O.EXP.KUNR.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260629T1000Z/
Mellette SD-
456 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...TORNADO WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MELLETTE
COUNTY...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
allowed to expire. However, large hail and damaging winds remain
likely and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the
area.

If you observed a tornado, hail, wind damage, or flooding, please
report your observations to the National Weather Service office in
Rapid City via phone, email, or social media, as soon as it is safe
to do so.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT Monday
for a portion of south central South Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4339 10081 4359 10087 4372 10043 4372 10041
      4373 10041 4373 10038 4367 10035 4366 10034
      4346 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0942Z 240DEG 17KT 4354 10069

$$

KSmith

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1059 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds expected
  overnight across western SD, mostly east of the Black Hills.

- Strong winds expected Monday, with elevated to near-critical
  fire weather conditions.

- Cooler Monday, but gradual warmup through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for portions of our
south-central South Dakota plains overnight. Very strong deep-
layer shear in excess of 65kts will favor supercells, and while a
shallow stable layer may be present at the surface suggesting
storms may be elevated, very thick mid-level CAPE profiles in
forecast soundings with over 3,000 J/kg MUCAPE possible will
support a very large hail threat. Convection may also be enhanced
by gravity waves increasing a damaging wind threat with time,
with some HRRR and RRFS guidance hinting at gusts over 80 MPH in
far eastern portions of our CWA. A non-zero tornado risk exists as
well with notable SRH, but the elevated nature of the storms may
keep this risk low. Will also be watching for swaths of very heavy
rain with storm training, with localized flash flooding not
impossible...especially if storms train over areas that saw
significant rainfall last night in our southern/eastern counties.
Largely went with NBM and WPC guidance in the forecast, but
adjusted PoPs and QPF to better match current radar trends and the
new 00z HREF suite including CAMs. Breezy conditions remain
expected Monday, and no changes were made to the ongoing WIND
ADVISORY. These winds, along with minimum afternoon RH values of
12-18 percent, may support near-critical fire weather conditions
especially from the Weston County area into the far southwestern
South Dakota plains. Some areas have seen recent rainfall but may
still carry critical fuels...confidence remains just low enough
that we will continue to monitor these conditions and not issue a
Red Flag Warning with this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show the upper low
currently over north central MT, with southwest flow over the
forecast area. 17Z Surface analysis shows a boundary running from
northwestern SD down into southeastern WY. Winds are currently
light out of the south to southwest. Radar has some light returns
in northwestern SD moving northeast into ND.

Main concern in the near-term will be potential for severe
thunderstorms tonight into Monday morning. Mostly dry conditions are
expected this afternoon, but southeasterly LLJ ramps up this evening
into the overnight hours, bringing moisture into the region. Surface
low is expected to develop over northeastern CO and move
northeastward into the area by tonight. As low enters the region and
LLJ increases, strong to severe storms are expected to develop.
While we could see some showers/storms develop in the early evening,
HREF and HRRR show the stronger storms starting up between 03-06Z.
CAMS currently show strong to severe storms developing in
southwestern SD and the Black hills in this timeframe, then moving
northeast. Thermal profiles will support elevated storms with hail
being the main threat from these, however strong to severe wind
gusts cannot be ruled out.

Monday will be dry but windy, as strong mixing will support wind
gusts 45 to 55 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of
western SD, including the foothills late morning into the early
evening. Another shortwave is progged to move through the
central/northern plains late Tuesday into Wednesday, supporting
the potential for some showers/storms. Southwest flow continues
though the week, with weak disturbances prompting near daily
chances for at least isolated precipitation the latter half of the
week. Upper high in southeastern CONUS also builds over the week,
supporting a gradual warmup. Temperatures climbing into the 90s
will be possible Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1054 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Strong thunderstorms are making their way north out of NE and
into southwestern SD. Some isolated storms may impact KRAP through
the night. As the storms exit western SD early Monday morning,
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Strong
winds are expected across the area Monday afternoon (widespread
35+ mph), particularly in southwestern SD. The strongest gusts may
be up to 55 mph. These will mellow out after sunset Monday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for SDZ012-013-
     025>027-030-031-041-042-072>076.
WY...None.
&&

UPDATE...KSmith
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Schweigert

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
231 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     Hail             2 WSW Batesland         43.11N 102.15W
06/29/2026  E2.50 inch       Oglala Lakota      SD   Public

            Reported in the Wakpamani area. Time estimated based on
            radar.

&&

KSmith

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
252 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNE Harrington        43.21N 101.23W
06/29/2026  M60 mph          Bennett            SD   Mesonet

&&

KSmith

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
257 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNE Harrington        43.21N 101.23W
06/29/2026  M83 mph          Bennett            SD   Mesonet

&&

KSmith

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
301 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 SW Parmelee          43.23N 101.20W
06/29/2026  M83 mph          Todd               SD   Dept of Highways

&&

KSmith

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
322 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 SW Parmelee          43.23N 101.20W
06/29/2026  M51 mph          Todd               SD   Dept of Highways

&&

KSmith