Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Tucson, AZ

096 
WGUS75 KTWC 182121
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026

AZC023-182345-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-260718T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
221 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 221 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen. Nogales Wash has peaked at 9 ft. Additional rainfall amounts
of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding
is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Nogales and Rio Rico.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 1 and 13. Route 82 between mile
markers 1 and 3.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Nogales Wash at Doe St Bridge and Pendleton Dr at Sonoita Creek.

Nogales Wash has peaked at 9 ft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11104 3149 11105 3150 11094 3141 11091
      3133 11088

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KM

865 
WGUS75 KTWC 182341
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
441 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026

AZC023-182351-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-260718T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
441 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11104 3149 11105 3150 11094 3141 11091
      3133 11088

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1232 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon areas east and south of Tucson. These storms will
have the potential for heavy rainfall. Otherwise, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday with a
possible uptick in thunderstorm activity next Monday and
especially Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper-level low continues to be positioned in central-western
Texas driving storm motion here in southern Arizona. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pop up areas
east of Tucson. Substantial moisture remains in place today with
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to upper 60s and satellite
derived PWATs between 1.5 to 1.8 inches. CAMs are still having a
hard time capturing what is going to happen today, showing
widely varying outcomes with each run of the models. In general,
thunderstorms seem to be focused to areas east and south of
Tucson, initiating off the terrain and moving to the south at 5
to 10 mph. The main concern associated with storms today is
heavy downpours leading to nuisance ponding and flooding and
flash flooding associated with stronger storm. While wind is not
a huge concern today there may still be strong to gusty outflow
winds.

Over the next few days, the low over western TX will morph into
an inverted trough as high pressure currently to our west will
gradually move into southern UT and CO by Monday. The trough
will push into eastern AZ starting Monday into northern Arizona
by Tuesday as high pressure moves into the central U.S. This
will help bring in more moisture into the area and slow
southerly flow leading to our next up day. The Weather
Prediction Center has placed portions of AZ into slight risk
through Tuesday. Sunday and Monday there are still chances for
daily thunderstorms each day with their own nuances.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 20/00Z.

SKC to BKN clouds AOA 4-8k ft AGL and BKN to OVC clouds AOA
8-12k ft AGL. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/TSRA will continue
mostly east of KTUS until roughly 18/22Z. Brief heavy rainfall
and erratic strong wind gusts of 30-40 kts possible with any
storm. Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds generally under
10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue each afternoon
and evening through the next 7 days with day to day variability.
An increase in thunderstorm activity is expected Monday and
especially Tuesday of next week. Minimum relative humidity 25-30
percent in the lower desert locations and above 40 percent in
the mountains this week. Winds this week will remain mainly
light and under 15 mph, though strong and erratic winds will be
possible with any thunderstorm.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Malarkey

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