Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1231 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
  evening with a threat of heavy rainfall and strong outflow
  winds.

- Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue through the week
  with increasing moisture Thursday and Friday bringing more
  widespread chances. Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
  Thursday and Friday, raising the risk for flash flooding.

- High temperatures will sit just below normal through mid-week
  with before cooling further by the end of the week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be thunderstorm chances each afternoon and
evening through the coming week with day to day variability in
location and severity, with more widespread chances for showers
and thunderstorms forecast Thursday and Friday. Scattered
thunderstorms today will bring a threat of heavy rainfall and
strong wind gusts. High temperatures will sit just below normal
through mid-week before cooling further by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The atmosphere has a healthy amount of moisture across the
region. Precipitable water content range from 1.80 inches in
Phoenix to 1.30 inches in southeast Cochise County based on the
latest satellite imagery. Thunderstorms are firing up across the
region with a storm motion of westerly. With the abundant
moisture in place and the CAPE values rising up to 2700 J/kg by
the afternoon, the main threat today will be flash flooding due
to the heavy rainfall. The secondary threat will be gusty
outflows. HREF models indicate 5-20% for gusts greater than 35
mph this afternoon.

Tomorrow: The upper pattern flow will switch from the northeast,
bringing energy down from the White Mountains into the valleys.
There will be drier air in the upper levels to support robust
thunderstorms. The HREF probabilities for strong gusty winds
increases; highest areas (greater than 50%) will be the line
from Tucson to Safford and northwest. The shift of threats
become wind as the main threat with secondary threat of flash
flooding. Localize blowing dust is possible.

Thursday and Friday: An easterly wave will be moving into the
region, enhancing the thunderstorm activity for the region. This
will keep and even nudge precipitable water content up through
this period. Ensemble models has Tucson near the 95th percentile
by Thursday. Chances for 24 hour rainfall amounts greater than
0.75 inches will increase by the afternoon into the late night.
NBM chances has 45% in the Catalinas, 45% in Sierra Vista, and
up to 63% in Nogales. Areas along the Mogollon Rim has over 70%
chances for 0.75 inches. WPC has highlighted a Slight Risk (15%)
for Excessive Rainfall and therefore elevating the risk for
flash flooding. Especially when the soils are becoming more
saturated since the weekend. Friday has the same indicators but
the upper level flow slows down and potentially kinking the
thunderstorm growth, or also known as clouded over. Details will
still need to be worked as we closer and allow for more model
runs to come in.

Weekend: Monsoon pattern will continue with daily chances for
thunderstorms. The high pressure center will stay near the Four
Corners, continuing the easterly flow across the region.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 16/00Z.
SCT-BKN ceilings 10k-15k through the afternoon and late
evening. Scattered thunderstorm redevelopment expected after
14/19Z and again after 15/19Z. Thunderstorm activity diminishes
after 15/03Z. Heavy rainfall, mountain obscurations, and erratic
strong wind gusts 35-40 kts possible with any thunderstorm.
Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds generally light and
under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the coming week with day to
day variability. More widespread chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. Minimum
relative humidity 25-30 percent in the lower desert locations
and above 40 percent in the mountains this week. Winds this week
will remain mainly light and under 15 mph, though strong and
erratic winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
132 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     Flash Flood      6 ESE Tucson            32.18N 110.79W
07/14/2026                   Pima               AZ   Broadcast Media

            Swift water rescue around 1205 AM. The
            Pantano Wash upstream at Houghton Rd had
            around 500-715 cfs.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
139 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     Flash Flood      6 ESE Tucson            32.18N 110.79W
07/14/2026                   Pima               AZ   Broadcast Media

            Corrects previous flash flood report from 6
            ESE Tucson. Swift water rescue around 1205
            AM. The Pantano Wash upstream at Houghton Rd
            had around 500-715 cfs. The road was closed
            at 630 PM the previous night.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
417 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     14 E Dudleyville        32.94N 110.49W
07/14/2026  M54 MPH          Pinal              AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station QHRA3 Horse Camp gusted to
            54 mph. Time estimated by radar.

&&

JVT