Flash Flood Warning 187, NWS Tucson, AZ

232 
WGUS75 KTWC 040129
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
629 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

AZC019-040400-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0187.000000T0000Z-260904T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
629 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 629 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area, especially in Topawa Wash between Topawa
and Choulic. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts up to 0.3 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, and streets as well as other poor drainage and
         low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Topawa, South Komelik, Choulic, and Coldfields.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Indian Route 19 between Topawa and Choulic.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Mulberry Wash, Puertocito Wash, Moras Wash, Las, Chutum Vaya Wash,
  Placeritos Wash, Altar Wash, Baboquivari Wash, Sabino Wash, Topawa
  Wash and Vamori Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 11165 3169 11161 3181 11157 3185 11168
      3186 11179 3185 11186 3171 11180 3165 11181
      3165 11175

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

EDWARDS

608 
WGUS75 KTWC 040204
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
704 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

AZC019-040400-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0187.000000T0000Z-260904T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
704 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 704 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area, especially in Topawa Wash between Topawa
and Choulic. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts up to 0.3 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, and streets as well as other poor drainage and
         low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Topawa, South Komelik, Choulic, and Coldfields.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Indian Route 19 between Topawa and Choulic.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Mulberry Wash, Puertocito Wash, Moras Wash, Las, Chutum Vaya Wash,
  Placeritos Wash, Altar Wash, Baboquivari Wash, Sabino Wash, Topawa
  Wash and Vamori Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 11165 3169 11161 3181 11157 3185 11168
      3186 11179 3185 11186 3171 11180 3165 11181
      3165 11175

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

EDWARDS

210 
WGUS75 KTWC 040358
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
858 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

AZC019-040408-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0187.000000T0000Z-260904T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
858 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
TOPAWA TO CHOULIC AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 11165 3169 11161 3181 11157 3185 11168
      3186 11179 3185 11186 3171 11180 3165 11181
      3165 11175

$$

EDWARDS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1208 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening through the weekend as tropical moisture
moves in. The main threat will be heavy rainfall leading to
areas of flash flooding. High temperature will will fluctuate
between normal and a few degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow has set up across the region, pulling in tropical
moisture from Hurricane Marie. PWATS over Southeast Arizona are
at the 90th percentile or higher for this early September. The
above normal moisture will prime the day for heavy rainfall
risk. The latest CAM model have confidence for this afternoon
storms to produce up to 1-1.5 inches with pockets up to 2 inches
in a short amount of time. Ground conditions are primed and can
react quickly to heavy rainfall because of the previous 48 hour
rainfall. Areas south of Tucson will be the most susceptible to
quicker response in washes and creeks and heighten risk for
flash flooding. As result, there is a Flash Flood Watch for the
eastern Pima (including Tucson metro), Santa Cruz County, and
eastern Cochise County (Benson south to Sierra Vista/Hereford)
for today and through the early tomorrow morning. Several models
continue to show activity lasting through the nighttime and
adding more rainfall accumulation.

Tomorrow, moisture will shift more east of Tucson, allowing
Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee Counties to have better chances
for rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts can be an
inch with localized higher amounts. WPC has a slight risk (<15%)
for flash flooding those counties. Thunderstorm activity will
drop around sunset.

Looking into the holiday weekend. The upper pattern will
generally stay the same with a closed low over the Pacific
Northwest and ridging to the east. Yet, the best chances for
rain showers and thunderstorms will mainly be confined to the
International Border and east of Tucson through the weekend.
Better widespread chances will return by next week with a
reemergence of deeper moisture.

Temperatures will be hovering near normal to slightly below
normal through the forecast period.

The 8-14 day CPC outlook has a 50-60% likely above normal
precipitation and 33-50% leaning above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 05/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 7-12k ft AGL through much of the forecast
period. Scattered TSRA/SHRA this afternoon and lasting through
the overnight period. Although the overnight TSRA/SHRA activity
will be more isolated. Near any thunderstorm will have strong
gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and brief lowering of ceilings.
Outside of thunderstorm winds, winds will be west to
southwesterly 5-10 kts and again after 04/18z. Light and terrain
driven at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect daily scattered thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening today into early next week. There will be
some variation in coverage day to day, but expect the bulk of
the activity from central Pima County eastward. Heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding will be the main threat. Temperatures
will be around normal to a few degrees below normal into early
next week. Minimum relative humidity values mainly 20 to 45
percent in the valleys and 30 to 60 percent in the mountains
over the next week. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph
and terrain driven through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ503-504-507-513-514.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
350 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Flash Flood      10 S Safford            32.69N 109.71W
09/03/2026                   Graham             AZ   Trained Spotter

            Water flowing across area roadways. 1.8
            inches of rain so far.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
355 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Rain             10 S Safford            32.69N 109.71W
09/03/2026  M1.82 Inch       Graham             AZ   Trained Spotter

            1.82 inches in 30 mins.

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
537 PM MST Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Flash Flood      4 SSE Safford           32.78N 109.68W
09/03/2026                   Graham             AZ   Public

            Flash flooding on Stockton Wash or Marijilda
            Creek at Double K Drive. At least 2 feet
            deep and flowing rapidly.

&&

JRM