Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ

057 
WGUS75 KTWC 152205
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

AZC023-152330-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260715T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
305 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 305 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is
expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Nogales, Rio Rico, Nogales International Airport, Patagonia Lake
  State Park, Kino Springs and Pena Blanca Lake.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 5 and 15. Route 82 between mile
markers 4 and 13.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Pendleton Dr at Sonoita Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11082 3139 11095 3137 11111 3151 11106
      3156 11095 3146 11077 3133 11081

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KJS

116 
WGUS75 KTWC 152321
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
421 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

AZC023-152331-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260715T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
421 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11082 3139 11095 3137 11111 3151 11106
      3156 11095 3146 11077 3133 11081

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
242 AM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
  evening with a threat of heavy rainfall and strong outflow
  winds.

- Increasing moisture and a disturbance from the east will bring
  more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday
  with a risk for flash flooding. Another day of increased
  chances may occur again on Friday, though coverage may depend
  on lingering cloud cover from Thursday's activity.

- High temperatures will be a few degrees below normal today and
  cool further through the end of the week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over much of
southeastern Arizona this afternoon, with lower chances in
southeastern Cochise county. Heavy rainfall and strong wind
gusts will be possible with any thunderstorm. More widespread
chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday
and potentially Friday with a risk of flash flooding. High
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal today and cool
further through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Ample atmospheric moisture remains across the region today with
satellite derived precipitable water values ranging from 1.1
inches along the New Mexico border to 1.8 inches in western Pima
county early this morning. Flow aloft has turned northeasterly,
which will produce a northeast to southwest storm motion this
afternoon and evening. Most 00Z high resolution models advertise
widely scattered thunderstorms developing in the early
afternoon today, with lowest chances in southeastern Cochise.
Drying in the mid- levels along with modest shear will bring a
localized gusty wind and blowing dust threat. The 00Z HREF
highlights a 50-70 percent chance of a 35 mph wind gust within
25 miles of any point from storms from off the White Mountains
southwest through Pinal, Pima, and Santa Cruz counties. A low
end but non- zero chance of a severe wind gust will also be
possible with any thunderstorm. Heavy rainfall will be likely
with storms and may carry a flash flooding threat, though their
motion today should preclude a widespread problem.

Attention turns to Thursday and Friday where an increase in
precipitable water and the arrival of an easterly wave ramp up
shower/thunderstorm chances across the region. Precipitable
water values will rise to 1.4 inches east to near 2 inches in
western Pima with surface dew points over 60 degrees becoming
common. These increasing thunderstorm chances (60-80 percent on
Thursday) should produce a flash flooding risk as heavy rain
rates will be likely amid the above normal moisture field. A
headline may be necessary once high- resolution modeling better
captures Thursday, depending on how the anticipated coverage of
a flash flooding risk pans out. On Friday the easterly wave
will continue to be an influence, however convective debris
from the previous day may impact Friday's thunderstorm chances.

This weekend into next week the upper ridge gradually becomes
more centered over the Four Corners region, bringing favorable
easterly flow in southeastern Arizona for continued monsoon
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.

FEW-SCT ceilings 12k-15k through the morning. Scattered
thunderstorms expected to develop after 15/19Z and diminishing
after 16/03Z, though isolated activity may linger longer into
the night. Heavy rainfall, mountain obscurations, and erratic
strong wind gusts 35-40 kts possible with any thunderstorm.
Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds generally light and
under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the coming week with day to
day variability. More widespread chances for showers and
thunderstorms are likely Thursday and potentially Friday.
Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the lower desert
locations and above 40 percent in the mountains this week. Winds
this week will remain mainly light and under 15 mph, though
strong and erratic winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards
FIRE WEATHER...Edwards

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
821 AM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Dudleyville       32.87N 110.71W
07/14/2026                   Pinal              AZ   Public

            Social media reports power outages and a top
            of a pine tree snapped. Time estimated based
            on radar.

&&

JRM