Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
216 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon pattern ramps up as early as today and settles
in through the weekend with daily thunderstorm chances. High
temperatures will remain well above normal through the week with an
Extreme Heat Warning in effect for much of southeast Arizona.
Temperatures are forecast to fall to near normal Sunday through
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently, storms are beginning to form in the Sky Islands
across Southeastern Arizona. Through this afternoon and evening
storms will move off the terrain into the valleys and move West
to Northwest at 10-15 kts. Main impacts from storms today are
primarily strong outflow winds at 40-60 mph that can loft areas
of blowing dust and reduce visibilities. With this modest storm
motion, flash flooding will be isolated and mainly limited to
backbuilding/training thunderstorms across the area.

Looking at tomorrow, it will all depend on how strong and
widespread the thunderstorm activity we see today. Some CAMs
like the HRRR is more ambitious with scattered thunderstorms
across much of Southeastern Arizona, but if the area is worked
over enough from the activity today, that will keep much of the
stronger storm activity at a minimum. If there are storms,
hazards will be similar to today with the stronger wind gusts,
then flash flooding.

This weekend continues to look more active, but still unclear
which day will be more impactful out of the two days. As the
area of high pressure begins to move east and trough digs down
to our west, this synoptic forcing will allow for longer lived
storms. As the upper level flow shifts SW, ample moisture will
come into the area, increasing PWs to 1.5 inches in Tucson by
Saturday. This increase in moisture will switch the primary
hazard to flash flooding.

The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Saturday with
the hottest temperatures through Friday. Temperatures will lower
to near normal levels Sunday into next week, with perhaps Monday
even coming in slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 29/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds mainly 10k-13k ft for the period with isolated
to scattered SHRA/TSRA between now thru 28/09Z and again aft
28/19Z thru the end of the period. Thunderstorms have the
potential to produce strong wind gusts, but otherwise surface
winds light and terrain driven outside of a few afternoon gusts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with an
active period expected today through Monday (30 to 70 percent
daily thunderstorm chances). Temperatures will remain well above
normal today with a cooling trend this weekend into early next
week. Minimum relative humidity values mainly 10 to 20 percent
in the valleys and 20 to 30 percent in the mountains through
Friday. Minimum RH values increase to 20 to 40 percent starting
Saturday in valleys and 30 to 50 percent in the mountains. Winds
will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven
through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501>509.

&&

JT

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 NE Nogales            31.42N 110.85W
08/27/2026  M52 MPH          Santa Cruz         AZ   ASOS

            KOLS recorded wind gust of 52 mph.

&&

JVT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
336 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     12 NW Patagonia         31.68N 110.88W
08/27/2026  M86 MPH          Santa Cruz         AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station QHPA3 Hopkins recorded wind
            gust of 86 mph.

&&

JVT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
537 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 SW Tucson             32.13N 110.95W
08/27/2026  M64 MPH          Pima               AZ   ASOS

            ASOS station KTUS Tucson International
            Airport.

&&

DVS