Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1222 PM MST Thu Jul 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through
Friday, with an increase in storm chances and coverage over the
weekend through early next week. Hot temperatures today, lowering
over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A flat ridge of high pressure will extend from the
eastern Pacific across northern Baja and into western Arizona
through Friday. Over the weekend, the ridge shifts northeast to
north of the Four Corners. The ridge continues to move northeast
early to mid next week when it will be centered over the high and
central plains. By the following weekend, the upper high shifts
westward back into the Four Corners region.

With the upper high in close proximity, Heat continues to be a
concern today, with high temperatures topping out 4-7 degrees above
normal. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 pm MST
this evening for much of Pima County, south-central and southeast
Pinal County and the Gila River Valley of Graham County. For more
information on this product, please refer to PHXNPWTWC.

Blended total precipitable water satellite imagery shows PW values
currently ranging from 0.80" in the White Mountains to 1.10"-1.25"
along the International Border. PW values will remain relatively
unchanged through Friday across the eastern half of the forecast
area, while the models forecast a gulf surge to bring in higher PW's
over the far western deserts. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm
chances today and Friday will be roughly east of a line from
Hannagan Meadow to Tucson to Nogales. The steering flow remains
northeast to southwest at 10-15 mph. The main threats today will be
gusty outflow winds to 45+ mph, blowing dust along Interstate 10 in
Cochise County, as well as brief localized heavy rainfall with the
strongest storms. The same threats exist on Friday, although wind
gust potential diminishes slightly into the 40-45 mph range.

This weekend into early next, the steering flow shifts to an east to
west direction, as the upper high becomes centered north/northeast
of the Four Corners. PW's are forecasted increase into the 1.25"-
1.50" range areawide and flash flooding will become a concern.
Thunderstorm chances/coverage increase over the weekend to include
all of southeast Arizona. In addition, the mid-level steering flow
looks favorable for the potential for some clustering of storms
and/or organized convection which could lead to an enhanced severe
threat. The active pattern continues into early next week. WPC has a
large portion of our forecast area highlighted for a Marginal Risk
of Excessive Rainfall Saturday through Monday. High temperatures
over the weekend will lower to right around normal, which is the
lower 100s in the lower deserts from Tucson westward and in the Gila
River Valley, with mid to upper 90s in the lower elevation locations
of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. By early next week, forecasted
high temperatures will lower to 1-3 degrees below normal.

By mid next week, PW's are forecasted to be in the 1.0"-1.25" range
from Tucson eastward and in 1.25"-1.50" range across the lower
deserts as the upper high shifts east into the central plains. This
pattern will still result in a favorable monsoon flow across
southeast Arizona, with the continuation of a daily chance for
showers/thunderstorms, as well as a daily risk of isolated severe
storms and/or flash flooding.

Overall, a favorable monsoon flow has arrived and looks to be in
place through at least the following weekend. There will be day to
day variability in thunderstorm chances/coverage, along with typical
monsoon hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z.
FEW-SCT (locally BKN) clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/
-TSRA. There is the potential for outflow winds up to 45 kts thru
10/04Z. Clouds and storms diminishing between 10/04Z and 10/17Z. Aft
10/19Z through the end of the forecast period, SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-
11k ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of KTUS. Outside of
any thunderstorm outflows, SFC wind generally less than 12 kts,
favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening
hours and variable in direction at other times. The exception will
be in the Gila River Valley near KSAD aft 10/19Z thru the end of the
valid period, where SFC wind will be 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) today,
with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming weekend.
Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph in the
Gila River Valley Friday afternoon/early evening. Min RH values in
the lower elevations in the 13-20 percent range through Friday,
increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend into early next week.
Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will
generally be less than 15 mph into early next week, except in the
Gila River Valley on Friday. There will be a daily chance of showers
and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours through
Friday. Increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage are expected
over the weekend through early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-
 502-504>506-509.

&&

Zell

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 E Sells               31.92N 111.85W
07/08/2026                   Pima               AZ   Trained Spotter

            Powerlines down from severe storm in Sells.
            Time estimated based on radar.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 PM MST Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Sells               31.92N 111.85W
07/08/2026                   Pima               AZ   Trained Spotter

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd dmg report
            from 1 E Sells. Powerlines down from severe
            storm in Sells. Time estimated based on
            radar.

&&

JRM