Tornado Warning 4, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
145 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into this
  evening across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and southwest SD.

- Temperatures at or below-normal, with highs in the 60s to mid
  70s, through Thursday. Friday and the weekend look warmer with
  high temps in the 80s.

- Another round of passing showers and thunderstorms likely
  Wednesday into Thursday. Isolated severe storms possible on
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows zonal, west-to-east, flow over the
area. Showers, with a few brief thunderstorms, have popped up
today but the atmosphere hasn’t been primed well so these have
been dying off quickly. That is expected to change going into the
later afternoon and evening.

For later this afternoon through tonight, thunderstorm
development is likely in northeast Wyoming this afternoon. Storms
that develop could produce large hail and strong wind gusts. After
the storms develop, they are expected to track east to
southeastward through the evening. Continued storm development and
propagation through the SD plains will be due to a passing cold
front that will swing through from the north. Overnight
thunderstorms should be below the severe thresholds but locally
gusty winds with moderate to heavy rainfall is likely.

For Tuesday, the previously mentioned cold front will finish
making it’s way through the area, taking most of the precip
chances with it. Can’t rule out the short-lived shower or storm
over the Black Hills during the heat of the day though. Highs
tomorrow will be in the 60s to low 70s with a breezy northwest
wind at around 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 to 30 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday, another round of passing thunderstorms is
possible. Wednesday’s precip would initiate farther south and
drift into the CWA while Thursday’s storms could initiate in the
CWA. Storm mode would probably support more severe elevated storms
with strong winds being the main concern for now. Still zonal
flow aloft with plenty of bulk shear available. Projected CAPE
values could be a little limiting in terms of widespread severe
weather, but with the upslope nature of the topography and with
enough wind at the mid and upper levels, a slight risk has been
issue for parts northwest Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota
for Thursday.

Friday and the weekend, zonal flow weakens and shifts to out of
the southwest. This continues the thunderstorms chances but it
looks more organized and centered around a passing upper level low
from the Pacific Northwest. With this pattern change still being
several days out, there is still a lot of uncertainty, but for
now, the bulk of the activity looks to be to the north of the
Rapid City CWA. Worth checking in for updates through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1121 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

MVFR ceilings will linger across the western SD plains this
afternoon, with improvement to VFR at KRAP after 18z. Another
round of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
especially over NE WY in far SW SD. Thunderstorm chances will
continue overnight into Tuesday morning. In addition, widespread
MVFR- IFR ceilings are expected behind a cool front as it sags
into the region late tonight after 23/08-10z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...SE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
904 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Rain             5 WSW Colome            43.23N  99.79W
06/22/2026  M0.59 inch       Tripp              SD   CoCoRaHS

            24-hour rainfall.

0700 AM     Rain             19 NNE Creighton        44.50N 102.04W
06/22/2026  M0.60 inch       Pennington         SD   CoCoRaHS

            24-hour rainfall.

&&

SE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
919 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Rain             6 SW Beulah             44.48N 104.17W
06/22/2026  M0.50 inch       Crook              WY   CoCoRaHS

            24-hour rainfall.

&&

SE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1003 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Rain             Hot Springs             43.44N 103.47W
06/21/2026  M0.74 inch       Fall River         SD   Co-Op Observer

            24-hour rainfall.

1258 AM     Rain             Mount Rushmore          43.88N 103.45W
06/22/2026  M0.69 inch       Pennington         SD   Co-Op Observer

            24-hour rainfall.

0700 AM     Rain             4 NE Wood               43.55N 100.43W
06/22/2026  M0.65 inch       Mellette           SD   CoCoRaHS

            24-hour rainfall.

&&

SE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1004 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Rain             5 ENE Custer            43.80N 103.52W
06/22/2026  M0.51 inch       Custer             SD   CoCoRaHS

            24-hour rainfall.

0700 AM     Rain             1 N Red Owl             44.72N 102.55W
06/22/2026  M0.72 inch       Meade              SD   CoCoRaHS

            24-hour rainfall.

&&

SE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
134 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Rain             6 WSW Opal              44.87N 102.57W
06/22/2026  M0.69 inch       Meade              SD   CoCoRaHS

            24-hour rainfall.

&&

SE

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