Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
242 PM MST Sat Jul 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue for the next week
along with daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

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.DISCUSSION...Ahh the monsoon. It never fails that what looks
like an active day 24 to 48 hours out in the model world ends
up to be much less. Today is a good example as drier air has
punched in from the east with no storms on radar as of 230 pm.
The CAMs are also been struggling today. Although its been a
slow start to the convection, still looking at widely scattered
storms developing in the 3-5 pm with generally movement to the
west northwest into this evening. Main threat from any storm
will be strong gusty winds, brief heavy rain and blowing dust.

Enough moisture will be around for the next 7 days for daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms with day-to-day variability
on areal coverage of storms.

High temperatures so far this afternoon have been in the upper
90s east to the 109 lower deserts. Extreme Heat Warning remains
in effect until 8 pm this evening. Slightly cooler tomorrow
with above normal high temperatures continuing all next week
with the end of next week seeing highs like we have seen
yesterday and today.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
Widely SCTD -SHRA/TS with SCTD to lcly BKN 8k-12k ft AGL thru
26/05z then again aft 26/20z. Any thunderstorm may produce
strong and erratic wind gusts, with a chance of a severe wind
gust. Otrw SFC winds NWLY 5-10 kts with ocnl gusts to 18 kts
thru 26/04z then again aft 26/20z. Vrbl winds less than 8 kts at
other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

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.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain well above normal
for the next week. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms into this evening. Expect daily chances of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will day-to-day
variability on coverage of storms. Any thunderstorm will bring
a threat of severe, erratic wind gusts as well as brief heavy
rainfall and an isolated threat of flash flooding. Minimum
relative humidity values will increase from 15-20 percent in
desert location and 30-40 percent in the mountains today to
above 20-40 percent Sunday through mid-week next week. Winds
this weekend will mainly be light and under 12 mph outside of
thunderstorms.

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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for
  AZZ501>509.

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