Flash Flood Warning 161, NWS Tucson, AZ

795 
WGUS75 KTWC 300029
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
529 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

AZC019-023-300130-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0161.000000T0000Z-260830T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-Santa Cruz AZ-
529 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

At 529 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is
expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Green Valley, Amado and Arivaca Junction.

This includes Interstate 19 between mile markers 29 and 35.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Sopori Wash, Old Junction Wash, Santa Cruz River and Demetrie Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 11115 3176 11118 3178 11119 3182 11118
      3184 11118 3191 11117 3188 11117 3186 11115
      3182 11104 3178 11100 3176 11102 3172 11104
      3171 11107 3172 11112 3171 11113

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JRM

288 
WGUS75 KTWC 300130
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
630 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

AZC019-023-300140-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0161.000000T0000Z-260830T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-Santa Cruz AZ-
630 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND
NORTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Monday for a portion
of Southeast Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 11115 3176 11118 3178 11119 3182 11118
      3184 11118 3191 11117 3188 11117 3186 11115
      3182 11104 3178 11100 3176 11102 3172 11104
      3171 11107 3172 11112 3171 11113

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect daily thunderstorms through at least Monday
with storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and heavy
rainfall. After Monday storm chances begin to decrease. High
temperatures will remain above normal Sunday through much of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper air pattern across Arizona continues to
transition into a Monsoon Type IV pattern with the upper high
to our east and an upper level trof to the NW. This pattern
brings an increased threat of severe storms, flash flooding, and
nocturnal storms this weekend into Monday.

Storms have been forming over the higher terrain early this
afternoon with further development over the next 3 to 6 hours. Main
threat from storms today will be strong gusty outflow winds, some
which may be briefly severe, blowing dust and heavy rain. The strong
outflow winds may produce areas of blowing dust across Pima and
Pinal counties where a blowing dust advisory is in effect from 4 pm
to 8 pm. With potential rainfall rates with some of the stronger
cores being 1-2"/hr, flash flooding is a threat, especially across
Pinal, Pima and Santa Cruz county where a flash flood watch is in
effect. Not everyone will see heavy rain or rain at all in the flash
flood watch area. Tonight, across central Sonora MX near Hermosillo,
a decaying MCS may send a strong outflow north towards the area and
kick off some elevated storms across the central part of the
forecast, or mainly across Santa Cruz, eastern Pima and western
Cochise counties.

Sunday: after lingering morning convection ends, storms will be
developing over the higher terrain early afternoon and work their
way into the lower elevations. Another chance of localized severe
storms and flash flooding. Can't rule out storms continuing late
Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Monday: Likely a later start to convection with less areal coverage
of storms.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Low-grade monsoon days as the monsoon
calendar turns to September and possible tropical influences
during the month.

Speaking of the tropics, NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed
weather, associated with a tropical wave, well south of SW Mexico.
This may become the next named eastern Pacific tropical storm with
some model guidance indicating that the potential track will be
further east than where current Tropical storm Karina is at, and
closer to Baja by the end of next week. Confidence low this far out
but something to keep an eye on.

Temperature wise, today is the last day of the almost two-week long
Extreme Heat Warning. Highs will thus be cooler during the next 7
days but still running, except for Monday and Tuesday, above normal
for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/00Z.
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA thru 30/06z, bcmg ISOLD btwn 30/06z and 30/12z.
Chance of storms returning to the area aft 30/20z. Outflow SFC winds
nr TSRA 35-45 kts otrw SFC winds mostly less than 10 kts and terrain
driven. Clouds thru much of valid pd, SCT-BKN 8k-12k ft AGL.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Monday (30 to 70 percent daily thunderstorm
chances). Storms will be capable of strong to severe wind gusts and
heavy rainfall. After Monday storm chances and coverage decrease
with activity mainly from Tucson south and eastward. Temperatures
will remain above normal today with a cooling trend this weekend
into early next week. Minimum relative humidity values mainly 15 to
30 percent in the valleys and 20 to 40 percent in the mountains
today. Minimum RH values increase to 20 to 50 percent starting
Sunday into next week. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph
and terrain driven through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for
  AZZ501>509.
 Flood Watch through late Sunday night for AZZ502>507-513>515.
 Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-
 502-504-505.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
326 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 W Green Valley        31.87N 111.15W
08/29/2026  M66 MPH          Pima               AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet wind gust recorded wind gust of 66
            mph.

&&

JVT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
329 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     13 NE Patagonia         31.67N 110.59W
08/29/2026  M55 MPH          Santa Cruz         AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet recorded wind gust of 55 mph.

&&

JVT