Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Tucson, AZ

333 
WGUS75 KTWC 210159
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
659 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

AZC003-210415-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-260721T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
659 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

At 659 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Benson, St. David, Dragoon, Kartchner Caverns State Park,
  Pearce-Sunsites, Mescal, Cochise and Texas Canyon.

This includes the following highways...
Route 90 between mile markers 290 and 304. Route 80 between mile
markers 293 and 311. Route 191 between mile markers 47 and 66.
Interstate 10 between mile markers 297 and 334.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Escalante Wash, Montosa Canyon, Walnut Wash, Dragoon Wash,
  Haberstock Wash, Cadillac Wash, San Pedro River, Tres Alamos Wash,
  Clifford Wash, Mescal Arroyo, Slavin Wash, Ash Creek, Pacheco Wash,
  Apache Canyon, Cienega Creek, Middle Canyon Wash and Willow Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 10991 3193 10980 3173 11021 3176 11045
      3209 11045

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KJS

168 
WGUS75 KTWC 210230
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
730 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

AZC003-210415-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-260721T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
730 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

At 730 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. The heaviest rain fell north of Benson, along North Cascabel
Road, and within the San Pedro River valley. Additional rainfall
amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Benson, St. David, Dragoon, Kartchner Caverns State Park,
  Pearce-Sunsites, Mescal, Cochise and Texas Canyon.

This includes the following highways...
Route 90 between mile markers 290 and 304. Route 80 between mile
markers 293 and 311. Route 191 between mile markers 47 and 66.
Interstate 10 between mile markers 297 and 334.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Escalante Wash, Montosa Canyon, Walnut Wash, Dragoon Wash,
  Haberstock Wash, Cadillac Wash, San Pedro River, Tres Alamos Wash,
  Clifford Wash, Mescal Arroyo, Slavin Wash, Ash Creek, Pacheco Wash,
  Apache Canyon, Cienega Creek, Middle Canyon Wash and Willow Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 10991 3193 10980 3173 11021 3176 11045
      3209 11045

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KJS

414 
WGUS75 KTWC 210324
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
824 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

AZC003-210415-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-260721T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
824 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

At 824 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Benson, St. David, Dragoon, Mescal and Texas Canyon.

This includes the following highways...
Route 90 between mile markers 290 and 296. Route 80 between mile
markers 293 and 304. Interstate 10 between mile markers 297 and 327.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Escalante Wash, Walnut Wash, Dragoon Wash, San Pedro River,
  Cadillac Wash, Tres Alamos Wash, Mescal Arroyo, Slavin Wash, Ash
  Creek and Pacheco Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 11001 3190 10995 3185 11020 3187 11036
      3195 11044 3209 11045

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KJS

218 
WGUS75 KTWC 210412
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
912 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

AZC003-210422-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-260721T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
912 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Washes may be elevated and will continue to drain. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MST Tuesday for a
portion of Southeast Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 11001 3190 10995 3185 11020 3187 11036
      3195 11044 3209 11045

$$

KJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
112 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
The combination of ample moisture across Southeast Arizona and
an upper-level disturbance moving into the area from New Mexico
today will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms, especially to the east and south of Tucson.
These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Graham, Greenlee, Cochise and
Santa Cruz counties this through Tuesday evening. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain below average by several
degrees into midweek increasing to above normal late this week
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Biggest change from this morning is extending the Flash Flood
Watch through tomorrow evening for Graham, Greenlee, Cochise,
and Santa Cruz Counties.

The main threat will be very heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
with gusty winds a secondary threat. There could be a localized
gust to 50 kts as convection moves off the terrain, but 30-40kts
are more likely. A deeper dive into the flash flood setup
shows abundant moisture and a susceptible area. Widespread
0.5"+ with localized amounts of 2"+ fell across a good chunk of
far SEAZ, especially Cochise County yesterday. This area will
be the most vulnerable. In addition, CAMs show weakly organized
clusters/single cell with the potential for cell mergers and at
least some training/backbuilding as flow remains relatively
weak. The best chance for training or backbuilding will be
across Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties this evening.

As the mid/upper level low noses into SEAZ from NM/MX,
convection could go well into the evening and perhaps into the
overnight. Confidence is low at this time regarding the
overnight, but there is at least some signal in the HREF of
higher rainfall totals across central Pima County. In addition,
at least some higher res solutions now show additional
convective development early morning across areas from Tucson
south to Nogales and west toward Sells. There still is not
enough confidence to expand the Flash Flood Watch west into
eastern/central Pima County, but its is not out of the question
we have a flash flood warning or two this evening or even
tomorrow morning.

As for the Tucson Metro, confidence is again low on the
evolution and propagation of storms off the rim this
evening/overnight. We will likely have storms in the metro, but
once again favoring the Catalina Foothills, Oracle/Catalina, the
far east side, and south into the Corona De Tucson. We cannot
rule out localized flash flooding, but probabilities are rather
low. The more likely scenario is seeing light to moderate rain
showers with embedded storms late evening into overnight/early
morning hours as the mid/upper level low begins to provide more
lift and elevated instability to the area.

Moving into Tuesday still remains a little tricky given how
active today will be and how convection lingers into tomorrow
morning, but enough CAMS, HREF probs of 3"+ amounts, and the
mid/upper level low moving across the CWA is more than enough to
bump up confidence. So the watch for tomorrow looks good, with
uncertainty remaining for areas along the watch in Pinal/Pima
County.

As we move into Wed/Thu/Fri, there should be a noticeable
downtrend in daily showers/storms. While it will trend drier,
there will still be daily convection, most likely favoring the
typical areas south and east of Tucson. The flash flood threat
will also lessen and allow for soils to recover as we heat up.
While the flash flood threat trends down, the threat for gusty
winds will increase with better mid and upper level flow/drier
air.

Monsoon activity looks to ramp back up for the weekend as the
high moves into a more favorable region and multiple waves look
to track across the area.

Daytime temps below average early this week, transitioning to
above average by midweek. Spotty major heat risk is possible for
portions of Pima County, generally around the metro and across
the western third of the county. In addition, the upper Gila
River Valley has some spotty major heat risk. As of now,
confidence is not high enough for an Extreme Heat Watch, due to
the limited coverage and possibility of monsoon activity/clouds
lowering aftn temps. We will monitor for now and message an
overall upward trend in temps and heat risk by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
FEW/SCT cloud decks AOA 8-11k ft agl this afternoon, becoming
BKN/OVC as coverage of SHRA/TSRA expands through the evening.
KOLS/KDUG has the best chance to see TS with brief MVFR possible
under heavy +TSRA. Sfc winds generally less than 12kts, except
for around storms where VRB gusts to 40kts will be possible.

-TSRA/-SHRA continues into the evening and perhaps overnight
 with BKN/OVC decks lowering, but VFR will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue each afternoon and
evening through the next 7 days with day to day variability.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected east and south
of Tucson today, and again Tuesday. These storms will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect today/tomorrow for the eastern
portions of Southeast Arizona. Min RH 25-30% in the lower desert
locations and above 40% in the mountains through mid-week. By
Thursday into the weekend, RH could dip into the 17-22% range for
the lower deserts west of Tucson and the upper Gila River Valley
as temperatures warm to above average. Winds this week will
remain mainly light and under 15 mph, though strong and erratic
winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for AZZ503-507>513.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
319 PM MST Mon Jul 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     10 S Clifton            32.88N 109.31W
07/20/2026  M54 MPH          Greenlee           AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station QGTA3 Guthrie gusted to 54
            mph. Time estimated by radar.

&&

JVT