Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Tucson, AZ

970 
WGUS75 KTWC 130240
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
740 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

AZC019-130330-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260713T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
740 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 740 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated earlier thunderstorms produced
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.2 inches are
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sells, Topawa, San Isidro, Kitt Peak, Ali Chukson, Gu Oidak,
  Cowlic, Fresnal, No:ligk, South Comobabi, Comobabi, Cababi, Artesia
  and Ali Molina.

This includes Route 86 between mile markers 104 and 129.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Indian Route 19 south of Topawa and Indian Route 20 at Cowlic.

Flash flooding reported in Little Tucson Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 11199 3210 11178 3199 11163 3199 11160
      3193 11148 3180 11153 3187 11176 3172 11181
      3174 11201 3192 11204

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JRM

739 
WGUS75 KTWC 130329
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
829 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

AZC019-130339-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260713T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
829 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 11199 3210 11178 3199 11163 3199 11160
      3193 11148 3180 11153 3187 11176 3172 11181
      3174 11201 3192 11204

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1205 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
  evening, bringing a threat of strong to severe wind gusts with
  blowing dust and periods of heavy rainfall. An isolated flash
  flooding threat will also come with this activity. Greater
  coverage of thunderstorms will generally be through Pinal,
  Pima, and Santa Cruz counties with lowest coverage in eastern
  Cochise county.

- Thunderstorm chances will continue daily through the upcoming
  week with day to day variability in location and severity.
  High temperatures are forecast to sit around to just below
  normal Monday onwards.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm activity will return this afternoon and evening,
bringing a threat of strong to severe wind gusts, blowing dust,
and flash flooding. Thunderstorm chances will be greater in
Pinal, Pima, and Santa Cruz counties with more isolated activity
in eastern locations closer to the New Mexico border.
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the upcoming week
across southeastern Arizona with day to day variability in
location and severity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A field of cumulus clouds is developing areas Tucson eastward
with a few small thunderstorms are beginning to develop along
the AZ/NM border. Surface dewpoints are now in the 50s out east
gradually increasing into the low 60s in western Pima county
with satellite derived PWATs around 1.4 to 1.6 inches. High PWAT
is also shown in the 12Z upper air sounding launched in Phoenix
with a value of 1.84 inches. Severe, organized thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening. Forecast
soundings continue to depict inverted-V soundings producing
DCAPE between 1500-1800 J/kg. This instability combined with up
to 20-25 kts of effective shear will be conducive to severe,
organized thunderstorms. The 12Z HREF highlights an area from
Tucson westward up to Phoenix of 10-30% chance for greater than
50 knot (58 mph) winds this afternoon into the evening. The 12Z
issuance of the day 1 outlook produced by SPC has expanded the
slight risk westward to now include all of the Tohono O'odham
Nation. WPC maintains our area to be in marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Slower storm motion of 10 to 15 mph and
ample moisture will preclude a widespread flash flooding threat,
heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are likely with
any thunderstorm. Storms will begin to initiate around 1 to 2 pm
this afternoon in Cochise/ eastern Pima county gradually
pushing westward as the evening progresses.

Tomorrow, ample moisture will remain in place as the high
pressure center oscillates around the Four Corners. The
ingredients for severe weather are not as pronounced as they
have been the past few days but still present for tomorrow.
Inverted-V soundings are producing DCAPE around 1100-1300 J/kg.
12Z HREF has a 50-70% chance for 30 knot (35 mph) wind gusts
therefore strong to severe winds will be a concern. SPC has our
area in general risk for severe thunderstorms. Suitable
moisture in place will also lead to localized flash flooding
with stronger thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5
inches per hour possible. WPC has our are in marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

Healthy precipitable water values should remain in the area as
mean flow continues out of the east, though shear should come
down a bit by Tuesday as wind speeds aloft decrease with the
ridge becoming further displaced to the northeast. Daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
week with day to day variability in locations and severity.
Though there is some discrepancy in timing, ensemble models
continue to show signs of an easterly wave arriving mid to late
in the week, which would enhance thunderstorm chances. This wave
along with the northern displacement of the ridge would bring
high temperatures down below normal, with best chances of lower
high temperatures currently falling Friday through the coming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/00Z.

Thunderstorm activity expected to develop after 12/20Z,
especially near a KAVQ-KTUS-KOLS line. Scattered thunderstorms
will then move west through the afternoon and evening. Severe
wind gusts and blowing dust may accompany any thunderstorm along
with heavy rain and mountain obscurations. Thunderstorm
activity will decrease in coverage after 13/03Z with isolated
light SHRA/-TSRA into the overnight hours. Surface winds in
eastern areas including KSAD- KDUG continue east/southeast after
increasing to 9-14 kts with gusts to 20 kts aft 13/15Z while
winds elsewhere generally remain light and under 10 kts outside
of thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered thunderstorms expected to redevelop this afternoon,
especially through Pinal, Pima, and Santa Cruz counties.
Isolated activity in eastern areas. Any thunderstorm will likely
bring strong and erratic winds with a few becoming severe. Winds
outside of thunderstorms today will become east to southeast
10-15 mph with gusts to 22 mph in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise
counties, with more light and variable winds to the west. With
moisture on the rise today, minimum relative humidities will be
above 20-30 percent across the area and increasing further in
the coming several days. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms are forecast through the upcoming week with day to
day variability.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MST
this evening for AZZ501>505.

&&

Malarkey/ Edwards

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1233 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Flash Flood      Oracle                  32.61N 110.78W
07/11/2026                   Pinal              AZ   Public

            Flash flooding around Lavender Farms with
            roads impassable and two picnic tables
            damaged and washed downstream. Time
            estimated based on radar.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1254 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Oracle             32.61N 110.77W
07/11/2026                   Pinal              AZ   Public

            Flash flooding in Oracle Park, causing
            damage to community gardens and appears to
            flood at least one small building.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
142 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ESE Tucson            32.16N 110.83W
07/11/2026                   Pima               AZ   Public

            Several instances of minor roof damage.
            Shingle loss and roofing material peeled
            back verified through photos. Numerous
            reports of large tree branches snapped and
            or uprooted trees.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
315 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 W Benson              31.96N 110.40W
07/12/2026  M58 MPH          Cochise            AZ   Public

            Personal weather station recorded 58 MPH
            wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
409 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     10 ESE Tucson           32.15N 110.73W
07/12/2026  M63 MPH          Pima               AZ   Public

            63 mph wind gust measured at personal
            weather station.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
435 PM MST Sun Jul 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 SW Tucson             32.13N 110.95W
07/12/2026  M59 MPH          Pima               AZ   ASOS

            ASOS station KTUS Tucson International
            Airport.

&&

KLM