Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Tucson, AZ

014 
WGUS75 KTWC 292121
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 PM MST Wed Jul 29 2026

AZC003-292330-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260729T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
221 PM MST Wed Jul 29 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

At 221 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
between 1 and 2 inches of heavy rain falling near Rucker Canyon
across the southwest portions of the Chiricahua Mountains. Rainfall
runoff will result in flash flooding of the drainages that feed into
Rucker Canyon Creek. Elsewhere, heavy rainfall that fell across the
west-central portions of the Chiricahua Mountains will continue to
result in flash flooding along West Turkey Creek.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Portal, Chiricahua National Monument, Rucker Canyon and Paradise.

This includes the following highways...
Route 181 between mile markers 48 and 64. Route 186 between mile
markers 357 and 359.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Hwy 181 at Turkey Creek.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  South Fork Keating Creek, Onion Creek, Silver Creek, Fivemile
  Creek, East Whitetail Creek, Stanford Creek, Whitewater Draw,
  Pridham Creek, Leslie Creek, East Turkey Creek, Pinery Creek,
  Indian Creek, Ash Creek, West Whitetail Creek, Witch Creek, Wood
  Canyon, Cave Creek, Turkey Creek, Rucker Canyon and Keating Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 10937 3203 10947 3188 10954 3175 10955
      3169 10940 3173 10923 3191 10913 3200 10917
      3208 10926

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

CWR

667 
WGUS75 KTWC 292328
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
428 PM MST Wed Jul 29 2026

AZC003-292338-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260729T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
428 PM MST Wed Jul 29 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 10937 3203 10947 3188 10954 3175 10955
      3169 10940 3173 10923 3191 10913 3200 10917
      3208 10926

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1236 PM MST Wed Jul 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend with day to day variability
in coverage and strength. High temperatures will warm to 7-12
degrees above normal Thursday into the weekend with an Extreme
Heat Warning through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOES sounder profile and SPC mesoanalysis shows the atmosphere
eroding the last remaining CIN values across the area. There
has been ample sunshine to continue eroding CIN and there are a
few towering cumulus clouds forming over the eastern Sky
Islands. All indications for an active afternoon for areas south
and east of Tucson. These areas have the best ingredients to
support thunderstorms due to shear values of 10-20 kts and CAPE
greater than 1500 j/kg. A few storms will reach Tucson metro to
bring gusty winds and light to moderate rain showers. 12Z HREF
model has 70% chances for wind gusts greater than 35 mph in
Cochise County and into eastern Santa Cruz County this
afternoon. There can be a few storms capable producing a severe
level wind in the afternoon. Storm's will be capable producing
up to 0.75-1 inch total with Santa Cruz County having at least
50% of receiving an inch or more through the late evening.
There will be a risk for flash flooding along the International
Border between Nogales and Naco.

The ridge of high pressure will start to build west starting
tomorrow. Temperatures will be increasing 10-15 degrees above
seasonal normals. This will push the region into Major and
Extreme HeatRisk tomorrow through Sunday. The hottest days will
be Friday and Saturday with temperatures reaching up to 113F.
Tucson has 112F on Saturday. Extreme Heat Warning is in effect
Thursday through Sunday evening.

Thunderstorm chances will be generally low tomorrow and Friday
due the lack of upper level support. There will be plenty of
instability to get vertical growth. The best areas for any
thunderstorm growth will be south and east of Tucson. Chances
will increase for Saturday and Sunday.

Next week, right after this heat, the upper level flow will
return from the east to southeast with the high pressure center
close to the Four Corners. This set up will provide better daily
chances for thunderstorms and rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 31/00Z.
SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL this morning becoming SCT-BKN 8k-12k
ft AGL this afternoon and evening south and east of KTUS.
Isolated to scattered TSRA will be possible 29/20Z-30/03Z with
KOLS and KDUG terminals having the best chances to be impacted
by TSRA. KTUS has a 10 percent chance for TSRA. Near
thunderstorms wind gusts 30-40 kts will be possible. Surface
winds NWLY 6-10 kts with occasional gusts this afternoon and
evening and again after 30/18Z. In the overnight hours, winds
will be less than 10 kts and variable. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures will remain well above normal
this week with an Extreme Heat Warning in place Thursday
through Saturday. Expect daily chances of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms mainly south and east of Tucson
through the weekend with some day to day variability in
coverage. Early next week storm coverage and chances are
expected to increase. Any thunderstorm will bring a threat of
severe, erratic wind gusts as well as brief heavy rainfall and
an isolated threat of flash flooding. Min RH values will
be 10-20 percent tomorrow into the weekend. Winds will be
terrain driven 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM MST Sunday
for AZZ501>509.

&&

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