Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
141 PM MST Wed Jun 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Chance of thunderstorms south and east of Tucson today through
Thursday, with dry conditions returning Friday into the
weekend. High temperatures will be several degrees above normal
through the work week, resulting in moderate to major HeatRisk.
Breezy southwest winds during the afternoon and evening Friday
through Monday result in near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Much of the virga/light shower activity from this morning has
moved north/northeastward and/or dissipated this early
afternoon. Showers have begun to build in the Huachuca
Mountains near Sierra Vista, with minimal activity elsewhere.
The latest HRRR run keeps the storm activity mainly areas south
and east of Tucson, with the metro on the outer fringes of
chances. With the dry low levels and DCAPE of 1400-1600 J/kg,
the greatest impacts with the storms continue to be the wind
gusts of 40-60 mph and lofted areas of blowing dust around those
storms. Activity will decrease into the evening, with possibly
some lingering showers in Cochise County overnight.

Shower/thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon and evening
continues to be focused on areas south and east of Tucson once
again with similar concerns of strong to severe outflow winds
and areas of blowing dust. The HREF 24/12Z run has a decently
sized area of 10% chance for 50 kts. This generally translates
to a stronger wind day.

Outside of the storm/shower chances, the hot temperatures
continue this afternoon into tomorrow, with an Extreme Heat
Warning in place. Moderate to Major HeatRisk will remain through
Friday, with a decrease to Minor HeatRisk this weekend into
early next week as a dry low pressure system passes to the
north of the area. This system will increase southwest winds as
early as Friday afternoon, with the stronger winds expected on
Saturday and Sunday. The combination of the dry conditions and
strong winds this weekend leads to near to critical fire weather
conditions each afternoon and evening, leading to the issuance
of a Fire Weather Watch this weekend (more in the fire weather
section).

Once this low pressure system passes, the high pressure system
to the east will slowly begin to move westward early to mid next
week, bringing back moisture and the potential for increased
storm activity.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 26/00Z.
SCT clouds at 12k-15k ft AGL and SCT-BKN AOA 20k ft AGL mainly
from Tucson south and eastward thru the forecast period.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA south and east of KTUS will be possible now
thru roughly 25/04Z. Confidence is low in a storm impacting an
airport, but the best chances will be at KOLS and KDUG. Strong
outflow winds 30-40 kts will be possible in the vicinity of
storms. Otherwise SFC winds WLY-NWLY at 8-14 kts with ocnl gusts
to 20-25 kts this afternoon and evening. At other times winds
will be variable in direction at less than than 8 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms south and east of Tucson
possible today and Thursday, slight chance in the White
Mountains Friday, with dry conditions returning over the
weekend. High temperatures will be several degrees above normal
through Friday, resulting in moderate to major HeatRisk.
Sustained wind speeds will generally be 15 mph or less today,
except for the lower elevations of Graham county where stronger
speeds of 15-20 mph are expected. Afternoon and early evening
gusts to 25-30 mph are expected areawide due to the strong
surface heating. Any thunderstorms that develop Wednesday though
Friday will have the potential to have wind gusts to 40+ mph.
Minimum relative humidity levels will be in the 10-20 percent
range with areas along the international border on the higher
end of that range.

Southwest winds increase Thursday afternoon in advance of a system
moving to our north, with near critical fire weather conditions
Friday through Sunday. Saturday and Sunday continue to appear
to be the breeziest days with some locations seeing brief Red
Flag conditions in the afternoon and evening, thus a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for areas Sells eastward.
Southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph are
expected Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evenings.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ504>507-
509.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening for AZZ150>154.

&&

JT

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