Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

543 
WWUS85 KTWC 160110
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
610 PM MST Fri May 15 2026

AZZ151>154-161300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.260517T1800Z-260518T0600Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
610 PM MST Fri May 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, 153, AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 151, 152, 153 and 154.

* TIMING...From 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 7 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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001 
WWUS85 KTWC 160849
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
149 AM MST Sat May 16 2026

AZZ151>154-170000-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.260517T1800Z-260518T0600Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
149 AM MST Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, 153, AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 151, 152, 153 and 154.

* TIMING...From 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 7 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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276 
WWUS85 KTWC 161925
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1225 PM MST Sat May 16 2026

AZZ151>154-171300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.260517T1800Z-260518T0600Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
1225 PM MST Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, 153, AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 151, 152, 153 and 154.

* TIMING...From 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 7 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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794 
WWUS85 KTWC 170854
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
154 AM MST Sun May 17 2026

AZZ151>154-180000-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.260517T1800Z-260518T0600Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
154 AM MST Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, 153, AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 151, 152, 153 and 154.

* TIMING...From 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 7 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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914 
WWUS85 KTWC 172036
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 PM MST Sun May 17 2026

AZZ151>154-180600-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260518T0600Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
136 PM MST Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, 153, AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 151, 152, 153 and 154.

* TIMING...Until 11 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 to 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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306 
WWUS85 KTWC 180439
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
939 PM MST Sun May 17 2026

AZZ151>154-180545-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260518T0600Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
939 PM MST Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151, 152, 153, AND 154...

The National Weather Service in Tucson has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.

While breezy winds will continue across portions of southeast
Arizona tonight, wind speeds have fallen below critical levels.
Therefore, the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire.

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
119 AM MST Fri May 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Sunny and warm across Southeast Arizona with
afternoon temperatures 3 to 7 degrees above normal through Saturday.
A dry weather system tracking through the Great Basin this weekend
will bring about breezy conditions Saturday, and then windy
conditions Sunday into Monday with temperatures lowering to slightly
below normal levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest WV/IR satellite imagery shows mostly clear
skies as a very weak trough is moving from west to east across the
state. Less wind today with just some afternoon gustiness as highs
remain about 3 to 7 degrees above normal.

For this weekend into early next week, our weather is going to be
influenced by a stronger dry trough swinging through to our north.
The main impacts for us will be the wind and resulting fire weather
concerns. Winds on Saturday will become breezy in the afternoon with
sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 30
mph. While wind speeds will remain below critical levels Saturday,
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
Saturday afternoon.

The aforementioned trough will swing through to our north Sunday
into Monday and this will be the period for the strongest winds
across our forecast area. Current indications are that Sunday will
be the day with the most widespread stronger winds across a broad
swath of our forecast area with sustained southwest winds of 20-30
mph and gusts 35-45 mph. Winds will be similar Monday south and east
of Tucson. We're still on track for potential fire weather headlines
Sunday and perhaps Monday as well. Otherwise, with the trough
swinging through that will bring in cooler temperatures Sunday and
Monday with highs 2 to 6 degrees below normal.

Thereafter, benign weather for the rest of next week as dry
conditions continue with less wind (typical afternoon breezes).
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z. Mainly SKC through the valid
period. SFC winds light and mainly SELY/SLY at 10 kts or less this
morning, then aft 15/18Z becoming WLY/SWLY wind 8-15 kts with
occasional gusts to 20-25 kts this afternoon. SFC winds diminish to
10 kts or less again aft 16/03Z and become SELY/SLY. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Less wind today for southeast Arizona with just a
few afternoon breezes but that won't last long as a dry weather
system passes to our north this weekend into early next week.
Southwest winds will start to increase Saturday to around 15-20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph, and then ramp up even more Sunday into
Monday to around 20-30 mph sustained and gusts 35-45 mph. The
combination of these strong winds and continued dry conditions will
result in near critical fire weather conditions Saturday and the
potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions Sunday for
most of Southeast Arizona, then focusing south and east of Tucson on
Monday. High temperatures will be about 3 to 7 degrees above normal
through Saturday with cooling to slightly below normal levels Sunday
and Monday. Less winds thereafter for the middle of next week.
Minimum relative humidity values into next week will generally be in
the 6-16 percent range in the valleys and 10-20 percent in the
mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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