Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026
Flash Flood Warning 200, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 12, 2026, 2:01 PM MST for Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 12, 2026, 2:01 PM MST (21:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 12, 2026, 5:00 PM MST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
County Santa Cruz County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 178 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -203 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1843 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 6 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
747
WGUS55 KTWC 122101
FFWTWC
AZC023-130000-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0200.260912T2101Z-260913T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
201 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026
The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Santa Cruz County in southeastern Arizona...
* Until 500 PM MST.
* At 201 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area that extends from Patagonia to
Tubac. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Tubac, Rio Rico, Patagonia, Patagonia Lake State Park, Tumacacori
and Amado.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 15 and 25. Route 82 between mile
markers 12 and 26.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain.
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.
&&
LAT...LON 3152 11060 3162 11070 3165 11078 3168 11095
3168 11105 3162 11109 3154 11108 3149 11095
3142 11067
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
$$
GEL2 follow-up statements
348
WGUS75 KTWC 122214
FFSTWC
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
314 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026
AZC023-130000-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0200.000000T0000Z-260913T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
314 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...
At 314 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms have diminished
over the warned area which extends from the Patagonia region west to
Tubac. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Tubac, Rio Rico, Patagonia, Patagonia Lake State Park, Tumacacori
and Amado.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 15 and 25. Route 82 between mile
markers 12 and 26.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain.
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.
&&
LAT...LON 3152 11060 3162 11070 3165 11078 3168 11095
3168 11105 3162 11109 3154 11108 3149 11095
3142 11067
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
$$
GEL901
WGUS75 KTWC 122356
FFSTWC
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
456 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026
AZC023-130006-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0200.000000T0000Z-260913T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
456 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...
The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.
&&
LAT...LON 3152 11060 3162 11070 3165 11078 3168 11095
3168 11105 3162 11109 3154 11108 3149 11095
3142 11067
$$
KMWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 12, 1:14 PM MST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 12, 1:14 PM MST, 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 114 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A more typical isolated to scattered coverage of storms is forecast this weekend into next week. Daily high temperatures will fluctuate between near normal and a few degrees below normal. && .DISCUSSION...Scattered storms already ongoing and continue to fill into the Tucson Metro which is no surprise given the moisture profile in place today in conjunction with sufficient instability. We'll mainly be monitoring for heavy rainfall this afternoon as scattered storms with frequent lightning continue to evolve, but can't rule out strong gusty outflow winds. With very weak flow in the atmosphere, the storms that do form have the potential to dump an impactful amount of rain over the same spot resulting in water flowing in normally dry washes and low water crossings becoming inundated with swift moving water. HREF depicts a slight chance (10%) for rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches. If storms do gradually evolve into the Tucson Metro proper, we could see urban street flooding with ponding of water on roadways and in poor drainage areas. This weekend chances for isolated to scattered storms continues, again with the moisture we have in place the primary concern continues to lean toward heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. Monday still looks to be a bit more active as a weak disturbance moves across southeast Arizona. Combined with the additional moisture we have in place, any lifting mechanism can help provide confidence in a heavy rainfall event. QPF continues to trend up with WPC placing portions of the forecast area under slight risk for excessive rainfall with the potential for stronger storms producing rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr leading to the increased risk of localized flash flooding. Time will tell as its difficult to time disturbances this far out. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 14/00Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA thru 13/04Z. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 6-10 kts thru 13/05 becoming terrain driven and less than 10 kts thereafter. Tomorrow, ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA aft 13/17Z. SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 6-10 kts. Visibility 1-3 SM possible in TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A typical isolated to scattered coverage of storms is forecast this weekend into next week. High temperatures will will fluctuate between near normal and a few degrees below normal. Min RH values mainly 20 to 45 percent in the valleys and 35 to 65 percent in the mountains over the next week. RH recoveries will continue to be excellent overnight. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven. Gusty and erratic winds will accompany thunderstorms. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && DVS Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
In the hours before
Local storm report, Sep 12, 1:09 PM MST, 52 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
109 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1255 PM Flash Flood 2 S Picture Rocks 32.31N 111.24W
09/12/2026 Pima AZ Fire Dept/Rescue
Swift water rescue on W Rudasill rd and N
Chaparral Rd.
&&
AJELocal storm report, Sep 12, 1:18 PM MST, 43 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
118 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0107 PM Flash Flood 4 SSE Picture Rocks 32.29N 111.22W
09/12/2026 Pima AZ Fire Dept/Rescue
Swift water rescue on W Manville Rd and N
Sandario Rd.
&&
AJELocal storm report, Sep 12, 1:50 PM MST, 11 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 PM MST Sat Sep 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0146 PM Flash Flood 15 SE Tucson 32.03N 110.72W
09/12/2026 Pima AZ Fire Dept/Rescue
Swift water rescue on Wentworth near I10.
&&
AJEThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 5:18 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Cochise | 3 hr |
| Sep 11, 5:30 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pima | 2 hr |
| Sep 11, 6:24 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 44 min |
| Sep 11, 6:31 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 3 hr |
| Sep 11, 7:01 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 119 min |
| Sep 11, 7:03 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pinal | 117 min |
| Sep 11, 7:07 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Cochise | 3 hr |
| Sep 11, 8:41 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Cochise, Graham | 3 hr |
| Sep 11, 9:20 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Cochise, Graham | 3 hr |
| Sep 12, 11:38 AM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 3 hr |
| Sep 12, 11:43 AM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Cochise | 3 hr |
| Sep 12, 12:10 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 3 hr |
| Sep 12, 12:16 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise, Pima, Santa Cruz | 20 min |
| Sep 12, 12:37 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 38 min |
| Sep 12, 12:44 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 46 min |
| Sep 12, 12:52 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 3 hr |
| Sep 12, 1:06 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima, Santa Cruz | 39 min |
| Sep 12, 1:18 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 29 min |
| Sep 12, 1:21 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 3 hr |
| Sep 12, 1:31 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima, Santa Cruz | 3 hr |
| Sep 12, 1:44 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 46 min |
| Sep 12, 1:50 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 40 min |
| Sep 12, 2:28 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 3 hr |
| Sep 12, 2:45 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 19 min |
| Sep 12, 3:06 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pima | 3 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2026Every flash flood warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.