Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Tucson, AZ

994 
WWUS55 KTWC 052314
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
414 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

AZC003-009-052345-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-260805T2345Z/
Cochise AZ-Graham AZ-
414 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR
NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES...

At 414 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles south of
Roper Lake State Park, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of North Central Cochise and South Central
  Graham Counties.

This includes the following highways...
Route 191 between mile markers 88 and 110. Route 266 between mile
markers 105 and 117. Interstate 10 between mile markers 348 and 362.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 10991 3270 10984 3266 10951 3231 10952
      3236 10993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 6DEG 5KT 3256 10967

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

GEL

024 
WWUS55 KTWC 052341
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
441 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

AZC003-009-052351-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-260805T2345Z/
Cochise AZ-Graham AZ-
441 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COCHISE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 10991 3270 10984 3266 10951 3231 10952
      3236 10993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 6DEG 5KT 3253 10967

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect thunderstorm activity each afternoon and
evening this week with day to day variability. Thunderstorms may
produce severe outflow winds with areas of blowing dust, as
well as locally heavy rainfall with an isolated flash flooding
risk. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows a cumulus field over
central/eastern Pima County, Santa Cruz County, and parts of
Cochise and Graham Counties with an isolated thunderstorm over
northern Greenlee County and the Santa Ritas. This likely means
there is very little CIN left and with more surface heating the
atmosphere will be ready for convection.

All the ingredients are in place with seasonable PWAT values,
MLCAPE of 800-1800 J/kg, and effective bulk shear 20-30 kts.
Storms will continue to develop over the White Mountains early
this afternoon and over the Sky Islands by mid-afternoon. Storms
then move into the lower elevations and progress westward
through the late afternoon and evening. Storms could reach
Tucson as early as 5 PM, but between 6-8 PM looks more likely.
Storms will be capable of strong to severe wind gusts with an
isolated storm or two producing a 70+ mph wind gusts. Model
soundings show a dry nose just above 500 mb that could enhance
downdrafts and the 05/12Z HREF has a 30 percent chance for 50 kt
winds within 40 km of a point for central/eastern Pima County
and southern Pinal County this evening. This is being driven by
a couple HREF members that shows storms over Tucson that produce
a strong outflow that moves through the metro and then into the
Tohono O'odham Nation and Pinal County late this evening. If
this does happen expect blowing dust along I-10 in Pinal County.
Locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will also be a
threat from central Pima County eastward late this afternoon
and evening. Most storms will be capable of one inch per hour
rainfall rates with isolated areas approaching 3 inch totals
through midnight. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued
from 4 PM to 11 PM from central Pima County east to western
Cochise County including the Tucson metro and Santa Cruz County.

Overnight convection looks limited after midnight with maybe a
isolated showers over central or western Pima County. Thursday
thunderstorm coverage and intensity looks to be a little less
than today. 0-6 km shear values will be around 15-20 kts, but
there will be plenty of instability and moisture values will be
seasonable. CAMs show initial development over the White
Mountains and Sky Islands of Cochise and Graham Counties, then
spread into the lower elevations mainly south and east of
Tucson. Storms will be capable of strong outflow winds, with a
few storms possibly producing severe wind gusts. Storms will
also be capable of heavy rainfall with an isolated flash
flooding threat.

Friday into early next week the high remains in a favorable
position for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with some
day to day variation in coverage and strength due to the
strength of the high. Friday into Saturday the ridge increases
in strength which will lead to a 2-3 degree warmup compared to
today and Thursday. This could lead to a downturn in monsoon
activity Friday. Saturday ensembles and deterministic models
show an increase in mid-level flow, which could lead to an
increase in storm coverage and intensity even with the stronger
ridge in place. After Saturday heights decrease and
temperatures drop to around normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon
mainly between 05/22Z to 06/05Z with lingering isolated activity
through 06/08Z. Coverage around KTUS more likely 06/01Z-06/06Z
and KOLS/KDUG 05/23Z-06/04Z. Gusty erratic winds of 35-50 kts
possible with any thunderstorm. Cigs will be BKN 8k-12k ft AGL
this afternoon and evening, slowly dissipating overnight. Expect
another round of TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening south and
east of Tucson. Outside of storms SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12
kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts. SFC winds light
and terrain driven after 06/05Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon period looks favorable this
week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening, with day to day variability. Today storms
will be capable of heavy rainfall and strong to severe wind
gusts. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 4 PM to 11 PM.
Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent into
early next week with temperatures 2-7 degrees above normal.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph
with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ502>504-507-
513>515.

&&

Hardin

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1001 AM MST Wed Aug 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Flash Flood      15 E Douglas            31.36N 109.27W
08/04/2026                   Cochise            AZ   Emergency Mngr

            Bridge washed out due to flooding on
            Geronimo Trail rd.

&&

KLM