Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

823 
WWUS85 KTWC 050836
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026


AZZ151-152-154-060300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0001.260305T2000Z-260306T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
136 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152,
AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern portions of Fire Weather Zones 151, 152
  and 154. This includes Cochise County, Santa Cruz County, and 
  far southeastern portion of Pima County. 

* TIMING...From 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest to west 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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590 
WWUS85 KTWC 052006
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
106 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026


AZZ151-152-154-060300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260306T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
106 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern portions of Fire Weather Zones 151, 152
  and 154. This includes Cochise County, Santa Cruz County, and
  far southeastern portion of Pima County.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest to west 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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828 
WWUS85 KTWC 060257
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
757 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

AZZ151-152-154-060400-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260306T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
757 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, AND 154...

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...The trend of above normal temperatures continues
across southeastern Arizona. A low pressure system crossing to the
north will bring increased winds on Thursday, then near normal
temperatures on Friday. Above normal temperatures return this
weekend. Slight chances for showers begin to arrive this weekend,
with higher chances early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...Changing weather pattern over the next seven days
will bring wind, chances for precipitation, and cooler
temperatures.

Today...Warm and dry conditions with occasional strong gust in the
afternoon.

Thursday...Stronger breezes to gusty winds of speeds 15-25 mph and
gusts 30-35 mph. Stronger speeds in the mountains. Elevated fire
weather conditions with brief localized critical fire weather
conditions for areas east of Tucson. A slight cooling of
temperatures.

Weekend into the new week...A weather system will bring chances
for precipitation across the region. Rainfall amounts will be on
the low end for the period: 0.01-0.20 inches in the valleys with
slightly higher amounts in the mountains. Low chances for mountain
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies across Southeast Arizona this morning.
The upper level pattern will have minor shortwave ridging today
which will bring in high cirrus clouds for the remainder of the
day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday.

Tomorrow, a trough will be moving across the Great Basin and into
northern Arizona. This will increase the pressure gradient,
resulting in stronger winds from the west to southwest. The
deterministic models have backed off slightly compared to the
previous model runs due to the jet placement. This is little more
north and therefore, gradient is not as tight across most of
Southeast Arizona. The trough axis passage and tightest pressure
gradient is expected when the sun is coming down, bringing
strongest winds for the day. HREF probabilities are up to 30% for
gusts greater than 35 mph and mostly confined to the Sky Islands
and higher terrain. Otherwise, expect 15-25 mph with gusts up to
30-35 mph for areas north and east of Tucson. Coupled with the
dry conditions, elevated fire weather conditions is expected east
of Tucson with brief localized critical fire weather conditions in
the late afternoon and before sunset.

Next weather maker will be the same trough, but it will be
embedded shortwave that will kick out a closed low. Ensembles show
the closed low sitting to the south-southwest of Arizona. This
low will bring modest moisture into the region, providing daily
(20-35%) chances for precipitation and increasing those chances
towards the start of the week. There is uncertainty on how the low
will evolve over the late weekend and into the new week. The
latest guidance show the closed low leaving by Tuesday, but it all
depends on how it evolves and the position over the region. This
will influence the chances for precipitation and rainfall amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z.
SKC this morning then SCT-BKN cirrus AOA 20k ft by 04/15Z though
the forecast period. Light and variable winds less than 10 kts
this morning until 04/18Z and again after 05/03Z. In between and
in the afternoon, winds become southwest-west 8-12 kts with gusts
up to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer and dry conditions for today with southwest
to west winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Tomorrow, a
trough will increase winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 to 35
mph. 40 mph gusts is possible in the Sky Islands and towards the
White Mountains. Min relative humidities will be 9-18 percent
with this system, and as a result, widespread elevated fire
weather conditions with brief localized critical fire weather
conditions in the late afternoon for areas east of Tucson. Breezes
can be expected on Friday, but lower in speeds, along with cooler
temperatures. This weekend, a weather system will bring moisture
and daily chances for precipitation into the new week. Rain
accumulations will be on the low end with this system.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Strongman

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