Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1237 PM MST Sun Jun 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Increased moisture will continue to result in
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily
from Tucson south and eastward through Monday, then mostly along
the Int'l border and White Mountains through Friday. Otherwise,
breezy afternoons with temperatures near normal through the
forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have already formed over most of
the Sky Islands. Moisture is firmly in place with GOES 19 Total
Precipitable Water ranging from 1.4" in western Pima County to
an inch along the AZ/NM border. Aloft high pressure is centered
to the south with a trough moving through the Rockies. SPC
mesoscale analysis shows most of the cap has eroded with MLCAPE
values around 500 J/kg and values expected to increase to around
1000 J/kg. Lift will be provided by the higher terrain and
later by possible outflow collisions. All the ingredients are in
place for thunderstorm development this afternoon into the
evening.

Initially, the HREF and REFS give the best chances for storms
over the higher terrain south and east of Tucson. Then late this
afternoon into the evening storms expand in coverage into the
valley and possibly north into Tucson and the Tohono O'odham
Nation along outflows. Storms will be capable of strong gusty
winds with the 14/12Z HREF showing 40-km neighborhood
probabilities of 30 kts above 70 percent from Tucson southward
this afternoon and evening. There is also a small area of 10
percent for 50 kts over Tucson, southern Pinal County, and the
Tohono O'odham Nation this evening. If this scenario plays out
this could lead to blowing dust issues along I-10 between Casa
Grande and Tucson. Storms will also be capable of brief heavy
rainfall with rain rates 0.5"-1.0" per hour possible.

Monday looks like it could play out similarly to today and
maybe even have greater coverage of storms. Plenty of
instability and moisture will be in place along with some drying
in the mid-levels, which could enhance downdrafts. HREF and
REFS initially show storm development again over Santa Cruz and
Cochise Counties early in the afternoon with coverage extending
into central Pima County and Graham County as well as the White
Mountains. The 30 knot HREF probabilities also cover a larger
area from central Pima County eastward with a large area of 10
percent for 50 kts from Pinal County through central and eastern
Pima County down to the international border. Because of this
some storms will likely be capable of severe wind gusts. Brief
heavy rainfall and blowing dust from outflows will also be a
threat.

Tuesday into the end of the work week mid-level winds turn more
westerly as the high consolidates to the west and troughing
stays to the northeast over the Rockies and Great Plains. This
drops PWAT values some, but will still be high enough for daily
thunderstorm chances mainly over an area south of I-10 and east
of I-19. Storms will likely be isolated but still capable of
strong outflow winds thanks to dry low levels and some mid level
entrainment. There could be an uptick in activity Wednesday or
Thursday with storm chances expanding further north possibly
into Tucson. But confidence is low at this time in this scenario.

By the weekend PWATs will be back below an inch and rain chances
stay below 10 percent. Outside of the storms winds will be
breezy each afternoon in Graham and Greenlee Counties through
Thursday with the strongest winds in the Gila River Valley.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in the Gila
River Valley Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be around
normal through Wednesday then a degree or two below normal
Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 8k-12k ft AGL and AOA 18k ft AGL through the
forecast period. Expect isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA from
Tucson south and eastward, initially over the higher terrain
then expanding in coverage along outflows. Storms could
potentially impact KDUG and KOLS this afternoon and KTUS after
15/00Z. Expect another round of TSRA Monday afternoon and
evening. Main threats will be gusty outflow winds 25-40 kts with
these storms. Otherwise, SFC winds WLY/NWLY 7-12 kts gusting to
20 kts, with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD this afternoon and
evening. SFC winds diminish to 10 kts or less again aft 15/04Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will remain west/northwest through this
week with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 22 mph across much of
the area with stronger speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph
in lower elevations of Graham county. Moisture levels will
remain elevated over the next couple of days, with minimum
relative humidity 15-30 percent in lower elevations and 30-40
percent in the mountains. This will bring bring chances (20-60
percent) for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
evening mainly from Tucson south and eastward with brief heavy
rain under the storm cores along with gusty outflow winds and
lightning. A similar setup on Monday with storm chances from
Tucson south and eastward, then focused along the Int'l border
from Nogales eastward through the middle of the week. For
Wednesday and Thursday elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions will be possible in the Gila River Valley as winds
increase and RH drops below 15 percent.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hardin

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