Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Tucson, AZ

709 
WGUS75 KTWC 200238
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
738 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

AZC003-200400-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-260720T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
738 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

At 738 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen in Willcox. Additional rainfall
amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Willcox.

This includes the following highways...
Route 191 between mile markers 64 and 66. Interstate 10 between mile
markers 330 and 343. Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 332.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 10983 3231 10994 3218 11000 3213 10993
      3215 10983 3222 10977 3227 10977

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

GEL

127 
WGUS75 KTWC 200355
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
855 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

AZC003-200405-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-260720T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
855 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 10983 3231 10994 3218 11000 3213 10993
      3215 10983 3222 10977 3227 10977

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1242 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers and a few thunderstorms from Tucson west into the
lower desert this afternoon, with more widespread shower and
storm activity south and east of Tucson. An uptick in activity
is likely into the first half of the week. Daytime temperatures
remain below average by several degrees into midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over the higher
terrain of SEAZ, the Mogollon Rim, and higher elevations in NM.
This activity will push into the lower deserts/valley locales
by late afternoon and into the evening. The main threats will be
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. While organized and more
widespread severe weather is not expected, we cannot rule out an
isolated 50kt gust. However, most wind gusts should remain
below 40kts. As for flash flooding, the threat remains where
storms are slow to move or any cell mergers. In addition, any
area that has received heavy rainfall over the past several days
will be quite susceptible.

As for the Tucson Metro, confidence remains low for any
activity today. Convection off the rim and to the east will try
and push W/SW, but will run into increasingly stable conditions,
especially as the sun goes down. We still cannot rule it out,
but the best chance will be for the Catalina Foothills, Tanque
Verde over to the far east side and south of the metro. Same
threat of heavy rainfall and gusty winds with any activity in
the metro.

As we move into early week, better forcing moves in from the
E/SE. A weak upper level low moves across AZ, which should help
increase storm coverage for areas south and east on Monday.
There should be westward expansion into the Tucson metro and
central Pima Co by Tuesday, but confidence is only moderate on
how far west activity gets. The main threats with the early week
activity will be heavy rain, localized flash flooding, and
gusty winds. There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive
rainfall for much of SEAZ Mon/Tue, but confidence is too low at
this time for a Flash Flood Watch. It will be more dependent on
how the activity evolves today and better resolve in the higher
res CAMs as we move into Mon/Tue.

By mid week, the mid and upper level pattern shifts with a more
E/SE flow. Flow will also increase with the potential for a weak
easterly wave to move across AZ. This will keep daily isolated
to scattered showers and storms through the rest of the work
week. As flow increases, stronger storms with an increasing
threat for strong gusty winds are possible.

Temperatures remain several degrees below average through mid
week, before warming to near/a few degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH 19Z MONDAY/...
Majority of the region went from BKN/OVC this morning to
FEW/SCT AOA 6-8k ft agl this aftn. Iso/sct showers/storms
developing over the higher terrain and will move into the lower
deserts by later afternoon. KOLS/KDUG has the greatest chance
for showers/storms with brief MVFR in storms. Otherwise, VFR
with winds less than 12kts with the exception of gusts to
35-40kts in storms. KTUS on the fringe of activity today, but
could still see VCTS/VCHS.

VCTS/VCHS and the occasional shower could linger into the
evening and overnight, but VFR will prevail. More shower and
storm activity tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue each afternoon
and evening through the next 7 days with day to day variability.
An increase in thunderstorm activity is expected east of Tucson
today, then expand in coverage the first half of the week.
Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the lower desert
locations and above 40 percent in the mountains this week. Winds
this week will remain mainly light and under 15 mph, though
strong and erratic winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
DISCUSSION...Michael
AVIATION...Michael
FIRE WEATHER...Michael

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