Flash Flood Warning 177, NWS Tucson, AZ

152 
WGUS75 KTWC 022138
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
238 PM MST Wed Sep 2 2026

AZC023-022345-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0177.000000T0000Z-260902T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
238 PM MST Wed Sep 2 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 238 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms had produced
heavy rain across the warned area of the San Rafael Valley in
southeastern Santa Cruz county. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is
expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, streets as well
         as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lochiel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11065 3137 11070 3145 11070 3148 11067
      3148 11057 3146 11052 3141 11049 3137 11049
      3133 11050

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

EDWARDS

703 
WGUS75 KTWC 022342
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
442 PM MST Wed Sep 2 2026

AZC023-022352-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0177.000000T0000Z-260902T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
442 PM MST Wed Sep 2 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended over the San Rafael Valley in southeastern
Santa Cruz county. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.
Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11065 3137 11070 3145 11070 3148 11067
      3148 11057 3146 11052 3141 11049 3137 11049
      3133 11050

$$

EDWARDS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1004 AM MST Wed Sep 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Little more storm activity today compared to
yesterday, especially south of Tucson. Thursday into the
weekend tropical moisture moves in leading to a further increase
in storm coverage and chances with the main threat being heavy
rainfall. High temperature will will fluctuate between normal
and a few degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...Mostly sunny skies this morning across southeast Arizona
with towering cumulus over the higher terrain of southeast Arizona.
Plenty of lower level moisture with surface dewpoints ranging from
the low 60s eastern areas to mid 60s to lower 70s from Tucson
westward. PWAT values are around 1.1 inches east of Tucson to around
1.3 to 1.4 inches from Tucson westward. Given the higher lower level
moisture, convection will get off to an earlier start today from
late morning into the early afternoon. Main focus today for greater
coverage of storms (40 to 70 percent chances) will be across Santa
Cruz/south central Pima County, reaching northward into eastern Pima
County (Tucson Metro) and then eastward into SW Cochise County.
Primary threat will be locally heavy rainfall with isolated flash
flooding with secondary wind threat with gusts up to around 45 MPH.
See previous discussion below for additional information.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies are clearing across the CWA with just some
mid-level cloud cover east of Tucson. Aloft we are in a
transitional monsoon pattern with the ridge well to the east and
a closed low over the Pacific Northwest. There has been some
reduction in moisture over the past day, but PWATs are still
around normal. CAMs show a little more thunderstorm activity
today compared to Tuesday with storm chances extending north
into Tucson and southern Pinal County. But greatest coverage
and chances will still be south of Tucson. The 02/00Z HREF shows
a 20-50 percent chance for 1"-1.5" hourly rainfall rates from
Sells to Sierra Vista this afternoon and evening. This could
lead to isolated areas of flash flooding with a secondary threat
of strong gusty winds to 45 mph. Initial storms could form as
early as noon then continue an hour or two after sunset with
general motion to the north northeast.

Down in the tropics, tropical storm Marie is centered about 450
miles south of the southern tip of Baja moving northwestward. It
is forecasted to become a hurricane later this morning. As it
continues its northwestward track tropical moisture will begin
to be advected northward Thursday into the weekend. PWATs will
likely range from 1.4" near the AZ/NM border to 1.8" in western
Pima County. For Thursday this means expanded storm coverage
northward with scattered convection over most of the CWA from
central Pima County eastward. According to the HREF the heaviest
rainfall threat will be from Tucson southward. The main threat
again will be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

The tropical moisture sticks around through at least the
first part of next week, which will lead to daily afternoon and
evening thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall. Expect area
washes and rivers to be running by Friday into the weekend,
especially south of Tucson where soils are already fairly
saturated. Aloft the closed low remains over the Pacific
Northwest through Monday, then begins to move inland thereafter.
However ensembles bring another trough in right behind, so
expect Arizona to stay in a transitional monsoon pattern into
next week.

Over the next week high temperatures will fluctuate between
normal and a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z.
Expect SCT-BKN clouds 8-12k ft AGL late this morning into the
evening. TSRA coverage will likely increase compared to
yesterday with isolated to scattered TSRA from Tucson south and
eastward starting as early as 02/20Z and continuing through
03/04Z. KOLS will have the best chances to be impacted by a
storm. Near thunderstorms expect heavy rainfall and gusty winds
to 35 kts. Otherwise winds will be west northwest 5-10 kts this
afternoon and evening, and light and terrain driven at other
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated to scattered storms today
mainly from Tucson south and eastward. Storm chances and
coverage then increase Thursday into the weekend as tropical
moisture moves in. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will
be the main threat. Temperatures will be around normal to a few
degrees below normal today into early next week. Minimum
relative humidity values mainly 20 to 45 percent in the valleys
and 30 to 60 percent in the mountains over the next week. Winds
will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven
through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson