Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Tucson, AZ

822 
WWUS55 KTWC 082334
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
434 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

AZC019-090000-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260709T0000Z/
Pima AZ-
434 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST FOR
EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 434 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Saguaro
National Park East, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Tanque Verde, Saguaro National Park East, Sabino Canyon Recreation
  Area, Catalina Foothills and Seven Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 11059 3227 11051 3207 11065 3230 11090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 42DEG 11KT 3229 11059

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KJS

138 
WWUS55 KTWC 082358
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
458 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

AZC019-090008-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260709T0000Z/
Pima AZ-
458 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm. Blowing dust is also
possible.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 11059 3227 11051 3207 11065 3230 11090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 42DEG 11KT 3226 11063

$$

KJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1235 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day this week, with the potential for an increase
in storm coverage over the weekend. Hot temperatures for much
of the week before cooling off this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very little change in the forecast versus 24 hours
ago. High pressure aloft extends from west of the northern Baja
Peninsula northeast into western New Mexico. By Thursday and Friday
the upper high will shift westward when it will be centered over the
eastern Pacific through the northern Baja and into western Arizona.
Over the weekend, the monsoon high shifts northeastward to north of
the Four Corners into the central/high plains.

With the upper high nearly overhead or very close by, Heat will be a
concern through Thursday. High temperatures will top out 4-7 degrees
above normal and an Extreme Heat Warning is in now effect through 8
pm MST Thursday. The Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the much
of Pima County, south-central and southeast Pinal County and the
Gila River Valley of Graham County. Moderate HeatRisk covers much of
southeast Arizona through Thursday, with pockets of Major HeatRisk
in the warning area. For more information on this product, please
refer to PHXNPWTWC.

Precipitable Water values currently range from 0.80" along the New
Mexico state line to around 1.35" over central/western Pima County.
The higher PW values are forecasted to get shunted east/southeast of
Tucson Thursday into Friday as the upper high lifts northeast across
the state. By Saturday and Sunday, PW values increase from near 1"
in the White Mountains to between 1.3"-1.5" from Tucson southward
along the International Border. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm
chances today/tonight will be roughly east of a line from Oracle to
Sells. The steering flow remains northeast to southwest at 10-15
mph. The main threats will be gusty outflow winds to 40-45 mph,
blowing dust along Interstate 10 in both Pinal and Cochise counties
and localized heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. On Thursday
and Friday, the thunderstorm coverage will shift slightly eastward,
roughly east of a line from Safford to Tucson to Nogales.

By this weekend, the steering flow shifts to an east to west
direction, as the upper high becomes centered north/northeast of the
Four Corners. Given the forecasted increase in PW's, Flash Flooding
will become a concern. WPC has already issued an Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for Saturday (Day 4), which highlights much of southeast
Arizona in a Marginal Risk. Thunderstorm chances and coverage
increase over the weekend to include all of southeast Arizona,
including central and western Pima County. In addition, mid-level
steering flow looks favorable for the potential for some clustering
of storms and/or organized convection which could lead to an
enhanced severe threat. This active pattern then continues into the
early part of next week. High temperatures over the weekend will
lower to right around normal, which is the lower 100s in the lower
deserts from Tucson westward and in the Gila River Valley, with mid
to upper 90s in the lower elevation locations of Santa Cruz and
Cochise counties. By early next week, forecasted high temperatures
will lower to 1-3 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
FEW-SCT (locally BKN) clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/
-TSRA. There is the potential for outflow winds up to 45 kts thru
09/04Z. Clouds and storms diminishing between 09/04Z and 09/17Z. Aft
09/19Z through the end of the forecast period, SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-
11k ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of KTUS. Outside of
any thunderstorm outflows, SFC wind less than 12 kts, favoring a
WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and
variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) through
Thursday, with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming
weekend. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 13-20 percent
range through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend
into early next week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-
foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph into early next week.
There will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
during the afternoon/evening hours through Friday. There is the
potential for increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ501-502-
  504>506-509.

&&

Zell

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