Flash Flood Warning 175, NWS Tucson, AZ

069 
WGUS75 KTWC 311915
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1215 PM MST Mon Aug 31 2026

AZC019-312115-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0175.000000T0000Z-260831T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
1215 PM MST Mon Aug 31 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 1215 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts
up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Marana, Sahuarita, Green Valley, Davis-Monthan Air Force
  Base, Casas Adobes, Drexel Heights, Flowing Wells, Corona De
  Tucson, South Tucson, Three Points, Avra Valley, Pascua Pueblo
  Yaqui Reservation, Tortolita, East Sahuarita, San Xavier Community,
  Valencia West, Summit, Tucson Estates and Tucson International
  Airport.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 19 between mile markers 31 and 63. Route 86 between mile
markers 146 and 171. Route 77 between mile markers 70 and 74.
Interstate 10 between mile markers 233 and 275. Route 286 between
mile markers 25 and 45. Route 83 between mile markers 42 and 45.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Manville Rd at Brawley Wash, Country Club Rd at Franco Wash, Houghton
Rd from I-10 & Sahuarita Rd, Santa Clara Ave at El Vado Wash, 1st Ave
north of Fort Lowell Rd, Stone Ave at Mabel St, Sahuarita Rd west of
Wilmot Rd, Twin Peaks Rd between Sanders and Sandario, Silverbell Rd
near Ina Rd, Camino De La Tierra at the Rillito River, Camino de
Oeste from Sweetwater to Gates Pass, Drexel Rd east of Alvernon Way,
Ironwood Hills Dr from Shannon to Camino de Oeste, Mark Rd from
Jeffery Rd to Los Reales Rd, Mission Rd from Valencia Rd to San
Xavier Rd, Old Vail COnnection Rd at Franco Wash, Sunset Rd west of
Camino de Oeste and Black Wash at S Camino de Oeste.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Brown Wash, Santa Cruz River, Rillito River, Box Canyon Wash, Seco,
  Arroyo, Cienega Creek, Banner Wash, Sopori Wash, Bolas Blancas
  Wash, Alambre Wash, Soto Wash, Pantano Wash, Thomas Canyon Wash,
  Guild Wash, Little Thomas Wash, Robles Wash, Los, Saucito Wash,
  Demetrie Wash, Arivaca Creek, Oro, Cañada del, South Mendoza Wash,
  West Branch Santa Cruz River, Mendoza Wash, Blanco Wash,
  Champurrado Wash, Altar Wash, Peñitas Wash, Fresno Wash, Cerro
  Prieto Wash, Chico, Arroyo, Gardner Canyon, Old Junction Wash,
  Fortynine Wash and Brawley Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11069 3171 11146 3233 11134 3250 11129
      3250 11121 3224 11086 3204 11076

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

KJS

767 
WGUS75 KTWC 312110
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 PM MST Mon Aug 31 2026

AZC019-312120-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0175.000000T0000Z-260831T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
210 PM MST Mon Aug 31 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Expect rivers, creeks, and washes to
continue to flow and drain for the next 1 to 3 hours. Otherwise,
flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11069 3171 11146 3233 11134 3250 11129
      3250 11121 3224 11086 3204 11076

$$

KJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
132 AM MST Mon Aug 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
early this morning, brief break mid-morning, then another round
of scattered storms this afternoon and evening. Storm chances
and coverage decease Tuesday and Wednesday, then increase again
Thursday into the weekend. High temperature will be below
normal to start the week then near normal Wednesday into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current radar shows scattered thunderstorms east
of Tucson with a few isolated storms west and north of Tucson
over Pinal County and central Pima County. The latest HRRR run
seems to be handling the convection east of Tucson well, but
does not show any of the convection west and north of Tucson.
These storms are likely being aided by a weak shortwave moving
through central Arizona. Storms east of Tucson will likely keep
moving north and produce moderate to heavy rainfall. At this
moment it is uncertain if Tucson will see any storms, there are
a couple outflows heading towards the metro from the east as
well as the north. This could kick off storms over the metro,
but confidence is low. This activity will likely continue
through the early morning, then a brief break or reduction in
coverage by mid to late morning. CAMs are showing another round
of scattered storms forming this afternoon and evening, but
activity from this morning could delay initiation and reduce
coverage or change where storms form. Still some uncertainty in
the forecast, but the threat is there for scattered convection.
Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding looks to be the main
threat with strong to severe wind gusts a secondary threat. For
this afternoon and evening hi-res guidance is favoring areas
west of Tucson over the Tohono O'Odham Nation. Because of this
the Flash Flood Watch has been extended west of Tucson through
10 PM today.

After today moisture values decrease some thanks to southwest
flow aloft ahead of trough over the west coast. The ridge will
be centered well to the east. The upper air pattern will remain
like this through the work week. Expect a downturn in monsoon
thunderstorm activity and coverage Tuesday and Wednesday with
isolated storms mainly south and east of Tucson. High
temperatures will be 2-6 degrees cooler than normal today into
Wednesday.

Down in the tropics the NHC is monitoring a tropical wave with
disorganized showers and thunderstorms well south of SW Mexico.
This will likely become the next named eastern Pacific tropical
storm in a couple days. Models bring this tropical system north
along the west coast of Baja late in the work week into the
weekend. Still fairly large differences in how close to the
coast the center will be. However there is growing confidence
that it will send tropical moisture up to southeast Arizona.
PWATs begin to increase as early as Thursday and could reach as
high as 2" over far western Pima County by this weekend. This
far out still hard to pin down exact impacts from this potential
increase in moisture, but do expect an increase in thunderstorm
coverage and chances as early as Thursday, continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA east of KTUS through 31/14Z with KDUG and KSAD
the main terminals impacted. Storms may form from outflows
moving into the Tucson metro this morning, but confidence is too
low to put mention of thunder in the TAF. Brief break in
convection later this morning then storm chances return to the
area after 31/20z through 01/04Z. Expect BKN cigs 7k-12k ft AGL
for most of the period. Outflow SFC winds near TSRA 30-40 kts
otherwise SFC winds mostly less than 10 kts and terrain driven.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this
morning continuing into the afternoon and evening today. Storms
will be capable of strong to severe wind gusts and heavy
rainfall. Storm chances and coverage decrease Tuesday and
Wednesday with activity mainly from Tucson south and eastward.
Then expect another increase in storm chances Thursday into the
weekend. Temperatures will be around normal today through the
coming work week. Minimum relative humidity values mainly 20 to
45 percent in the valleys and 30 to 60 percent in the mountains
over the next week. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph
and terrain driven through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ502.
Flood Watch until 5 AM MST early this morning for AZZ503>507-
513>515.

&&

Hardin

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